Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment (inbunden)
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Format
Inbunden (Hardback)
Språk
Engelska
Antal sidor
491
Utgivningsdatum
1987-01-01
Upplaga
New e.
Förlag
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Medarbetare
Booker, Jane M.
Illustrationer
Illustrations
Dimensioner
260 x 184 x 31 mm
Vikt
1111 g
Antal komponenter
1
ISBN
9780898714746

Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment

A Practical Guide

av Mary A Meyer
Inbunden,  Engelska, 1987-01-01
1272
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Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
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Innehållsförteckning

Preface to ASA-SIAM Edition; Preface; List of Figures; List of Tables; List of Examples; Part I. Introduction to Expert Judgment. 1. Introduction; 2. Common Questions and Pitfalls Concerning Expert Judgment; 3. Background on Human Problem Solving and Bias; Part II. Elicitation Procedures. 4. Selecting the Question Areas and Questions; 5. Refining the Questions; 6. Selecting and Motivating the Experts; 7. Selecting the Components of Elicitation; 8. Designing and Tailoring the Elicitation; 9. Practicing the Elicitation and Training the Project Personnel; 10. Conducting the Elicitation; Part III. Analysis Procedures. 11. Introducing the Techniques for Analysis of Expert Judgment Data; 12. Initial Look at the Data_The First Analyses; 13. Understanding the Data Base Structure; 14. Correlation and Bias Detection; 15. Model Formation; 16. Combining Responses_Aggregation; 17. Characterizing Uncertainties; 18. Making Inferences; Appendix A. SAATY; Appendix B. MCBETA; Appendix C. EMPIRICAL; Appendix D. BOOT; Glossary of Expert Judgment Terms; References; Index.

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