Adam Kucharski - Böcker

A FINANCIAL TIMES BOOK OF THE YEAR'Insightful, absorbing and entertaining' TLS'Brilliant' ALEX BELLOS'Illuminating' DAILY MAIL'The case for better evidence in post-evidence times' FINANCIAL TIMES'Profound and utterly absorbing' CHRIS VAN TULLEKENHow far would you go in your search for certainty? And once you get there, how do you convince others?From the medieval Islamic world to the recent pandemic, scientific progress has relied on different methods of establishing fact from fiction. Today, in the face of ever-increasing disinformation, how we prove things - to ourselves and others - has never felt more urgent.But there is far more to proof than axioms, theories and scientific laws: when demonstrating that an experimental medical treatment works, persuading a jury of someone's guilt, or deciding whether to trust a new type of financial transaction, weighing up evidence is rarely simple.Bestselling author, statistician and epidemiologist Adam Kucharski ranges across science, politics, philosophy and economics to explore how truth emerges - and why it falters.

Gamblers have been trying to figure out how to game the system since our ancestors first made wagers over dice fashioned from knucklebones: in revolutionary Paris, the 'martingale' strategy was rumoured to lead to foolproof success at roulette ; today, professional gamblers are using cutting-edge techniques to tilt the odds in their favour. Science is giving us the competitive edge over opponents, casinos and bookmakers. But is there such a thing as a perfect bet?The Perfect Bet looks beyond probability and statistics to examine how wagers have inspired a plethora of new disciplines - spanning chaos theory, machine learning and game theory - which are not just revolutionising gambling, but changing our fundamental notions about chance, randomness and luck.Explaining why poker is gaming's last bastion of human superiority over AI, how methods originally developed for the US nuclear programme are helping pundits predict sports results and why a new breed of algorithms are losing banks millions, The Perfect Bet has the inside track on any wager you'd care to place.

An Observer Book of the YearA Times Science Book of the YearA New Statesman Book of the YearA Financial Times Science Book of the Year'Astonishingly bold' Daily Mail'It is hard to imagine a more timely book ... much of the modern world will make more sense having read it.' The TimesWe live in a world that's more interconnected than ever before. Our lives are shaped by outbreaks - of disease, of misinformation, even of violence - that appear, spread and fade away with bewildering speed. To understand them, we need to learn the hidden laws that govern them. From 'superspreaders' who might spark a pandemic or bring down a financial system to the social dynamics that make loneliness catch on, The Rules of Contagion offers compelling insights into human behaviour and explains how we can get better at predicting what happens next.Along the way, Adam Kucharski explores how innovations spread through friendship networks, what links computer viruses with folk stories - and why the most useful predictions aren't necessarily the ones that come true.Now revised and updated with content on Covid-19.

A FINANCIAL TIMES BEST SUMMER BOOK AND BOOK OF THE YEAR 2025'Insightful, absorbing and entertaining' TLS'Brilliant' ALEX BELLOS'Illuminating' DAILY MAIL'The case for better evidence in post-evidence times' FINANCIAL TIMES'Profound and utterly absorbing' CHRIS VAN TULLEKENHow far would you go in your search for certainty? And once you get there, how do you convince others?From the medieval Islamic world to the recent pandemic, scientific progress has relied on different methods of establishing fact from fiction. Today, in the face of ever-increasing disinformation, how we prove things - to ourselves and others - has never felt more urgent.But there is far more to proof than axioms, theories and scientific laws: when demonstrating that an experimental medical treatment works, persuading a jury of someone's guilt, or deciding whether to trust a new type of financial transaction, weighing up evidence is rarely simple.Bestselling author, statistician and epidemiologist Adam Kucharski ranges across science, politics, philosophy and economics to explore how truth emerges - and why it falters.

The main theme and objective of this book is the evolution of the Irish attitude towards Poland and the Poles during the first half of the nineteenth century. The book explores advanced Irish-Polish relations, emphasising the place of the Polish Question in the process of shaping modern Irish nationalism, and how from a distant, nearly exotic, country before the end of the eighteenth century, Poland became a source of parallels for the Irish nationalists. Using statistical and geographical analyses, the book goes on to show how the Polish revolution led to the ultimate foundation of the Irish-Polish advanced relations and the role of Poland in the process of shaping modern Irish nationalism.