Market Volatility

"Shiller's book should be read by anyone with a serious interest in the functioning of markets." Richard A. Grasso , President and Chief Operating Officer, New York Stock Exchange "A specter haunts modern economics: 'individual stocks perform random walks in efficient markets, but the level of the whole market displays no demonstrable efficiency.' Bob Shiller is the key economist in this great debate. Buy his book and think on its contents. Learn what the October 1987 crash was all about." Paul Samuelson , Institute Professor, MIT

Robert J. Shiller is Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University. He is the author of Finance and the Good Society and other books.

Part 1 Basic issues and alternative models: stock prices and social dynamics (reprinted with minor editing from "Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2" 1984); fashions, fads, and bubbles in financial markets (reprinted with minor editing from "Knights, Raiders and Targets", edited by J. Coffe, et al). Part 2 The Stock Market: overview; stock market volatility - an introductory survey; do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? (reprinted with minor editing from "American Economic Review" 71, 1981); the use of volatility measures in assessing market efficiency (reprinted with minor editing from "Journal of Finance" 36, 1981); the probability of gross violations of a present value variance inequality (reprinted with minor editing from "Journal of Political Economy" 96, 1988); stock prices, earnings, and expected dividends (with John Y. Campbell) (reprinted with minor editing from "Journal of Finance" 43, 1988); the dividend ratio model and small sample bias - a Monte Carlo Study (with John Y. Campbell) (reprinted with minor editing from "Journal of Finance" 44, 1989); comovements in stock prices and comovements in dividens (reprinted with minor editing from "Journal of Finance" 44, 1989); factors and fundamentals. Part 3 The bond market: overview; bond market volatility - an introductory survey; the Gibson paradox and historical movements in real interest rates (with Heremy J. Siegel) (reprinted with minor editing from "Journal of Political Economy 85, 1977); the volatility of long-term interest rates and expectations models of the term structure (reprinted with minor editing from "Journal of Political Economy" 87, 1979); cointegration and tests of present value models (with John Y. Campbell) (reprinted with minor editing from "Journal of Political Economy" 95, 1987). Part 4 The real estate market: overview; the efficiency of the market for single family homes (with Karl E. Case) (reprinted with minor editing from "American Economic Review" 79, 1989). Part 5 The aggregate economy: overview; ultimate sources of aggregate variability (reprinted with minor editing from "American Economic Review" 77, 1987); the determinants of the variability of stock market prices (with Sanford J. Grossman) (reprinted with minor editing from "American Economic Review" 71, 1981). Part 6 Popular models and investor behaviour: overview; investor behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash - survey evidence; the behaviour of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets (with Karl E. Case) (reprinted with minor editing from "New England Economic Review" (1988).