Jonathan Wilkenfeld – författare

This new book shows how international crises are dangerous episodes that can be destabilizing not only to the actors directly involved but also to the entire international system. Recognizing the primacy of crises as defining moments in international relations, scholars and policy makers alike are increasingly concerned with identifying mechanisms for crisis prevention, management and resolution. Mediating International Crises is the first comprehensive study into one such mechanism that has been used with increasing frequency in the 20th Century: mediation by a third party. This important research attempts to determine whether third party mediation is an effective means of alleviating or managing the turbulent and violent consequences of crises. The authors examine three approaches to mediation: facilitation communication between parties, formulating possible agreements and manipulating the parties through sanctions or rewards. They explore how these mediation approaches affect crisis outcomes through sanctions or rewards The book begins with a thorough discussion of the theoretical literature on mediation, with particular attention paid to the important distinction between crisis management and conflict resolution. The authors then provide empirical analyses of instances of mediation in 20th century international crises, which is supplemented with data derived from simulated negotiation settings with human subjects.

This new book shows how international crises are dangerous episodes that can be destabilizing not only to the actors directly involved but also to the entire international system. Recognizing the primacy of crises as defining moments in international relations, scholars and policy makers alike are increasingly concerned with identifying mechanisms for crisis prevention, management and resolution. Mediating International Crises is the first comprehensive study into one such mechanism that has been used with increasing frequency in the 20th Century: mediation by a third party. This important research attempts to determine whether third party mediation is an effective means of alleviating or managing the turbulent and violent consequences of crises. The authors examine three approaches to mediation: facilitation communication between parties, formulating possible agreements and manipulating the parties through sanctions or rewards. They explore how these mediation approaches affect crisis outcomes through sanctions or rewards The book begins with a thorough discussion of the theoretical literature on mediation, with particular attention paid to the important distinction between crisis management and conflict resolution. The authors then provide empirical analyses of instances of mediation in 20th century international crises, which is supplemented with data derived from simulated negotiation settings with human subjects.

Perhaps more than ever, we need to invest in the study of the causes and consequences of crises. Since its founding in 1975, the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project has aimed to better equip academics, policymakers, and the next generation of engaged citizens to make sense of why crises arise and how they can be more effectively managed and prevented. The ICB Project’s data holdings consist of full-length qualitative case studies, along with an expanding range of quantitative datasets that include information regarding the characteristics of the states in crisis, crisis behavior, attempts at third-party crisis management, the role of nonstate actors, and the system-level context.A Century of International Crisis Behavior summarizes the evolving patterns of international crisis behavior in the more than 500 cases cataloged since 1918, provides an accounting of the state of the scholarship to make sense of the patterns, and presents new findings that advance our understanding. Chapters are grouped according to their level of analysis: studies of systems, dyads, and states. The authors highlight what we have learned and what we have yet to learn regarding the prevention, escalation, and de-escalation of international crises.

Perhaps more than ever, we need to invest in the study of the causes and consequences of crises. Since its founding in 1975, the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project has aimed to better equip academics, policymakers, and the next generation of engaged citizens to make sense of why crises arise and how they can be more effectively managed and prevented. The ICB Project’s data holdings consist of full-length qualitative case studies, along with an expanding range of quantitative datasets that include information regarding the characteristics of the states in crisis, crisis behavior, attempts at third-party crisis management, the role of nonstate actors, and the system-level context.A Century of International Crisis Behavior summarizes the evolving patterns of international crisis behavior in the more than 500 cases cataloged since 1918, provides an accounting of the state of the scholarship to make sense of the patterns, and presents new findings that advance our understanding. Chapters are grouped according to their level of analysis: studies of systems, dyads, and states. The authors highlight what we have learned and what we have yet to learn regarding the prevention, escalation, and de-escalation of international crises.

The process of negotiation, standing as it does between war and peace in many parts of the globe, has never been a more vital process to understand than in today's rapidly changing international system. Students of negotiation must first understand key IR concepts as they try to incorporate the dynamics of the many anomalous actors that regularly interact with conventional state agents in the diplomatic arena. This hands-on text provides an essential introduction to this high-stakes realm, exploring the impact of complex multilateralism on traditional negotiation concepts such as bargaining, issue salience, and strategic choice. Using an easy-to-understand board game analogy as a framework for studying negotiation episodes, the authors include a rich array of real-world cases and examples to illustrate key themes, including the intensity of crisis situations for negotiators, the role of culture in communication, and the impact of domestic-level politics on international negotiations. Providing tools for analyzing why negotiations succeed or fail, this innovative text also presents effective exercises and learning approaches that enable students to understand the complexities of negotiation by engaging in the diplomatic process themselves.

