Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science

"Predicting the (climatic) future is never an innocent or neutral act. Climate predictions emerge from particular value-laden cultures; hence these predicted futures exert a powerful control over the present. For this reason, the black-box of climate prediction needs critical scrutiny from the social and humanistic sciences, a task brilliantly executed in this new collection of essays." - Mike Hulme, professor of climate and culture, Kings College London "This is a truly outstanding survey of the cultures of prediction in the field of atmospheric and climate science. Through case studies and illustrative examples drawn from a wide range of countries and disciplines, the authors skillfully trace both epistemic and cultural shifts in modelling and simulation techniques." - Helmuth Trischler, Head of Research of the Deutsches Museum, Munich, and Director of the Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society, University of Munich "Prediction is everywhere in our societies but we usually do not interrogate how we actually do predictions, including in environmental sciences. Cultures of Prediction is thus essential reading and a fascinating set of case studies. But more, it illuminates beautifully the culture and politics of expertise in global environmental change." - Mark Carey, Associate Professor of History and Environmental Studies, Clark Honors College, University of Oregon "Cultures of Prediction brings together a wonderfully rich kaleidoscope of empirical perspectives to create a new vision for the social study of atmospheric and climate science. The unifying focus on computer modelling and simulation represents a substantial and very timely intellectual achievement. It is an indispensable resource for academics and practitioners alike." - Phaedra Daipha, Rutgers University, author of Masters of Uncertainty: Weather Forecasters and the Quest for Ground Truth "Because it addresses weather and climate models from multiple perspectives, scholars from science and social science disciplines will find this book of interest as it touches on the intersection of science and politics in model development, knowledge development, and applications." - Kristine C. Harper, Associate Professor of History, Department of History, Florida State University, Tallahassee

Matthias Heymann is Associate Professor for the history of science and technology at the Centre for Science Studies, Aarhus University, Denmark. Gabriele Gramelsberger is a Professor for philosophy of digital media at the University Witten/Herdecke, Germany. Martin Mahony is a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow in the School of Geography, University of Nottingham.

1. Introduction 2. Key Characteristics of Cultures Prediction Matthias Heymann, Gabriele Gramelsberger, and Martin MahonyPart I: Junctions: Science and Politics of Prediction 3. Calculating the Weather: Emerging Cultures of Prediction in Late Nineteenth- and Early Twentieth-century Europe Gabriele Gramelsberger 4. Which Design for a Weather Predictor? Speculating on the Future of Electronic Forecasting in PostWar America Christoph Rosol 5. A New Climate: Hubert H. Lamb and Boundary Work at the UK Meteorological Office Janet MartinNielsen 6. From Heuristic to Predictive: Making Climate Models Political Instruments Matthias Heymann and Nils Hundebl 7. How to Develop Climate Models? The "Gamble" of Improving Climate Model Parameterizations Hlne Guillemot Part II: Challenges and Debates: Negotiating and Using Simulation Knowledge 8. The (Re)emergence of Regional Climate: Mobile Models, Regional Visions and the Government of Climate Change Martin Mahony 9. Bellwether, Exceptionalism, and Other Tropes: Political Coproduction of Artic Climate Modeling Sverker Srlin, Ralf Dscher, Annika E. Nilsson and Nina Wormbs 10. From Predictive to Instructive: Using Models for Geoengineering Johann Feichter and Markus Quante 11. Validating Models in the Face of Uncertainty: Geotechnical Modeling and Dike Vulnerability in the Netherlands Matthijs Kouw 12. Tracing Uncertainty Management Through Four IPCC Assessment Reports and Beyond Catharina Landstrm 13. The Future Face of the Earth: The Visual Semantics of the Future in the Climate Change Imagery of hte IPCC Birgit Schneider