Anthony Jorm – författare

This Open Access book provides detailed practical guidance on how to do a Delphi study to establish a consensus across the broad range of social, psychological, health and environmental sciences. The book informs the design of Delphi studies by drawing on wisdom-of-crowds research on the conditions under which groups make better-quality judgements. It covers the development of the Delphi method and its many variations, as well as the ways this method has been used to make judgements of facts where the evidence is imperfect, set methodological standards, make predictions, define foundational concepts, determine collective values, and improve professional practice and policy. It takes the reader through the steps in carrying out a Delphi study and the choices that have to be made at each step. It also covers the implementation of Delphi findings in practice. Case examples are included throughout drawing from a variety of disciplines.

This Open Access book shows how expert consensus pervades all areas of science. It explores, in particular, the role of consensus in establishing scientific truth, in guiding professional practice and policy and agreeing on what are acceptable scientific methodologies. For some scientific issues, a consensus forms spontaneously among scientists working on a topic, while for others, where the issues are complex, a formal deliberative consensus process is commonly needed.Deliberative consensus processes are becoming more important as scientists increasingly deal with complex multi-disciplinary issues of policy importance such as climate change due to human activity. While deliberative consensus processes are commonly used, they often lead to criticism from consensus skeptics. The book argues that deliberative consensus processes in science can be improved and proposes a number of realistic ways forward, ending with a discussion of whether communicating the scientific consensus on a topic is a good way to persuade the public.