The process of negotiation, standing as it does between war and peace in many parts of the globe, has never been a more vital process to understand than in today's rapidly changing international system. Students of negotiation must first understand key IR concepts as they try to incorporate the dynamics of the many anomalous actors that regularly interact with conventional state agents in the diplomatic arena. This hands-on text provides an essential introduction to this high-stakes realm, exploring the impact of complex multilateralism on traditional negotiation concepts such as bargaining, issue salience, and strategic choice. Using an easy-to-understand board game analogy as a framework for studying negotiation episodes, the authors include a rich array of real-world cases and examples to illustrate key themes, including the intensity of crisis situations for negotiators, the role of culture in communication, and the impact of domestic-level politics on international negotiations. Providing tools for analyzing why negotiations succeed or fail, this innovative text also presents effective exercises and learning approaches that enable students to understand the complexities of negotiation by engaging in the diplomatic process themselves.

Peace and Conflict is a new biennial publication that provides key data and documents trends in national and international conflicts ranging from isolated acts of terrorism to internal civil strife to full-fledged intercountry war. A major trend it tracks is the incidence of wars beyond the protracted conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. For 2010, Peace & Conflict adds a new regular feature-Trends in Global Terrorism-and focuses on the theme of Challenges of Post-Conflict Transitions. It covers special topics including women and post-conflict settings, and truth commissions and tribunals. Peace and Conflict is a large format, full-color reference including numerous graphs, tables, maps, and appendices dedicated to the visual presentation of data. Crisp narratives are highlighted with pull-quote extracts that summarize trends and major findings such as the continuing increase in high casualty terrorist acts and the likelihood of genocide risk in certain areas.

Peace and Conflict is a new biennial publication that provides key data and documents trends in national and international conflicts ranging from isolated acts of terrorism to internal civil strife to full-fledged intercountry war. A major trend it tracks is the incidence of wars beyond the protracted conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. For 2010, Peace & Conflict adds a new regular feature-Trends in Global Terrorism-and focuses on the theme of Challenges of Post-Conflict Transitions. It covers special topics including women and post-conflict settings, and truth commissions and tribunals. Peace and Conflict is a large format, full-color reference including numerous graphs, tables, maps, and appendices dedicated to the visual presentation of data. Crisp narratives are highlighted with pull-quote extracts that summarize trends and major findings such as the continuing increase in high casualty terrorist acts and the likelihood of genocide risk in certain areas.

Peace and Conflict is a biennial publication that provides key data and follows trends in national and international conflicts ranging from isolated acts of terrorism to internal civil strife to full-fledged inter-country war. A major trend it tracks is the incidence of wars beyond the protracted conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Peace and Conflict 2012 focuses on the theme of policy guidance for preventing conflict. It covers special topics with original contributions that focus on mediation, economic recovery, and the impact of elections. Peace and Conflict is a large-format reference book including numerous graphs, tables, maps, and appendices dedicated to the visual presentation of data. Crisp narratives are highlighted with box quote extracts that summarise trends and major findings such as the continuing increase in high casualty terrorist acts and risk of genocide in certain areas.

Peace and Conflict is a biennial publication that provides key data and follows trends in national and international conflicts ranging from isolated acts of terrorism to internal civil strife to full-fledged inter-country war. A major trend it tracks is the incidence of wars beyond the protracted conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Peace and Conflict 2012 focuses on the theme of policy guidance for preventing conflict. It covers special topics with original contributions that focus on mediation, economic recovery, and the impact of elections. Peace and Conflict is a large-format reference book including numerous graphs, tables, maps, and appendices dedicated to the visual presentation of data. Crisp narratives are highlighted with box quote extracts that summarise trends and major findings such as the continuing increase in high casualty terrorist acts and risk of genocide in certain areas.

Peace and Conflict is a biennial publication that provides cutting-edge data and analysis concerning domestic and international conflicts and corresponding peacebuilding activities. The book include forecasts of risks of political and social instability, as well as trends and patterns in conflict. The 2014 edition focusses on the 'micro level' in the study of conflict and peacebuilding, such as social relationships below the level of the nation-state, with attention to key topics such as ethnicity, climate change, foreign aid and sexual violence. Peace and Conflict is a large-format, full-color resource with numerous graphs, tables, maps, and appendices dedicated to the visual and summary presentation of information. Crisp narratives are highlighted with pull-quote extracts emphasizing major findings.

