The Art of Intelligence

[T]his anthology deserves to be widely used in intelligence education. * Intelligencer * The Art of Intelligence: Simulations, Exercises, and Games is an important and highly engaging addition to the intelligence education library, providing teachers and students with a set of well-crafted simulations that will allow for in-class, hands-on instruction that cannot be found elsewhere. -- Mark Lowenthal, author of Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy; President of the Intelligence & Security Academy This innovative book is a most welcome resource, providing a wide range of useful and engaging teaching/training materials that will enrich the student experience and facilitate improved understanding of analytic techniques. -- Mark Phythian, Professor of Politics, University of Leicester

William J. Lahneman is associate professor of homeland security at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, Florida. Rubn Arcos is professor of communication sciences at Rey Juan Carlos University (Madrid, Spain), professor and deputy director at the Centre for Intelligence Services and Democratic Systems, and coordinator of the MA Program in Intelligence Analysis.

Introduction William J. Lahneman and Rubn Arcos Part 1. 1-2 Class Session Simulations 1. Estimating Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction William J. Lahneman and Hugo A. Keesing 2. Competing Hypotheses in Contemporary Intelligence Analysis Julian Richards 3. Facing Intelligence Analysts with ethical Scenarios Fernando Velasco and Rubn Arcos 4. Spies and Lies: The Perils of Collection (A Simulation) Kristan J. Wheaton and James Breckenridge 5. Learning Intelligence Analysis: The Development of Cognitive Strategies Dan Mazare and Gabriel Sebe 6. Kims Game: Developing Powers of Observation and Memory William J. Lahneman Part 2. 1-2 Week Simulations 7. Cyber Attack on the Office of Intelligence Production: A Collaborative Simulation Randolph H. Pherson and Vaughn F. Bishop 8. Market and Competitor Analysis: Real Exercise Luis Madureira 9. Need to Share Intelligence and Crisis Management in Fighting Terrorism and Organized Crime: the Need for Integrated Training Solutions Gheorghe-Teodoru Stefan and Cristian Barna 10. A 3-D Intelligence Analysis on Migration as a Security Threat: From Data to Intelligence Irena Dumitru and Ella Ciuperca 11. TEST Simulation Model: Team Working and Experiential Scenario-based Training Chris Jagger and Julian Richards Part 3. Multi-week Simulations 12. Understanding Baynesian Thinking: Prior and Posterior Probabilities and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses in intelligence Analysis Sir David Omand, GCB 13. Assessment BASE: Simulating National Intelligence Assessment in a Graduate Course Philip H.J. Davies 14. Social Intelligence Survey: Mapping the Webs of embedded Intelligence Functions Wilhelm Agrell and Tobbe Peterson 15. Multimedia Intelligence Products: Experiencing the Intelligence Production Process and Adding Layers of Information to Intelligence Reports Rubn Arcos, Manuel Grtrudix & Jos Ignacio Prieto