Economic Forecasting (inbunden)
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Economic Forecasting (inbunden)

Economic Forecasting

Inbunden Engelska, 1999-08-01
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This authoritative and wide-ranging collection presents over fifty of the most important articles on forecasting - a technique that lies at the heart of economic policy and decision-making. This comprehensive two volume set presents the major papers in macroeconomic forecasting and policy making; time series forecasting; the econometrics of forecasting; forecast evaluation; forecasting with leading indicators; forecasting in finance and economic forecasting using surveys.
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Terence C. Mills, Professor of Applied Statistics and Econometrics, Loughborough University, UK


Contents: VOLUME I: Acknowledgements * Introduction Terence Mills Part I: Early Attempts 1. Warren M. Persons (1924), 'Some Fundamental Concepts of Statistics' 2. Paul A. Samuelson (1987), 'Paradise Lost and Refound: The Harvard ABC Barometers' 3. Arthur W. Marget (1929), 'Morgenstern on the Methodology of Economic Forecasting' Part II: Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policymaking 4. R.L. Marris (1954), 'The Position of Economics and Economists in the Government Machine: A Comparative Critique of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands' 5. Daniel B. Suits (1962), 'Forecasting and Analysis with an Econometric Model' 6. Alec Cairncross (1969), 'Economic Forecasting' 7. Stephen K. McNees (1982), 'The Role of Macroeconometric Models in Forecasting and Policy Analysis in the United States' 8. Sir Terence Burns (1986), 'The Interpretation and Use of Economic Predictions' 9. Kenneth F. Wallis (1991), 'Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey' Part III: Time Series Forecasting 10. P.J. Coen, E.D. Gomme and M.G. Kendall (1969), 'Lagged Relationships in Economic Forecasting (with discussion)' 11. Jeremy Bray (1971), 'Dynamic Equations for Economic Forecasting with the G.D.P. - Unemployment Relation and the Growth of G.D.P. in the United Kingdom as an Example' 12. George E.P. Box and Paul Newbold (1971), 'Some Comments on a Paper of Coen, Gomme and Kendall' 13. P. Newbold and C.W.J. Granger (1974), 'Experience with Forecasting Univariate Time Series and the Combination of Forecasts' 14. Richard Meese and John Geweke (1984), 'A Comparison of Autoregressive Univariate Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Time Series' 15. A.C. Harvey and P.H.J. Todd (1983), 'Forecasting Economic Time Series With Structural and Box-Jenkins Methods: A Case Study' 16. Robert B. Litterman (1986), 'Forecasting With Bayesian Vector Autoregressions - Five Years of Experience' 17. K. Rao Kadiyala and Sune Karlsson (1993), 'Forecasting with Generalized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions' 18. Jin-Lung Lin and C.W.J. Granger (1994), 'Forecasting from Non-linear Models in Practice' 19. Chris Chatfield (1997), 'Forecasting in the 1990s' Part IV: The Econometrics of Forecasting 20. Richard T. Baillie and Tim Bollerslev (1992), 'Prediction in Dynamic Models with Time-Dependent Conditional Variances' 21. Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry (1993), 'On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors' 22. Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry (1995), 'Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems' 23. David F. Hendry (1997), 'The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting' Name Index VOLUME II: Acknowledgements * An Introduction by the editor to both volumes appears in volume I Part I: Forecast Evaluation 1. Geoffrey H. Moore (1969), 'Forecasting Short-Term Economic Change' 2. Victor Zarnowitz (1979), 'An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Forecasts of Aggregate Income, Output, and the Price Level' 3. H.O. Stekler (1968), 'Forecasting with Econometric Models: An Evaluation' 4. Charles R. Nelson (1972), 'The Prediction Performance of the FRB-MIT-PENN Model of the U.S. Economy' 5. J.M. Bates and C.W.J. Granger (1969), 'The Combination of Forecasts' 6. C.W.J. Granger and P. Newbold (1973), 'Some Comments on the Evaluation of Economic Forecasts' 7. Robert T. Clemen (1989), 'Combining Forecasts: A Review and Annotated Bibliography' 8. E. Philip Howrey, Lawrence R. Klein and Michael D. McCarthy (1974), 'Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models' 9. Ray C. Fair (1974), 'An Evaluation of a Short-Run Forecasting Model' 10. Ray C. Fair (1979), 'An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models' 11. Stephen K. McNees (1986), 'Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts' 12. R.A. Kolb and H.O. Stekler (1990), 'The Lead and Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts' 13. Roy Batchelor and Pami Dua (1990), 'Forecaster Ideology, Forecasting Technique, and the A