Peace and Conflict is a biennial publication that provides cutting-edge data and analysis concerning domestic and international conflicts and corresponding peacebuilding activities. The book include forecasts of risks of political and social instability, as well as trends and patterns in conflict. The 2014 edition focusses on the 'micro level' in the study of conflict and peacebuilding, such as social relationships below the level of the nation-state, with attention to key topics such as ethnicity, climate change, foreign aid and sexual violence. Peace and Conflict is a large-format, full-color resource with numerous graphs, tables, maps, and appendices dedicated to the visual and summary presentation of information. Crisp narratives are highlighted with pull-quote extracts emphasizing major findings.

Recent generations have experienced dramatic improvements in the quality of human life across the globe. Wars between states are fought less frequently and are less lethal. Food is more plentiful and more easily accessed. In most parts of the world, birthrates are down and life expectancy up. Significantly fewer people live in extreme poverty, relative to the overall population. Statistics would argue that the human race has never before flourished as it has in this moment.And yet, even with this progress, we face a number of seemingly intractable challenges to the welfare of both states and individuals, including:Governmental instability undermining the lives of citizens, both within and beyond their borders;Persistent and recurring intrastate conflict due to ineffective conflict management strategies;Marginally successful development efforts and growing income inequality, both within and between nations, as a result of uncoordinated and ineffective global development strategies;Internecine conflict in multiethnic societies, manifested by exclusion, discrimination, and ultimately violence, the inevitable consequence of an insufficient focus on managing the inherent tensions in diverse societies;Global climate change with the possibility of catastrophic long-term consequences, following an inability to effectively come to terms with and respond to the impact of human activity on our environment.These challenges require a newly collaborative, intentional, and systematic approach. This book offers a blueprint for how to get there, calling for increased leadership responsibility, clarity of mission, and empowerment of states and individuals. It is designed to transform lofty but often vague agendas into concrete, measurable progress. It believes in the capacity of humanity to rise to the occasion, to come together to address these increasingly critical global problems, and offers one way forward.

Recent generations have experienced dramatic improvements in the quality of human life across the globe. Wars between states are fought less frequently and are less lethal. Food is more plentiful and more easily accessed. In most parts of the world, birthrates are down and life expectancy up. Significantly fewer people live in extreme poverty, relative to the overall population. Statistics would argue that the human race has never before flourished as it has in this moment.And yet, even with this progress, we face a number of seemingly intractable challenges to the welfare of both states and individuals, including:Governmental instability undermining the lives of citizens, both within and beyond their borders;Persistent and recurring intrastate conflict due to ineffective conflict management strategies;Marginally successful development efforts and growing income inequality, both within and between nations, as a result of uncoordinated and ineffective global development strategies;Internecine conflict in multiethnic societies, manifested by exclusion, discrimination, and ultimately violence, the inevitable consequence of an insufficient focus on managing the inherent tensions in diverse societies;Global climate change with the possibility of catastrophic long-term consequences, following an inability to effectively come to terms with and respond to the impact of human activity on our environment.These challenges require a newly collaborative, intentional, and systematic approach. This book offers a blueprint for how to get there, calling for increased leadership responsibility, clarity of mission, and empowerment of states and individuals. It is designed to transform lofty but often vague agendas into concrete, measurable progress. It believes in the capacity of humanity to rise to the occasion, to come together to address these increasingly critical global problems, and offers one way forward.

