Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis (häftad)
Häftad (Paperback)
Antal sidor
CQ Press
Heuer, Richards J. / Pherson, Randolph H.
205 x 180 x 32 mm
584 g
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Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Häftad, Engelska, 2010-03-16


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Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise into formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail and utility from existing handbooks.

Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically explained: when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins.


Getting Started Checklist

Customer Checklist

Issue Redefinition

Chronologies and Timelines


Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing


Network Analysis

Mind Maps and Concept Maps

Process Maps and Gantt Charts

Structured Brainstorming

Virtual Brainstorming

Nominal Group Technique


Cross-Impact Matrix

Morphological Analysis

Quadrant Crunching

Basic Scenario Analysis

Alternative Futures Analysis

Multiple Scenario Generation


Indicators Validator

Simple Hypothesis

Multiple Hypotheses Generator

Quadrant Hypothesis Generation

Diagnostic Reasoning

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Argument Mapping

Deception Detection

Key Assumptions Check

Structured Analogies

Role Playing

Red Hat Analysis

Outside-In Thinking

Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model

Prediction Markets

Premortem Analysis

Structured Self-Critique

What If? Analysis

High Impact/Low Probability Analysis

Devil's Advocacy

Red Team Analysis

Delphi Method

Adversarial Collaboration

Structured Debate

Complexity Manager

Decision Matrix

Force Field Analysis


SWOT Analysis
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Richards J. Heuer Jr. is best known for his book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis and for developing and then guiding automation of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique. Both are being used to teach and train intelligence analysts throughout the Intelligence Community and in a growing number of academic programs on intelligence or national security. Long retired from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Mr. Heuer has nevertheless been associated with the Intelligence Community in various roles for more than five decades and has written extensively on personnel security, counterintelligence, deception, and intelligence analysis. He has a B.A. in philosophy from Williams College and an M.A. in international relations from the University of Southern California, and has pursued other graduate studies at the University of California at Berkeley and the University of Michigan.

Randolph H. Pherson, Chief Executive Officer of Globalytica, LLC, helps businesses and governments develop robust analytic capabilities within their organizations. He has authored seven books on structured analytic techniques, critical thinking and writing skills, strategic foresight analysis, and communicating analysis in the digital age. He collaborated with Richards J. Heuer Jr. in launching the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) method, and they are coauthors of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed., 2015. Mr. Pherson has taught courses at the London School of Economics, Liverpool Hope University, England; the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin; Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid; and the Autonomous University of Barcelona. He developed and holds the patent for a suite of collaborative Web-based software tools, TH!NK Suite. 

Mr. Pherson is also President of Pherson Associates, LLC and a founding Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. In 2000, he completed a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community, most recently serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector Generals staff, and developed and implemented a strategic planning process for the CIA. He is the recipient of the CIAs Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO for Latin America and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his AB from Dartmouth College and his MA in International Relations from Yale University.