Nguyen Duc Trung - Böcker

This book presents recent research on probabilistic methods in economics, from machine learning to statistical analysis. Economics is a very important – and at the same a very difficult discipline. It is not easy to predict how an economy will evolve or to identify the measures needed to make an economy prosper. One of the main reasons for this is the high level of uncertainty: different difficult-to-predict events can influence the future economic behavior. To make good predictions and reasonable recommendations, this uncertainty has to be taken into account.In the past, most related research results were based on using traditional techniques from probability and statistics, such as p-value-based hypothesis testing. These techniques led to numerous successful applications, but in the last decades, several examples have emerged showing that these techniques often lead to unreliable and inaccurate predictions. It is therefore necessary to come up with new techniques for processing the corresponding uncertainty that go beyond the traditional probabilistic techniques.This book focuses on such techniques, their economic applications and the remaining challenges, presenting both related theoretical developments and their practical applications.

To catch up, many application areas have begun relying on data science, i.e., on techniques for extracting models from data, such as data mining, machine learning, and innovative statistics.

To catch up, many application areas have begun relying on data science, i.e., on techniques for extracting models from data, such as data mining, machine learning, and innovative statistics.

This book provides the ultimate goal of economic studies to predict how the economy develops—and what will happen if we implement different policies.

This book provides the ultimate goal of economic studies to predict how the economy develops—and what will happen if we implement different policies.

This book overviews latest ideas and developments in financial econometrics, with an emphasis on how to best use prior knowledge (e.g., Bayesian way) and how to best use successful data processing techniques from other application areas (e.g., from quantum physics).

This book overviews latest ideas and developments in financial econometrics, with an emphasis on how to best use prior knowledge (e.g., Bayesian way) and how to best use successful data processing techniques from other application areas (e.g., from quantum physics).

This volume emphasizes techniques of optimal transport statistics, but it also describes and uses other econometric techniques, ranging from more traditional statistical techniques to more innovative ones such as quantiles (in particular, multidimensional quantiles), maximum entropy approach, and machine learning.

This volume emphasizes techniques of optimal transport statistics, but it also describes and uses other econometric techniques, ranging from more traditional statistical techniques to more innovative ones such as quantiles (in particular, multidimensional quantiles), maximum entropy approach, and machine learning.

This book covers data processing techniques, with economic and financial application being the unifying theme. To make proper investments in economy, the authors need to have a good understanding of the future trends: how will demand change, how will prices change, etc. In general, in science, the usual way to make predictions is:to identify a model that best fits the current dynamics, andto use this model to predict the future behavior.In many practical situations—especially in economics—our past experiences are limited. As a result, the authors can only achieve a partial identification. It is therefore important to be able to make predictions based on such partially identified models—which is the main focus of this book. This book emphasizes partial identification techniques, but it also describes and uses other econometric techniques, ranging from more traditional statistical techniques to more innovative ones such as game-theoretic approach, interval techniques, and machine learning. Applications range from general analysis of GDP growth, stock market, and consumer prices to analysis of specific sectors of economics (credit and banking, energy, health, labor, tourism, international trade) to specific issues affecting economy such as ecology, national culture, government regulations, and the existence of shadow economy. This book shows what has been achieved, but even more important are remaining open problems. The authors hope that this book will:inspire practitioners to learn how to apply state-of-the-art techniques, especially techniques of optimal transport statistics, to economic and financial problems, andinspire researchers to further improve the existing techniques and to come up with new techniques for studying economic and financial phenomena. The authors want to thank all the authors for their contributions and all anonymous referees for their thorough analysis and helpful comments.The publication of this book—and organization of the conference at which these papers were presented—was supported:by the Ho Chi Minh University of Banking (HUB), Vietnam, andby the Vingroup Innovation Foundation (VINIF).The authors thank the leadership and staff of HUB and VINIF for providing crucial support.