Predicting Future Oceans

"This valuable book examines the changing ocean in the context of both environment and human society with the goal of framing how coastal and marine systems can survive. Many of us in the ocean conservation community have been saying we need to change the human relationship with the ocean for greater sustainability. What is useful is this book's attempt to make the leap to predictions that take these biophysical changes, adaptation by humans, and a myriad of other factors into account in order to "see how to get to the best possible future. Rather than predict doom, the volume strives to define a better relationship between human societies and the ocean, based on sustainability and equity. The challenge will be to redesign ocean governance for true sustainability at subnational, national, inter-governmental, and regional, as well as international levels-in the context of unprecedented and unpredictable global change in ocean systems. Meeting these challengeswill require changes of similar magnitude in governance including substantially increased accountability, transparency, and equity in the distribution of costs and benefits to be legitimate and successful. Such equity, and thus sustainability, must be intergenerational, local, and global-and this well-designed and well-written book helps us understand how we got here and where we can go." --The Quarterly Review of Biology

Dr. William Cheung is Associate Professor in the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries at the University of British Columbia, and Director (Science) of the Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program. He is an internationally-recognized expert in the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries, and is a lead author for the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and coordinating lead author for the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in the Changing Climate. Dr. Cheung has published over 100 peer-reviewed articles, and is the 2017 laureate of the Prix'd Excellence Award of the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas for his contributions to marine sciences. Dr. Yoshitaka Ota is Research Assistant Professor in the School of Marine and Environmental Affairs at the University of Washington, and Director (Policy) of the Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program. Yoshitaka Ota has a background in social anthropology at the University College London. Dr. Ota has conducted ethnographic research on various coastal communities, including Palau, UK, Indonesia and Japan, studying the socialization and cultural meanings associated with fishing practices. For the last ten years, he has been engaged in policy research involving coastal indigenous communities, marine spatial planning and human security. Dr. Ota also is the Director (Policy) of the Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, an international initiative comprising an interdisciplinary team of 20 institutes. His core research interest is to understand how to strengthen social equity in ocean governance while we face global environmental changes. His unit consists of a team of cross-disciplinary scholars. Dr. Andrs Cisneros-Montemayor is a marine resource economist specializing in complex social-ecological systems, particularly in developing regions. This includes estimating the social and economic benefits of ecotourism and artisanal fisheries, anticipating ecological and social impacts and challenges, and finding best strategies to achieve equitable and inclusive sustainable development.

Section 1: Predicting future oceans 1. Rethinking oceans as coupled human-natural systems to achieve sustainability

Section 2: Changing ocean systems 2. Synthesis: Changing ocean systems 3. Drivers of fisheries production in complex social-ecological systems 4. Changing Seasonality of the Sea: Past, Present, and Future 5. Extreme climate events in the oceans 6. Pathways of methylmercury accumulation in a changing ocean 7. Building confidence in projections of future ocean capacity 8. Coastal upwelling and climate change

Section 3: Changing marine ecosystems and biodiversity 9. Sythesis: Changing marine ecosystems and biodiversity 10. Current and future biogeography of marine exploited groups under climate change 11. The role of cyclical oscillations in species distributions shifts under climate change 12. Changing biomass flows in marine ecosystems: From the past to the future 13. Jellyfishes in a changing ocean 14. Understanding fisheries using time series data: importance and opportunities emerging from models of bottom up forcing 15. The Sea Around Us as provider of global fisheries catch and related marine biodiversity data to the Nereus Program and civil society 16. Life history of marine fishes and their implications for the future oceans

Section 4: Changing fisheries and seafood supply 17. Synthesis: Changing fisheries and seafood supply 18. Projecting fishing effort dynamics and the economics of fishing in the 21st century under climate change 19. Prospect of mariculture under climate change 20. Tourist seafood consumption's role in tourism adaptation in Pacific Island Countries for coastal food security under climate change 21. Integrating environmental information into stock assessment models for fisheries management 22. The future landscape of the global seafood market 23. Climate change adaptations and spatial fisheries management 24. Climate Change, Contaminants, and Country Food: Collaborating with Communities to Promote Food Security in the Arctic

Section 5: Changing social world of the ocean 25. Synthesis: Changing social world of the oceans 26. The relevance of human rights to socially responsible seafood 27. The impact of environmental change on small-scale fishing communities: Moving beyond adaptive capacity to community response 28. Coastal Indigenous Peoples in global ocean governance 29. The role of corporate social responsibility for ocean sustainability 30. Ocean policy on the water - incorporating fishermen's perspectives 31. Traditional ecological knowledge in displacement and migration 32. Can aspirations lead us to the oceans we want?

Section 6: Governance and well-being in changing oceans 33. Synthesis: The opportunities of changing ocean governance for sustainability 34. A Blue Economy: Equitable, Sustainable, and Viable Development in the World's Oceans 35. Exploring the knowns and unknowns of international fishery conflicts 36. The fu...