Louis Anthony Cox Jr. - Böcker

This book grew out of an effort to salvage a potentially useful idea for greatly simplifying traditional quantitative risk assessments of the human health consequences of using antibiotics in food animals. In 2001, the United States FDA’s Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM) (FDA-CVM, 2001) published a risk assessment model for potential adverse human health consequences of using a certain class of antibiotics, fluoroquinolones, to treat flocks of chickens with fatal respiratory disease caused by infectious bacteria. CVM’s concern was that fluoroquinolones are also used in human medicine, raising the possibility that fluoroquinolone-resistant strains of bacteria selected by use of fluoroquinolones in chickens might infect humans and then prove resistant to treatment with human medicines in the same class of antibiotics, such as ciprofloxacin. As a foundation for its risk assessment model, CVM proposed a dramatically simple approach that skipped many of the steps in traditional risk assessment. The basic idea was to assume that human health risks were directly proportional to some suitably defined exposure metric. In symbols: Risk = K × Exposure, where “Exposure” would be defined in terms of a metric such as total production of chicken contaminated with fluoroquinolone-resistant bacteria that might cause human illnesses, and “Risk” would describe the expected number of cases per year of human illness due to fluoroquinolone-resistant bacterial infections caused by chicken and treated with fluoroquinolones.

In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies.

The Encyclopedia received the 2011 RUSA Award for Outstanding Business Reference SourceAN UNPARALLELED UNDERTAKINGThe Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science is the first multi-volume encyclopedia devoted to advancing the areas of operations research and management science. The Encyclopedia is available online and in print.The Encyclopedia was honored with the distinction of an "Outstanding Business Reference Source" by the Reference and User Services AssociationDETAILED AND AUTHORITATIVEDesigned to be a mainstay for students and professionals alike, the Encyclopedia features four types of articles at varying levels written by diverse, international contributors. Introductory articles provide a broad and moderately technical treatment of core topics.Advanced articles review key areas of research in a citation-rich format similar to that of leading review journals.Technical articles provide more detailed discussions of key concepts addressed in related articles.Case Studies/Historical Interludes present successful and/or interesting examples of operations research and management science methodology in practical or historical contexts.KEY FEATURES OF THE ENCYCLOPEDIA Offers the only cohesive multi-volume reference devoted to operations research and management science theory, methodology, and applicationsIncludes over 600 articles with contributions from over 1,000 authors from 45 countries.Features an Editorial Board comprised of experts in the field who have vast experience in academia, industry, and governmentDesigned to make the content useful and accessible to the widest possible readershipProvides practical tools to maximize benefits and minimize cost and risk

This title addresses the questions of "What is health risk analysis?" and "How can its potentialities be developed to be most valuable to public health decision-makers and other health risk managers?" Risk analysis provides methods and principles for answering these questions. It is divided into methods for assessing, communicating, and managing health risks. Risk assessment quantitatively estimates the health risks to individuals and to groups from hazardous exposures and from the decisions or activities that create them. It applies specialized models and methods to quantify likely exposures and their resulting health risks. Its goal is to produce information to improve decisions. It does this by relating alternative decisions to their probable consequences and by identifying those decisions that make preferred outcomes more likely. Health risk assessment draws on explicit engineering, biomathematical, and statistical consequence models to describe or simulate the causal relations between actions and their probable effects on health. Risk communication characterizes and presents information about health risks and uncertainties to decision-makers and stakeholders.Risk management applies principles for choosing among alternative decision alternatives or actions that affect exposure, health risks, or their consequences.

Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysisFocusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science.Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideasDiscussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisionsCoverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk managementInnovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specifiedRecent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligenceBreakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.

Worldwide health care problems are a hot, growing application in Operations Research. Along with a quickly growing field is an active community of Medical OR and Risk Analysis researchers. Tony Cox is one of the leading research scholars in the field of Risk Heath Risk. His work on health risk modeling will be synthesized along with the work of others on modeling human health risks. The monograph will cover a range of modeling and methodological issues including environmental, experimental, simulation, and mathematical modeling approaches.

In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure.  This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.

Risk Analysis: Foundations, Models, and Methods fully addresses the questions of "What is health risk analysis?" Risk management applies principles for choosing among alternative decision alternatives or actions that affect exposure, health risks, or their consequences.

Improving Risk Analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt.  The constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them.The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 2 discusses social decisions.  Part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution."Tony Cox’s new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know:  How to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. The constructive methods in Improving Risk Analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies.  Better risk management is possible and practicable; Improving Risk Analysis explains how."Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Stanford University"Improving Risk Analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. Tony Cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. This much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses."Seth Guikema, Johns Hopkins University"TonyCox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis.  Cox’s careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. Improving Risk Analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world."Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University

Improving Risk Analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt.  The constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them.The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 2 discusses social decisions.  Part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution."Tony Cox’s new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know:  How to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. The constructive methods in Improving Risk Analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies.  Better risk management is possible and practicable; Improving Risk Analysis explains how."Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Stanford University"Improving Risk Analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. Tony Cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. This much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses."Seth Guikema, Johns Hopkins University"TonyCox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis.  Cox’s careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. Improving Risk Analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world."Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University

Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.

This book highlights quantitative risk assessment and modeling methods for assessing health risks caused by air pollution, as well as characterizing and communicating remaining uncertainties.

This book highlights quantitative risk assessment and modeling methods for assessing health risks caused by air pollution, as well as characterizing and communicating remaining uncertainties.

This book explains and illustrates recent developments and advances in decision-making and risk analysis. It demonstrates how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have not only benefitted from classical decision analysis concepts such as expected utility maximization but have also contributed to making normative decision theory more useful by forcing it to confront realistic complexities. These include skill acquisition, uncertain and time-consuming implementation of intended actions, open-world uncertainties about what might happen next and what consequences actions can have, and learning to cope effectively with uncertain and changing environments. The result is a more robust and implementable technology for AI/ML-assisted decision-making.The book is intended to inform a wide audience in related applied areas and to provide a fun and stimulating resource for students, researchers, and academics in data science and AI-ML, decision analysis, and other closely linked academic fields. It will also appeal to managers, analysts, decision-makers, and policymakers in financial, health and safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management.

The result is a more robust and implementable technology for AI/ML-assisted decision-making.The book is intended to inform a wide audience in related applied areas and to provide a fun and stimulating resource for students, researchers, and academics in data science and AI-ML, decision analysis, and other closely linked academic fields.