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PART I INTRODUCTION 1. Climate Change and Variability - Past, Present, and Future 2. The Climate System and Climatic Change 3. Factors Driving Anthropogenic Emissions to the Atmosphere 4. Observed Changes in the Climatic System and Sea Level During the Recent Past PART II CLIMATIC CHANGE: FROM EMISSIONS TO CLIMATE SYSTEM RESPONSE 5. Models Used in Projecting Future Climatic Changes and Sea Level Rise 6. The Physics of the Greenhouse Effect Radiative Forcing, and Climate Sensitivity 7. Response of the Carbon Cycle and other Biogeochemical Cycles: Translating Emissions of GHGs and Aerosols into Concentrations and Radiative Forcing 8. The Regional Equilibrium Response to a Doubling of the Atmospheric Concentration of Carbon Dioxide 9. The Transient Climatic Response and the Detection of Anthropogenic Effects and Climate 10. Sea Level Rise PART III THE SCIENCE-POLICY INTERFACE 11. Scenarios of Future Climatic Change. Glossary. References. Web Sites Used. Index