Leland S Burns – författare

The work of Harvey S. Perloff stands as a landmark in the evolution of Anglo­ American planning doctrine. It is impossible to fully capture the essence of the published work in a paragraph, page, or even an entire essay. Yet its highpoints can be identified. His work was innovative, reformist, comprehensive, and ori­ ented toward the future. In emphasizing the greater importance of people com­ pared to things, Perloff repeatedly prodded planners to be concerned with human needs and values. He was critical of the past. But inasmuch as he de­ voted more effort to envisioning what could lie ahead than in recalling the past, his work was markedly optimistic. He once admitted in writing to his "built-in weakness for expecting rational, socially oriented solutions ultimately to win out, no matter what the objective situation seems to be. " To some the expecta­ tion may be seen as naive; to others, as a faith in the wisdom of humankind to take the best course. However received, Perloff's optimism served as a powerful stimulant to keep moving ahead for the best that would come of it. Institutions and the ways they should be shaped and reshaped were of central concern, for institutions (though he rarely used the term) were the in­ struments through which "knowledge was translated into action.

The work of Harvey S. Perloff stands as a landmark in the evolution of Anglo­ American planning doctrine. It is impossible to fully capture the essence of the published work in a paragraph, page, or even an entire essay. Yet its highpoints can be identified. His work was innovative, reformist, comprehensive, and ori­ ented toward the future. In emphasizing the greater importance of people com­ pared to things, Perloff repeatedly prodded planners to be concerned with human needs and values. He was critical of the past. But inasmuch as he de­ voted more effort to envisioning what could lie ahead than in recalling the past, his work was markedly optimistic. He once admitted in writing to his "built-in weakness for expecting rational, socially oriented solutions ultimately to win out, no matter what the objective situation seems to be. " To some the expecta­ tion may be seen as naive; to others, as a faith in the wisdom of humankind to take the best course. However received, Perloff''s optimism served as a powerful stimulant to keep moving ahead for the best that would come of it. Institutions and the ways they should be shaped and reshaped were of central concern, for institutions (though he rarely used the term) were the in­ struments through which "knowledge was translated into action.

This book''s title betrays at once that it belongs in the forecast literature. Peering into the future is a notoriously treacherous venture. Nevertheless, it has become a prac­ tice endemic to the business and government worlds as well as to academia, especially economics. We like to be­ lieve that the enormous growth of forecasting in the face of some disappointments reflects real needs of decision­ makers (as well as the general public''s well-warranted curiosity about the future). Fashion alone could hardly explain the sustained increase in the market for forecast services during the past few decades. Some professionals insist on fine distinctions be­ tween the forecast, the projection, the prediction-and the prophecy. The differences are more semantic than real, as the mandatory resort to Webster confirms. The entry "forecast" includes references to prediction and prophecy without differentiation, while "projection" is defined, among other things, as prediction or "advance estimate." We use mainly the term projections because v PREFACE vi much of our statistical research is based on forward es­ timates of population and households by the U.S. Bu­ reau of the Census which the bureau itself, the greatest fountain of data in the world, records as projections.