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Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis982
The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by Randolph H. Pherson and Richards J. Heuer Jr showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques?nine new to this edition?that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.
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“This is one of the rare textbooks extant that succeed brilliantly in solving the basic dilemma of every textbook: to be accessible to the novice and at the same time exact in the details. It does so by following the identical text structure for each of the techniques it discusses. As a consequence, it is at the same time a textbook and a work of reference.”
“An accessible explanation of structured analytic techniques that will help students, academics and intelligence analysts to produce better research.”
“Structured Analytical Techniques by Heuer and Pherson provides students with a comprehensive understanding of the analytical tools used by intelligence professionals, in order to overcome cognitive biases and learn to solve problems collaboratively.”
“Heuer and Pherson’s Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis is a comprehensive and accessibly written text that will be of interest to both novices and professionals alike. Its comprehensive coverage of analytical techniques, and the analytical process, make this work an essential reading for students of intelligence analysis.”
“Excellent publication for the study of intelligence analysis, structured analytical techniques and their application in this increasingly dangerous environment. A must read for anyone entering the intelligence community as an analyst, practitioner, stakeholder and leader.”
Randolph H. Pherson is president of Pherson Associates, LLC; CEO of Globalytica, LLC; and a founding director of the nonprofit Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. He teaches advanced analytic techniques and critical thinking skills to analysts in the government and private sector. Mr. Pherson collaborated with Richards Heuer Jr. in developing and launching use of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and he developed several analytic techniques for the CIAs Sherman Kent School, many of which were incorporated in his Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques. He coauthored Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence with Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action with Sarah Miller Beebe, and several other guides for analysts on writing, briefing, indicators, and managing the production process. Mr. Pherson completed a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community in 2000, last serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector Generals staff, and was chief of the CIAs Strategic Planning and Management Staff. He is the recipient of the Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his B.A. from Dartmouth College and an M.A. in international relations from Yale University.
Richards J. Heuer Jr. is best known for his book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis and for developing and then guiding automation of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique. Both are being used to teach and train intelligence analysts throughout the Intelligence Community and in a growing number of academic programs on intelligence or national security. After retiring from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Mr. Heuer was associated with the Intelligence Community in various roles for more than five decades until his death in August 2018. He has written extensively on personnel security, counterintelligence, deception, and intelligence analysis. Mr. Heuer has a B.A. in philosophy from Williams College and an M.A. in international relations from the University of Southern California. He also pursued graduate studies at the University of California at Berkeley and the University of Michigan.
Figures Foreword by John McLaughlin Preface Chapter 1 Introduction and Overview 1.1 Our Vision 1.2 Function of Structured Analytic Techniques 1.3 History of Structured Analytic Techniques 1.4 Use of SATs Around the World 1.5 Selection of Techniques for This Book Quick Overview of Chapters Chapter 2 The Role of Structured Techniques 2.1 Two Types of Thinking 2.2 Developing a Taxonomy of Structured Techniques 2.3 Role of Structured Analytic Techniques 2.4 Dealing with Cognitive Limitations 2.5 Matching Cognitive Limitations to Structured Techniques 2.6 Combating Digital Disinformation Chapter 3 Choosing the Right Technique 3.1 The Six Families 3.2 Core Techniques 3.3 Selecting the Right Technique 3.4 Projects Using Multiple Techniques 3.5 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques 3.6 The Five Habits of a Master Thinker Chapter 4 Practitioner's Guide to Collaboration 4.1 Social Networks and Analytic Teams 4.2 Dividing the Work 4.3 The Value of Team Analysis 4.4 Common Pitfalls with Small Groups 4.5 Benefiting from Diversity 4.6 Advocacy versus Objective Inquiry 4.7 Leadership and Training Chapter 5 Getting Organized 5.1 Getting Started 5.2 Sorting 5.3 Ranking, Scoring, and Prioritizing 5.3.1 The Method: Ranked Voting 5.3.2 The Method: Paired Comparison 5.3.3 The Method: Weighted Ranking 5.4 Matrices 5.5 Flow Diagrams 5.6 Process Maps and Gantt Charts Chapter 6 Exploration Techniques 6.1 Simple Brainstorming 6.2 Cluster Brainstorming 6.3 Nominal Group Technique 6.4 Circleboarding (TM) 6.5 Starbursting 6.6 Mind Maps and Concept Maps 6.7 Venn Analysis 6.8 Network Analysis Chapter 7 Diagnostic Techniques 7.1 Key Assumptions Check 7.2 Chronologies and Timelines 7.3 Cross-Impact Matrix 7.4 Multiple Hypothesis Generation 7.4.1 The Method: Simple Hypothesis 7.4.2 The Method: Quadrant Hypothesis Generation 7.4.3 The Method: Multiple Hypothesis Generator (R) 7.5 Diagnostic Reasoning 7.6 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 7.7 Inconsistencies Finder (TM) 7.8 Deception Detection 7.9 Argument Mapping Chapter 8 Reframing Techniques 8.1 Outside-In Thinking 8.2 Structured Analogies 8.3 Red Hat Analysis 8.4 Quadrant Crunching (TM) 8.5 Premortem Analysis 8.6 Structured Self-Critique 8.7 What If? Analysis 8.8 High Impact/Low Probability Analysis 8.9 Delphi Method 8.10 Adversarial Collaboration 8.10.1 The Method: Key Assumptions Check 8.10.2 The Method: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 8.10.3 The Method: Argument Mapping 8.10.4 The Method: Mutual Understanding 8.10.5 The Method: Joint Escalation 8.10.6 The Method: The Nosenko Approach 8.11 Structured Debate Chapter 9 Foresight Techniques 9.1 Key Drivers Generation (TM) 9.2 Key Uncertainties Finder (TM) 9.3 Reversing Assumptions 9.4 Simple Scenarios 9.5 Cone of Plausibility 9.6 Alternative Futures Analysis 9.7 Multiple Scenarios Generation 9.8 Morphological Analysis 9.9 Counterfactual Reasoning 9.10 Analysis by Contrasting Narratives 9.11 Indicators Generation, Validation, and Evaluation 9.11.1 The Method: Indicators Generation 9.11.2 The Method: Indicators Validation 9.11.3 The Method: Indicators Evaluation Chapter 10 Decision Support 10.1 Opportunities Finder (TM) 10.2 Impact Matrix 10.3 Bowtie Analysis 10.4 SWOT Analysis 10.5 Critical Path Analysis 10.6 Decision Trees 10.7 Decision Matrix 10.8 Force Field Analysis 10.9 Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes 10.10 Complexity Manager Chapter 11 The Future of Structured Analytic Techniques 11.1 Limits of Empirical Analysis 11.2 The Purpose of Structured Techniques 11.3 Projecting the Trajectory of Structured Techniques 11.3.1 Structuring the Data 11.3.2 Identifying Key Drivers 11.4 The Role of Structured Techniques in 2025