Understanding Risk and Financial Crisis with Complexity Theory
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Köp båda 2 för 650 krThe latest developments in chaos theory - from an industry expert Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the first book to introduce and popularize chaos as it applies to finance. It has since become the classic source on the topic. This new e...
A leading pioneer in the field offers practical applications of this innovative science. Peters describes complex concepts in an easy-to-follow manner for the non-mathematician. He uses fractals, rescaled range analysis and nonlinear dynamical mod...
Edgar E. Peters's latest book, Patterns in the Dark: Understanding Risk and Financial Crisis with Complexity Theory is not merely an autobiographical indulgence. The bulk of the book is Peters's lucent analysis expounding on the need for uncertainty. Whether he uses the example of genetic algorithms to show how randomness can lead a process to a goal even when the ultimate path is unknown, or if he simply shows how David Bowie's creation of Ziggie Stardust illustrates the integration of two seemingly contrary elements in the creative process (with a nod toward uncertainty as a requirement for stability), Peters's always seems to provide compelling insight into how global structure and local randomness interact. Edgar E. Peters's latest book, Patterns in the Dark: Understanding Risk and Financial Crisis with Complexity Theory is not merely an autobiographical indulgence. The bulk of the book is Peters's lucent analysis expounding on the need for uncertainty. Whether he uses the example of genetic algorithms to show how randomness can lead a process to a goal even when the ultimate path is unknown, or if he simply shows how David Bowie's creation of Ziggie Stardust illustrates the integration of two seemingly contrary elements in the creative process (with a nod toward uncertainty as a requirement for stability), Peters's always seems to provide compelling insight into how global structure and local randomness interact. Ultimately, the book's implications for "global structure" policymakers are more clear than any prescriptions that might be handed down to individual investors acting in an environment of local randomness. However, the discussions regarding various process models and their implications for economic activity are worth the price of admission alone. Interested investors ought to check it out.--("Fool On The Hill - An Investment Opinion" by Alex Schay - June 1999)
EDGAR E. PETERS is Chief Investment Strategist for PanAgora Asset Management. He is the author of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets: A New View of Cycles, Prices, and Market Volatility and Fractal Market Analysis: Applying Chaos Theory to Investment and Economics, both published by Wiley.
Introduction: Life, Risk, and Uncertainty. UNCERTAINTY, COMPLEXITY, AND SPONTANEOUS ORGANIZATION. Imposing Order: Conspiracies and the Mathematics of Ignorance. Uncertainty, Vagueness, and Ambiguity: The Need for Information. Complexity and Time: The Dynamics of Uncertainty. FREE MARKETS AND THE NEED FOR UNCERTAINTY. Subjectivism: "The Economics of Time and Ignorance." Diversity and Knowledge. Crisis and Competition: Creative Destruction in Free Markets. Economic Evolution: Change in Real Time. Creativity: Uncertainty, Innovation, and Entrepreneurs. Rules and Law: Limits in Complexity. Degrees of Order: Balancing Rules, Freedom, and Uncertainty. The Need for Uncertainty. References. Index.