Climate Extremes

S.-Y. Simon Wang, Utah State University, USA Jin-Ho Yoon, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Republic of Korea Christopher C. Funk, United States Geological Survey, USA Robert R. Gillies, Utah State University, USA

Contributors vii Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii Part I: Forcings of Climate Extremes 1 The Changing El NinoSouthern Oscillation and Associated Climate Extremes Jin-Yi Yu, Xin Wang, Song Yang, Houk Paek, and Mengyan Chen 3 2 Weather Extremes Linked to Interaction of the Arctic and Midlatitudes Timo Vihma 39 3 Impact of Aerosols on Regional Changes in Climate Extremes Jana Sillmann and Jinho Yoon 51 4 Weakened Flow, Persistent Circulation, and Prolonged Weather Extremes in Boreal Summer Dim Coumou, Kai Kornhuber, Jascha Lehmann, and Vladimir Petoukhov 61 5 Land Processes as the Forcing of Extremes: A Review Min-Hui Lo, Tzu-Hsien Kuo, Hao]Wei Wey, Chia-Wei Lan, and Jen-Ping Chen 75 Part II: Processes of Climate Extremes 6 Timing of Anthropogenic Emergence in Climate Extremes Andrew D. King, Markus G. Donat, Ed Hawkins, and David J. Karoly 95 7 Recent Increases in Extreme Temperature Occurrence over Land Scott J. Weaver, Arun Kumar, and Mingyue Chen 105 8 Why Future Shifts in Tropical Precipitation Will Likely Be Small: The Location of the Tropical Rain Belt and the Hemispheric Contrast of Energy Input to the Atmosphere Aaron Donohoe and Aiko Voigt 115 9 Weather]Climate Interactions and MJO Influences Paul E. Roundy, Naoko Sakaeda, Kyle MacRitchie, and Lawrence Gloeckler 139 10 Recent Climate Extremes Associated with the West Pacific Warming Mode Chris Funk and Andrew Hoell 165 11 Connections Between Heat Waves and Circumglobal Teleconnection Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere Summer Haiyan Teng and Grant Branstator 177 Part III: Regional Climate Extremes 12 North American Drought and Links to Northern Eurasia: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves Hailan Wang, Siegfried D. Schubert, and Randal D. Koster 197 13 The California Drought: Trends and Impacts Shih]Yu (Simon) Wang, Jinho Yoon, Robert R. Gillies, and Huang-Hsiung Hsu 223 14 Observed Trends in US Tornado Frequency Adam J. Clark 237 15 Mechanisms Explaining Recent Changes in Australian Climate Extremes Sophie C. Lewis, David J. Karoly, Andrew D. King, Sarah E. Perkins, and Markus G. Donat 249 16 Unraveling East Africas Climate Paradox Bradfield Lyon and Nicolas Vigaud 265 17 A Physical Model for Extreme Drought over Southwest Asia Andrew Hoell, Chris Funk, Mathew Barlow, and Forest Cannon 283 Part IV: Prediction of Climate Extremes 18 Extratropical Precursors of the El NinoSouthern Oscillation Kathy V. Pegion and Christopher Selman 301 19 North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction: Underlying Science and an Evaluation of Statistical Models Philip J. Klotzbach, Mark A. Saunders, Gerald D. Bell, and Eric S. Blake 315 20 Predicting Subseasonal Precipitation Variations Based on the Madden]Julian Oscillation Charles Jones 329 21 Prediction of Short]Term Climate Extremes with a Multimodel Ensemble Emily J. Becker 347 22 Toward Predicting US Tornadoes in the Late 21st Century Adam J. Clark 361 Index 371