Lawrence R. Klein - Böcker

Lawrence Klein won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his original work in developing modelsOne of the most important, and visible, things economists do is to forecast what will happen in the economy in the future. Each year a number of different groups in the US use their own econometric models to forecast what will happen to the economy in the coming year. Some forecasts are more accurate than others.This book consists of chapters by distinguished economists comparing the different models now being used. It is organized topically rather than by model. The contributors include: Roger Brimmer, Ray Fair, Bert Hickman, F. Gerard Adams, and Albert Ando. Lawrence Klein provides an introduction to the volume.

The Japanese economy is beginning to show signs of recovery after years of stagnation/deflation, but many Japanese policymakers warn that this economic growth may be sluggish: slower than in the United States and certainly slower than in other East Asian countries. Japan faces significant economic problems, including an aging population, a large fiscal deficit, and the need to adjust to the IT economy and to competition with the rest of East Asia. A slow growth scenario would greatly reduce opportunities for new productive investment and would make it increasingly difficult to provide for Japan's growing social needs. The authors of this book argue that Japan can and should grow more rapidly, and examine the reasons for the sluggish performance of the Japanese economy. For example, some Japanese economic sectors, particularly in distribution and finance, have failed to take advantage of new information and communications technology to accelerate the growth of productivity, as has happened in other countries, such as the US. Production function studies and econometric model simulations suggest that with appropriate policies the Japanese economy can grow more rapidly and deal with its future problems. The book posits a number of policy proposals which would help to accelerate Japan's economic growthThis book will be of interest to students of the Japanese economy, macroeconomics and international economies, and also to policymakers and professionals interested in Japan’s economy.

The Japanese economy is beginning to show signs of recovery after years of stagnation/deflation, but many Japanese policymakers warn that this economic growth may be sluggish: slower than in the United States and certainly slower than in other East Asian countries. Japan faces significant economic problems, including an aging population, a large fiscal deficit, and the need to adjust to the IT economy and to competition with the rest of East Asia. A slow growth scenario would greatly reduce opportunities for new productive investment and would make it increasingly difficult to provide for Japan's growing social needs. The authors of this book argue that Japan can and should grow more rapidly, and examine the reasons for the sluggish performance of the Japanese economy. For example, some Japanese economic sectors, particularly in distribution and finance, have failed to take advantage of new information and communications technology to accelerate the growth of productivity, as has happened in other countries, such as the US. Production function studies and econometric model simulations suggest that with appropriate policies the Japanese economy can grow more rapidly and deal with its future problems. The book posits a number of policy proposals which would help to accelerate Japan's economic growthThis book will be of interest to students of the Japanese economy, macroeconomics and international economies, and also to policymakers and professionals interested in Japan’s economy.

Models of the American economy exist in government, research institutes, universities, and private corporations. Given the proliferation, it is wise to take stock because these models come from diverse sources and describe different conditions from alternative points of view. They could be saying different things about the economy. The high-level comparative studies in this volume, gathered from several issues of the International Economic Review, with a substantive introduction and the addition of more comparative material, evaluate the performance of eleven models of the American economy: the Wharton Mark Ill Model; Brookings Model; Hickman-Coen Annual Model; Liu-Hwa Monthly Model; Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Model; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Model; Michigan Quarterly Econometric (MOEM) Model; Wharton Annual and Industry Model; Anticipation Version of the Wharton Mark Ill Model/Fair Model; U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA) Model.Each of the proprietors or builders of these models describes his own system in his own words. These studies come closer than ever before to standardizing model operations for testing purposes.Some of the models are monthly, while others are annual. but the quarterly unit of time is the most frequent. Some are demand oriented, others are supply oriented, and focus on the input-output sectors of the economy. Some use only observed. objective data; others use subjective. anticipatory data. Both large and small models are included. In spite of the diversity, the contributors have cooperated to trace the differences between their models to root causes and to report jointly the results of their research. There are also some general papers that look at model performance from outside the CEME group.

The computer revolution of the 1960s ushered in a golden period of econometric model building. Lawrence Klein was constantly in the forefront of this development. He was awarded the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for this and other contributions to applied econometrics.The 20th century witnessed a great expansion of economics as a scholarly discipline. The editor has chosen a selection of papers which sparked his interest as a student, a teacher and a researcher. This key volume includes both classic articles as well as lesser known papers which Professor Klein judges will stand the test of time.

