The Central Asian Economies Since Independence

One of Choice's Outstanding Academic Titles for 2007 "Professor Pomfret has produced a much needed systematic account of the contemporary economies of Central Asia."--Albrecht Rothacher, American Economic Journal "This comprehensive, fact-filled study of post-Soviet Central Asia ... offers significant insights into these countries' different degrees of dependency on natural resource exploitation (e.g., oil and gas) and agricultural products (e.g., cotton) for integration into the global economy and for long-term economic prosperity. In the process, Pomfret carefully examines varying achievements in political transformation; ethic tensions within and between these countries; past and prospective future economic relations with Russia, China, and other neighboring nations; and numerous, but only partially successful, attempts at creating cooperative arrangements for Central Asian economic integration... Highly recommended."--Choice "There are few comprehensive accounts of economic change in Central Asia and this is a welcome addition. The book also offers interesting interpretations for these countries' individual trajectories and focuses on the key dilemmas that each country faces."--Sally N. Cummings, Slavic Review "Richard Pomfret has produced a much needed systematic account of the contemporary economies of Central Asia. Five chapters offer individual country reports, ranging from oil-rich Kazakhstan to war ravished, impoverished Tajikistan. The volume also analyses their relative economic performances; household data identifying winners and losers of the transition; the role of essential natural resources in the region; as well as their regional and global trade patterns and policies; and their--very mixed--record of regional cooperation."--Albrecht Rothacher, Europe Asia Studies "Richard Pomfret's book stands out as a highly professional, thoughtful, and balanced study of the economic performance of five countries of the region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) without soundbites or the excessive dramatization that unfortunately accompanies such writing on Central Asia."--Rein Mullerson, International History Review "This book is a must read on Central Asian economies written by one of the few experts of the economies of the region."--Gael Raballand, Central Eurasian Reader "The Central Asian Economies Since Independence is the most reliable and comprehensive treatment of economic and public policy issues in Central Asia. It will be of value to the theoretically oriented scholar and to the practically oriented practitioner alike."--Gregory Gleason, The Russian Review

Richard Pomfret is Professor of Economics at the University of Adelaide, Australia. His books include "The Economies of Central Asia" (Princeton), "Asian Economies in Transition, Consequences of Creating a Market Economy", and "The Economics of Regional Trading Arrangements".

Preface vii CHAPTER 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Initial Conditions and Choice of Economic Policies 2 1.2 Economic Growth Performance Since Independence 9 1.3 Distribution 15 1.4 The Situation in the Early 2000s 18 1.5 Conclusions 21 PART I: The National Economies 23 CHAPTER 2: Uzbekistan:Economic Gradualism and Political Stability 25 2.1 The Uzbek Paradox,1991-97 25 2.2 The Reintroduction of Exchange Controls 30 2.3 The Economy in the Early 2000s 32 2.4 Conclusions 38 CHAPTER 3: Kazakhstan: Oil-Boom Economy 40 3.1 A Two-Part History 40 3.2 Macroeconomic Performance during the 1990s 42 3.3 Privatization 44 3.4 The Oil, Gas, and Minerals Sectors 50 3.5 Agriculture 55 3.6 Is Economic Diversi .cation Necessary to Avoid the Natural Resource Curse? 56 3.7 The Social Sectors 57 3.8 Conclusions 59 CHAPTER 4: Tajikistan: Civil War and Its Aftermath 61 4.1 The Political Background 62 4.2 Economic Performance 65 4.3 Economic Policies 66 4.4 Social Indicators and the Quality of Life 69 4.5 Conclusions 71 CHAPTER 5: The Kyrgyz Republic:The Region's Rapid Reformer 73 5.1 Creating a Market Economy 75 5.2 Developments in the Real Economy 78 5.3 Foreign Aid and External Debt 82 5.4 Health, Education, and Social Services 83 5.5 Conclusions 86 CHAPTER 6: Turkmenistan: The Realm of Turkmenbashi the Great 89 6.1 The Political Background 90 6.2 Initial Conditions and Economic Strategy 92 6.3 Economic Performance 96 6.4 Sustainability 99 6.5 Conclusions 102 PART II: Economic Performance 105 CHAPTER 7: Measuring Economic Performance 107 7.1 National-Accounts Measures of Output 107 7.2 National-Accounts Measures and Material Well-Being 111 7.3 Survey Evidence 113 7.4 Other Considerations 118 7.5 Conclusions: Putting It All Together 120 CHAPTER 8: Winners and Losers 123 8.1 Household Survey Data from the 1990s 123 8.2 Household Location 130 8.3 Household Composition 133 8.4 Education and Health 134 8.5 Demographic Traits and Year 135 8.6 Summary and Relations to Other Research 135 8.7 Conclusions 139 PART III: The International Context 141 9 The Role of Natural Resources 143 9.1 Cotton 143 9.2 Oil and Natural Gas 153 9.3 Minerals 160 9.4 Hydroelectricity 161 9.5 Other Natural Resources 163 9.6 Natural Resources and Economic Growth 165 9.7 Conclusions 167 Appendix: Measuring the Transfers from the Cotton Sector 168 CHAPTER 10: International Economic Policies: Regionalism and Integration into the World Economy 171 10.1 The Central Asian Countries' Trade Patterns and Policies 172 10.2 The World Trade Organization 175 10.3 The Attraction of Regionalism 183 10.4 Other Regional Issues 195 10.5 Conclusions 211 PART IV: Prospects 213 CHAPTER 11: Shared Problems and National Economic Differentiation 215 References 219 Index 231