Allan Timmermann - Böcker

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future�comes from�the core fields of economics.� In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B,�which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects.� Volume 2A�covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables.� Volume 2B�investigates commercial applications,�with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies.� Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature�scattered across�applied�and theoretical statistics journals as well as�econometrics and empirical economics journals.� The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B�provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.

Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.

Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Developments in Forecast Combination and Portfolio Choice focuses on the following three themes: model and forecast combinations; structural change and long memory, controlling downside risk and investment strategies. Written by leading international researchers and practitioners, his book deals efficiently with three key questions facing portfolio managers. How to achieve greater forecasting accuracy; how to deal with structural change in asset allocation models and how to control downside risk, i.e. the risk of loss, in portfolio management.

Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables.The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. * Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods* Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective* Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts* Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations* Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility* Features numerous empirical examples* Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation* Essential for practitioners and students alike

The collection in Volume 43 Part A of Advances in Econometrics serves as a tribute to Professor M. Hashem Pesaran. Hashem is one of the most innovative, influential, and productive econometricians of his generation, with over 200 papers published in leading scientific journals to his credit along with highly influential books on both theoretical and applied topics, significantly pushing forward the frontiers of knowledge in econometrics and economics. Thanks to his profound and pioneering work on theoretical and empirical questions, the economics profession has gained a much better understanding of both the power and limitations of econometric analysis.Consistent with Hashem’s contributions, this volume comprises of chapters on a variety of topics covering prediction and macroeconomic modelling. The list of topics includes studies on Bayesian Quantile regression methods, forecasting implications from the economic impact of global warming, assessment of DSGE models, and parameter estimation in the presence of multiple breaks.