Financial crises are recurring phenomena that can cause significant economic and societal loss. This book is therefore vitally important as it analyzes why and how financial crises occur, the extent of their impact, and what can be done to prevent their recurrence or reduce the damage they cause. Comprising original and never-before-published papers by distinguished economists, this book offers insights about lessons that were or should have been learned from recent outbreaks of such crises in East Asia and elsewhere. Recent Financial Crises also presents a set of econometric studies of issues such as labor market behavior, investment and productivity, and exchange rate adjustments. Although China did not have a crisis, its economic behavior was closely monitored in order to see if that had any effect on the crisis conditions. In this respect, the book contains an estimation of China's 'core' inflation rate, as well as its 'true' cost of living index, over a 20-year period spanning the Asian financial crisis. In general, collectively, the studies point to a need for ongoing structural reforms to minimize vulnerability to crises or soften their impact. The necessity for resorting to viable safety nets is also stressed. Policymakers and central bankers will find this book of great value, as will scholars and researchers at many levels of academe, involved in financial, business, and international economics.

There is much confusion in the economics literature on wage determination and the employment-inflation trade-off. Few model builders pay as much careful attention to the definition and meaning of long-run concepts as did Albert Ando. Expanding on years of painstaking work by Ando, the contributors elaborate on the main issues of economic analysis and policies that concerned him.Some of the issues discussed include long-run properties of dynamic econometric models, demographic issues of modern times, stabilization policies - especially for Japan - and interaction between monetary and real economy issues, as well as life-cycle behavior patterns, and the appropriate role of the Phillips Curve and the determination of prices.Paying close attention to the concepts and properties of models, Long-run Growth and Short Run Stabilization is for those interested in the macroeconomics of the US, Italy, and Japan. Scholars of aggregative dynamic models based on realistic reasoning will benefit from the information imparted, as will policymakers who want to understand the functioning of the modern economy.

This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently - at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly - depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey.At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.

This major book presents, for the first time, an authoritative history of developments in macroeconometric modelling since the 1930s. It focuses in particular on the construction of mathematico-statistical models of entire economies, estimated from national accounts and other macroeconomic data. International and comparative in scope, the book contains chapters prepared by specialists from the different countries concerned. This landmark book is indispensable to an understanding of the history and development of large scale econometric models of modern economies.

With the Taiwan experience as background, the major theme of this conference is to examine prospective economic development of Taiwan in the 1990s and beyond, together with discussions of the economic development of other countries in the Pacific Rim. Scholars from the United States like Lawrence R Klein (Pennsylvania), Gustav Ranis and John C H Fei (Yale), Lawrence J Lau (Stanford) and Hugh Patrick (Columbia); Chikashi Moriguchi, Mitsuo Saito, Shinichi Ichimura and Hisao Kanamori from Japan; and many others including Dr Samuel C Shieh, President of the Central Bank and Dr Shirley Kuo W Y, Chairperson of the Council for economy, contributed papers. Special guest speakers included President Lee Teng-Hui and Premier Hau Pei-Tsun.

Kei Mori pursued dual research interests as an economist and an engineer. During the 1960s he worked at the Keio University on problems of dynamic economics and anticipated many later developments in this field, both in the construction and application of macrodynamic models. He approached the problem from the point of view of both economics and control engineering. He had advanced ideas at an early stage in computer development about distributed processing, international data management, and control of the dynamic properties of economic systems. As a visiting scholar at the University of Pennsylvania during the late 1960s he participated fully in the new developments there in global model building.During the later years of his life he turned his attention to engineering research, harnessing sunlight for interior plant growth, but he left a lasting impression on economics. These accomplishments are commemorated in this volume by some of his Japanese colleagues and Lawrence Klein with whom he worked at the University of Pennsylvania.This volume contains papers by Kei Mori's colleagues Fumimosa Hamada and Kiroyuki Kosaka who interpreted and analyzed Kei Mori's dynamic models. In addition Mitsuo Saito and associates take up dynamic properties of asset-market models. It is rounded up with active discussions by leading Japanese economic scholars, and a reprinting of one of Kei Mori's original works in econometrics.

This book covers two years of research activities associated with Project LINK, which is based on a model of the world economy, covering 79 countries or regional groupings of countries. Papers dealing with interesting thematic issues were carefully selected and expanded into full articles. The subjects studied by various LINK participants for reporting at annual meetings include exchange rate systems, international investment, environmental protection, international economic institutions, LINK system improvements, and international economic policy. As always, there are contributions dealing with methodological advances for world modeling.

This is the very first book to offer seven substantial econometric models of the Chinese economy with the statistical data used, so that the reader will be able to reproduce them all and test them for any policy alternatives.The book presents up-to-date models produced both inside and outside China, so that readers can understand most of the advanced studies of the Chinese economy by Chinese experts at the present time. This is an invaluable reference for graduate students and scholars working on Chinese economic problems.

This book offers the representative macroeconometric models and their applications for the Japanese economy in different development stages throughout the postwar years up to the present. It presents a summary of three types of macroeconometric models and analyses:As many Asian economies are going through the stages of development that Japan has experienced over the past few decades, this book will be extremely relevant to them and other developing countries as a reference for years to come.