C. W. J. Granger – författare

This thoroughly revised second edition of an upper-level undergraduate/graduate text describes many major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This is the only time series book to concentrate on the forecasting of economic data and to cover such a broad range of topics. Its key features are: gives a complete description, with applications, of the Box-Jenkins single series modeling techniques; extends the Box-Jenkins techniques to multivariate cases; compares forecasts from purely statistical and econometric models; pays careful attention to such problems as how to evaluate and compare forecasts; covers nonstationary and nonlinear models, co-integration and error-correction models.

This thoroughly revised second edition of an upper-level undergraduate/graduate text describes many major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This is the only time series book to concentrate on the forecasting of economic data and to cover such a broad range of topics. Its key features are: gives a complete description, with applications, of the Box-Jenkins single series modeling techniques; extends the Box-Jenkins techniques to multivariate cases; compares forecasts from purely statistical and econometric models; pays careful attention to such problems as how to evaluate and compare forecasts; covers nonstationary and nonlinear models, co-integration and error-correction models.

This is a survey of recent developments in the field of cointegration, which links long run components of a pair or of a group of series. It can then be used to discuss some types of equilibrium and to introduce them into time-series models in a fairly uncontroversial way. The idea was introduced in the early 1980s and has generated much interest since then amongst econometricians and macroeconomists. The authors discuss the basic ideas in their introduction, and the final chapters review the most recent developments in the field in a non-technical way that will enable economists with some training in modern econometrics to understand and appreciate these developments.

This book helps economists with the difficult task of constructing econometric models and will be especially useful to those taking courses in applied econometrics who need to learn how to evaluate the validity of the theories and techniques they are taught. The volume contains seventeen papers by the leading authorities in the field, divided into four groups, to each of which the editor provides an introduction. The whole volume is prefaced with an editorial discussion of the controversies of the subject.The methods critically discussed include the traditional ones, such as vector auto-regressions; Bayesian techniques; and the comprehensive modelling strategy advocated by reseachers at the London School of Economics.The papers vary in the degree of sophistication used, but anyone reading the book should gain a sound knowledge of the practical difficulties involved in model specification, evaluation, and interpretation.

Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics, Second Edition: Forecasting Economic Time Series presents the developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice. This book discusses the application of time series procedures in mainstream economic theory and econometric model building. Organized into 10 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the problem of dealing with time series possessing a deterministic seasonal component. This text then provides a description of time series in terms of models known as the time-domain approach. Other chapters consider an alternative approach, known as spectral or frequency-domain analysis, that often provides useful insights into the properties of a series. This book discusses as well a unified approach to the fitting of linear models to a given time series. The final chapter deals with the main advantage of having a Gaussian series wherein the optimal single series, least-squares forecast will be a linear forecast. This book is a valuable resource for economists.