How Statesmen Think

"These essays make an invaluable contribution to understanding 'how statesmen think.' The book is strongly recommended for students and researchers in international relations." * Choice * "Robert Jervis is one of those rare scholars of International Relations whose work is path-breaking and enduring in multiple research areas, ranging from nuclear deterrence to political psychology, from intelligence to complexity theory. . . . That this volume brings together twelve of Jervis's previously published essays on political psychology and international relations is a boon to scholars and practitioners alike."---Balkan Devlen, International Affairs

Robert Jervis is the Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics at Columbia University. His books include Perception and Misperception in International Politics and System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (both Princeton).

Acknowledgments ix Introduction 1 I Political Psychology 13 1 Understanding Beliefs 15 2 The Drunkard's Search 40 II Heuristics and Biases 61 3 Representativeness, Foreign Policy Judgments, and Theory-Driven Perceptions 63 4 Prospect Theory: The Political Implications of Loss Aversion 85 III Political Psychology And International Relations Theory 105 5 Signaling and Perception: Projecting Images and Drawing Inferences 107 6 Political Psychology Research and Theory: Bridges and Barriers 125 7 Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash 148 8 Identity and the Cold War 169 IV Psychology And National Security 189 9 Deterrence and Perception 191 10 Psychology and Crisis Stability 216 11 Domino Beliefs 234 12 Perception, Misperception, and the End of the Cold War 261 Index 281