Visar resultat för..."Black Swan"
545 produkter
545 produkter
Häftad, Engelska, 2010
174 kr
Skickas
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible. For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan.
Häftad, Engelska, 2008
160 kr
Skickas
The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertaintyWhat have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. 'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent
Inbunden, Engelska, 2007
347 kr
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Häftad, Svenska, 2025
227 kr
Skickas inom 5-8 vardagar
Häftad, Engelska, 2025
227 kr
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Häftad, Engelska, 2007
141 kr
Skickas
Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable?This book is the bestselling sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist.'One of the smartest books of all time' Fortune'An iconoclastic tour de force ... nothing escapes his Exocets' Evening Standard'Brilliant' John Kay'Excellent and thought-provoking ... an entertaining book' Financial Times'Wall Street's principal dissident' Malcolm Gladwell
Häftad, Engelska, 2013
160 kr
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'Really made me think about how I think' - Mohsin Hamid, author of Exit WestTough times don't last. Tough people do. In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. Here Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls antifragile are things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: the antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.'The hottest thinker in the world' Bryan Appleyard, Sunday Times
Inbunden, Engelska, 2022
304 kr
Skickas inom 5-8 vardagar
Häftad, Engelska, 1990
533 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Thomas Mann's bold and disturbing novella, written in 1952, is the feminine counterpart of his masterpiece Death in Venice. Written from the point of view of a woman in what we might now call mid-life crisis, The Black Swan evinces Mann's mastery of psychological analysis and his compelling interest in the intersection of the physical and the spiritual in human behavior. It is startlingly relevant to current discussions of the politics of the body, male inscriptions of the feminine, and discourse about and of women. The new introduction places this dramatic novella in the context of contemporary feminist and literary concerns, bringing it to the attention of a new generation of readers.
Häftad, Engelska, 2024
122 kr
Skickas
WINNER OF THE JAPANESE DETECTIVE WRITERS CLUB PRIZE
_____This prize-winning railway murder mystery from Japan is a crime classic perfect for fans of Agatha Christie and Seicho Matsumoto.
_____Early one morning, a body is found lying next to the railway tracks just outside of Kuki Station in Saitama Prefecture, shot dead. It is identified as belonging to the owner of a local mill which is embroiled in a labour dispute. Suspicion initially falls on the workers' union, then on a new religious sect that has been gaining followers recently.
Chief Inspector Onitsura and his assistant Tanna are called in to investigate, and soon set off in a journey across Japan, from Tokyo to Kyoto and Osaka, and finally to the island of Kyushu, in a hunt for the killer.
But as they investigate, the killer strikes again, and again. Will they be able to catch the murderer before even more people are slain?
Häftad, Engelska, 2007
137 kr
Skickas inom 5-8 vardagar
'ONE OF THE MOST BRILLIANTLY INVENTIVE WRITERS OF THIS, OR ANY, COUNTRY' INDEPENDENTShortlisted for the Costa Novel Award and longlisted for the Booker Prize'Gorgeous'DAILY MAIL'Uproariously funny'EVENING STANDARD'Spellbinding'TATLER'Brilliant'NEW YORK TIMES BOOK REVIEW'Luminously beautiful'THE TIMESThe Sunday Times bestselling fourth novel from the critically acclaimed author of Ghostwritten and Cloud AtlasJanuary, 1982. Thirteen-year-old Jason Taylor - covert stammerer and reluctant poet - anticipates a stultifying year in his backwater English village. But he hasn't reckoned with bullies, simmering family discord, the Falklands War, a threatened gypsy invasion and those mysterious entities known as girls. Charting thirteen months in the black hole between childhood and adolescence, this is a captivating novel, wry, painful and vibrant with the stuff of life.PRAISE FOR DAVID MITCHELL'A thrilling and gifted writer'FINANCIAL TIMES'Dizzyingly, dazzlingly good'DAILY MAIL'Mitchell is, clearly, a genius'NEW YORK TIMES BOOK REVIEW'An author of extraordinary ambition and skill'INDEPENDENT ON SUNDAY'A superb storyteller'THE NEW YORKER
Inbunden, Engelska, 2010
256 kr
Skickas inom 5-8 vardagar
Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard--many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance.He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal--our computers and our minds--Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.
