Dennis V. Lindley – författare

Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor of Statistics, University College London This book looks at the problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles—assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing that decision that maximizes expected utility—decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximization of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making. This extensively revised second edition uses only elementary mathematics and will be of interest to all those concerned with decision-making and its consequences. Since his retirement from University College London in 1977 Professor Lindley has held visiting appointments at Berkeley, University of Florida, George Washington University, University of Sao Paulo, University of Wisconsin, Monash University, Australia, and University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Contents Decisions and uncertain eventsA numerical measure for uncertaintyThe laws of probabilityA numerical measure for consequencesThe utility of moneyBayes’ TheoremValue of informationDecision treesThe assessment of probabilities and utilitiesAn appreciationAppendix Answers to exercises Glossary of Symbols Subject Index

Praise for the First Edition

"...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." —Journal of Applied Statistics

The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including:

A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker''s odds are not expressions of probability Applications of the book’s thesis to statistics A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability

Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.

Praise for the First Edition "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty."—Journal of Applied StatisticsThe critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including: A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probabilityA discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recessionA consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probabilityApplications of the book’s thesis to statisticsA demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probabilityUnderstanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.