Current conceptions of mediation can often fail to capture the complexity and intricacy of modern conflicts. This Research Handbook addresses this problem by presenting the leading expert opinions on international mediation, examining how international mediation practices, mechanisms and institutions should adapt to the changing characteristics of contemporary international crises.Chapters consider the challenges facing the international community when aiming to achieve lasting resolutions in intrastate and interstate conflicts during acute periods of crisis and potential or actual violence escalation. The authors also provide much-needed context for 'gray zone conflict', the actions of non-state actors, gender dynamics and biases that hinder mediation. The ever-expanding role of mediation means authors also cover human security, climate diplomacy and cyber disputes. Using extensive analysis of salient cases as well as quantitative studies of aggregate trends, this Research Handbook is the vital reference work for mediation in contemporary international politics. The concluding chapter explores the overarching themes and key policy recommendations from the leading voices in mediation.An essential reference for postgraduate researchers of international politics, this Research Handbook provides both quantitative and qualitative analysis to further case knowledge for research. In addition, the case studies and concluding chapter will be a much-needed resource for policymakers and practitioners in defence policy and peace advocacy due to their emphasis on lessons learned and best practice.Contributors include: P. Aall, Z. Bakaki, J.A. Bangerter, M. Barrett, K. Beardsley, D. Belo, T. Böhmelt, A. Boutellis, M. Brecher, D. Carment, A.B. Çelik, K. Christie, C.A. Crocker, D.E. Cunningham, K. DeRouen Jr., P.F. Diehl, Y. Duman, S.S. Gartner, M. Gelfand, S. Gent, Z. Goncz, J.M. Greig, F.O. Hampson, E. Hoffman, P.T. Hopmann, L. Hultman, L. Kemp, R.C. Maness, M.M. Melin, E.J. Menninga, M. Nikolko, P. Olander, A.P. Owsiak, D. Quinn, L. Reid, M. Sarver, N. Schreffler, J.A. Stevenson, I. Svensson, B. Valeriano, S. Vukovic, P.B. White, J. Wilkenfeld, M.-J. Zahar, I.W. Zartman

Current conceptions of mediation can often fail to capture the complexity and intricacy of modern conflicts. This Research Handbook addresses this problem by presenting the leading expert opinions on international mediation, examining how international mediation practices, mechanisms and institutions should adapt to the changing characteristics of contemporary international crises.Chapters consider the challenges facing the international community when aiming to achieve lasting resolutions in intrastate and interstate conflicts during acute periods of crisis and potential or actual violence escalation. The authors also provide much-needed context for 'gray zone conflict', the actions of non-state actors, gender dynamics and biases that hinder mediation. The ever-expanding role of mediation means authors also cover human security, climate diplomacy and cyber disputes. Using extensive analysis of salient cases as well as quantitative studies of aggregate trends, this Research Handbook is the vital reference work for mediation in contemporary international politics. The concluding chapter explores the overarching themes and key policy recommendations from the leading voices in mediation.An essential reference for postgraduate researchers of international politics, this Research Handbook provides both quantitative and qualitative analysis to further case knowledge for research. In addition, the case studies and concluding chapter will be a much-needed resource for policymakers and practitioners in defence policy and peace advocacy due to their emphasis on lessons learned and best practice.Contributors include: P. Aall, Z. Bakaki, J.A. Bangerter, M. Barrett, K. Beardsley, D. Belo, T. Böhmelt, A. Boutellis, M. Brecher, D. Carment, A.B. Çelik, K. Christie, C.A. Crocker, D.E. Cunningham, K. DeRouen Jr., P.F. Diehl, Y. Duman, S.S. Gartner, M. Gelfand, S. Gent, Z. Goncz, J.M. Greig, F.O. Hampson, E. Hoffman, P.T. Hopmann, L. Hultman, L. Kemp, R.C. Maness, M.M. Melin, E.J. Menninga, M. Nikolko, P. Olander, A.P. Owsiak, D. Quinn, L. Reid, M. Sarver, N. Schreffler, J.A. Stevenson, I. Svensson, B. Valeriano, S. Vukovic, P.B. White, J. Wilkenfeld, M.-J. Zahar, I.W. Zartman

This insightful and timely book considers the role of great-power competition in what has come to be known as gray zone conflict. Based on cutting-edge empirical research, it addresses the question: how can interactions between adversaries in international crises be managed in ways which avoid dangerous escalation?Drawing together diverse perspectives, an interdisciplinary team of academics and policy analysts take a data-driven approach to analyzing international crises over the past 100 years. Taking the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a backdrop for critical evaluation, chapters examine US and NATO approaches to the management of escalation in asymmetric conflicts. Ultimately, the book identifies areas where classical deterrence theory is incompatible with the realities of the contemporary conflict environment, and proposes innovative tools for managing crises in the future. Providing historical overviews of escalation management in international crises, this comprehensive book is essential reading for students and scholars of international politics, international relations, terrorism and security, and foreign policy, particularly those studying Chinese, Russian and US strategic decision making. It will also be beneficial to policy analysts, military leaders, and journalists focusing on contemporary international issues.