Häftad, Engelska, 2002
281 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Häftad, Engelska, 2021
323 kr
Skickas inom 10-15 vardagar
Combining memoir and studies in the Environmental Humanities, Black Swan Song weaves together an autobiographically-based account of the unique life and work of Rod Giblett. For over 25 years he was a leading local wetland conservationist, environmental activist, and pioneer transdisciplinary researcher and writer of fiction and non-fiction. He has researched, written, and published more than 25 books in the environmental humanities, especially wetland cultural studies, and psychoanalytic ecology. Black Swan Song traces Rod’s early and later life and work from being born in Borneo as the child of Christian missionaries, through his childhood in Bible College, being a High School dropout and studying at three universities to becoming an academic, activist and author, and now a writer. Following in the footsteps of New Lives of the Saints: Twelve Environmental Apostles, Black Swan Song also comprises conversations in conservation counter-theology between the twelve minor biblical prophets and twelve environmental apostles, such as Henry David Thoreau, Aldo Leopold, John Muir, and Rachel Carson. It also introduces the lives and works of twelve more environmental apostles, such as John Clare, Rebecca Solnit, John Charles Ryan, and others who have made a valuable contribution to green thinking and living. Black Swan Song mixes modes and genres, such as memoir, essay, story, criticism, etc., making up the writer’s black swan song. It provides ways of living and being with the earth in dark and troubled times by providing resources of a journey of hope for learning to live bio- and psycho-symbiotic livelihoods in bioregional home habitats of the living earth and in the Symbiocene, the hoped-for age superseding the Anthropocene.
Häftad, Engelska, 2010
282 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Häftad, Engelska, 2020
281 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Pocket, Engelska, 2022
158 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Häftad, Engelska, 2007
263 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Häftad, Engelska, 2002
283 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Winner of the 2001 Cave Canem PrizeSelected by Marilyn NelsonFinalist, 2003 Paterson Poetry Prize"Imagine Leda black—" begins Lyrae Van Clief-Stefanon’s exciting new collection of poems. Mixing vernacular language with classical mythology, modern struggles with Biblical trials, she gives voice to silenced women past and present.In Van Clief-Stefanon’s powerful voice, last night’s angry words "puffed / into the dark room like steam / punching through the thick surface / of cooking grits." She remembers a child’s innocence "lost / in the house where I learned the red rug / against my chest, my knees / my tongue, . . . ." Black Swan is filled with pain, loss, hope, and the promise of salvation.
Häftad, Engelska
289 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Häftad, Engelska, 2024
155 kr
Skickas inom 5-8 vardagar
Häftad, Engelska, 2006
234 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Häftad, Engelska
245 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Del 1 - Maxine the Queen Blogger
Maxine The Queen Blogger: Plays Chess
Häftad, Engelska, 2018
191 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Inbunden, Engelska, 2022
385 kr
Skickas inom 5-8 vardagar
Häftad, Engelska, 2022
202 kr
Skickas inom 5-8 vardagar
Häftad, Engelska, 2025
187 kr
Skickas inom 5-8 vardagar
Häftad, Engelska, 2024
559 kr
Skickas inom 10-15 vardagar
Of course, anyone would want to wake up from a really bad dream - especially one that seemed like it may never end, while successively stripping away joys and conveniences of our modern living. The COVID-19 pandemic bestowed on us a collective nightmare experience of varying intensity, akin to a "Black Swan" event, as author and mathematical philosopher Nassim Taleb might describe—given its universal rarity and devastating effects and seeming predictability in hindsight. However, we may remember this remarkable time in our history rather as a "White Swan" event—one that catalyzed a more common occurrence of evolving Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles, a mainstreaming of sustainability—fueled by the digital innovations that designed ways to survive and thrive into a new, and more holistic, world order. Now, as we emerge from the remnants of the pandemic’s aftermath, we find ourselves at the late dawn of a new geologic epoch—the "Anthropocene"—where the impact of humans on the planet’s geology and ecosystems looms so monumentally that the gravest threat to our existence stems from our own actions. Contained within these pages, you will discover insights from leaders across diverse domains—community, industry, public administration, and the investment community. Through their own experiences, we unfurl "White Swan sightings"— moments when sustainability flourished in response to reverberations of the COVID-19 virus. More poignantly, the journey ahead carries us beyond the realm of the Black Swan, while the acceleration of digital innovations equips us to herald a new era out of the Anthropocene and into a new one, with sustainability innovations as a critical placemat. The humanistic seismic shifts caused by the Pandemic will generate a future of holistic interoperability between digital and organic matters. We are on the brink of designing unprecedented harmony with each other and equilibrium of regenerative growth with the world around us. The urgency has never been greater, nor the possibilities so profound.
Inbunden, Engelska, 2024
2 137 kr
Skickas inom 10-15 vardagar
Of course, anyone would want to wake up from a really bad dream - especially one that seemed like it may never end, while successively stripping away joys and conveniences of our modern living. The COVID-19 pandemic bestowed on us a collective nightmare experience of varying intensity, akin to a "Black Swan" event, as author and mathematical philosopher Nassim Taleb might describe—given its universal rarity and devastating effects and seeming predictability in hindsight. However, we may remember this remarkable time in our history rather as a "White Swan" event—one that catalyzed a more common occurrence of evolving Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles, a mainstreaming of sustainability—fueled by the digital innovations that designed ways to survive and thrive into a new, and more holistic, world order. Now, as we emerge from the remnants of the pandemic’s aftermath, we find ourselves at the late dawn of a new geologic epoch—the "Anthropocene"—where the impact of humans on the planet’s geology and ecosystems looms so monumentally that the gravest threat to our existence stems from our own actions. Contained within these pages, you will discover insights from leaders across diverse domains—community, industry, public administration, and the investment community. Through their own experiences, we unfurl "White Swan sightings"— moments when sustainability flourished in response to reverberations of the COVID-19 virus. More poignantly, the journey ahead carries us beyond the realm of the Black Swan, while the acceleration of digital innovations equips us to herald a new era out of the Anthropocene and into a new one, with sustainability innovations as a critical placemat. The humanistic seismic shifts caused by the Pandemic will generate a future of holistic interoperability between digital and organic matters. We are on the brink of designing unprecedented harmony with each other and equilibrium of regenerative growth with the world around us. The urgency has never been greater, nor the possibilities so profound.
Inbunden, Engelska, 2022
328 kr
Skickas inom 5-8 vardagar
An incisive framework for companies seeking to increase their resilienceIn The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty, renowned risk and finance expert Håkan Jankensgård delivers an extraordinary and startling discussion of how firms should navigate a world of uncertainty and unexpected events. It examines three fundamental, high-level strategies for creating resilience in the face of “black swan” risks, highly unlikely but devastating events: insurance, buffering, and flexibility:The author also presents: Detailed case studies, stories, and examples of major firms that failed to anticipate Black Swan Problems and, as a result, were either wiped out or experienced a major strategy disruptionExtending the usual academic focus on individual biases to analyze Swans from an organizational perspective and prime organizations to proactive rather than reactive actionPractical applications and tactics to mitigate Black Swan risks and protect corporate strategies against catastrophic losses and the collateral damage that they causeStrategies and tools for turning Black Swan events into opportunities, reflecting the fact that resilience can be used for strategic advantageAn expert blueprint for companies seeking to anticipate, mitigate, and process tail risks, The Black Swan Problem is a must-read for students and practitioners of risk management, executives, founders, managers, and other business leaders.
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