Theodore H. Moran – författare

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown dramatically and is now the largest and most stable source of private capital for developing countries and economies in transition, accounting for nearly 50 percent of all those flows. Meanwhile, the growing role of FDI in host countries has been accompanied by a change of attitude, from critical wariness toward multinational corporations to sometimes uncritical enthusiasm about their role in the development process. What are the most valuable benefits and opportunities that foreign firms have to offer? What risks and dangers do they pose? Beyond improving the micro and macroeconomic "fundamentals" in their own countries and building an investment-friendly environment, do authorities in host countries need a proactive (rather than passive) policy toward FDI?In one of the most comprehensive studies on FDI in two decades, Theodore Moran synthesizes evidence drawn from a wealth of case literature to assess policies toward FDI in developing countries and economies in transition. His focus is on investment promotion, domestic content mandates, export-performance requirements, joint-venture requirements, and technology-licensing mandates. The study demonstrates that there is indeed a large, energetic, and vital role for host authorities to play in designing policies toward FDI but that the needed actions differ substantially from conventional wisdom on the topic. Dr. Moran offers a pathbreaking agenda for host governments, aimed at maximizing the benefits they can obtain from FDI while minimizing the dangers, and suggests how they might best pursue this agenda.

Under what conditions might a foreign acquisition of a US company constitute a genuine national security threat to the United States? What kinds of risks and threats should analysts and strategists on the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), as well as their congressional overseers, be prepared to identify and deal with? This study looks at three types of foreign acquisitions of US companies that may pose a legitimate national security threat.The first is a proposed acquisition that would make the United States dependent on a foreign-controlled supplier of goods or services that are crucial to the functioning of the US economy and that this supplier might delay, deny, or place conditions on the provision of those goods or services. The second is a proposed acquisition that would allow the transfer to a foreign-controlled entity of technology or other expertise that might be deployed in a manner harmful to US national interests. The third potential threat is a proposed acquisition that would provide the capability to infiltrate, conduct surveillance on, or sabotage the provision of goods or services that are crucial to the functioning of the US economy. This study analyzes these threats in detail and considers what criteria are needed for a proposed foreign acquisition to be considered threatening. Ultimately, the vast majority of foreign acquisitions pose no credible threat to national security on these grounds.

The rapid emergence of China as a major industrial power poses a complex challenge for global resource markets. Backed by the Chinese government, Chinese companies have been acquiring equity stakes in natural resource companies, extending loans to mining and petroleum investors, and writing long-term procurement contracts for oil and minerals. These activities have aroused concern that China might be "locking up" natural resource supplies, gaining "preferential access" to available output, and extending "control" over the world''s extractive industries. On the demand side, Chinese appetite for vast amounts of energy and minerals puts tremendous strain on the international supply system. On the supply side, Chinese efforts to procure raw materials can either exacerbate or help solve the problems of high demand.Evidence from the 16 largest Chinese natural resource procurement arrangements shows that Chinese efforts—like Japanese deployments of capital and purchase agreements in the late 1970s through the 1980s—fall predominantly into categories that help expand, diversify, and make more competitive the global supplier system. Investigation of smaller projects indicates the 16 largest do not suffer from selection bias. However, Chinese attempts to exercise control over mining of rare earth elements may constitute a significant exception. The investigative focus of this analysis is deliberately narrow and precise, assessing the impact of Chinese resource procurement on the structure of the global supply base. The broader policy discussion in the concluding chapter raises other separate important issues, including the impact of Chinese resource procurement on rogue states, on authoritarian leadership, on civil wars, on corrupt payments and the deterioration of governance standards, and on environmental damage. Such effects may make patterns of Chinese resource procurement objectionable, on grounds quite apart from the debate about possible "control" of access on the part of China and Chinese companies.

This volume is the culmination of Institute investigations on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and development. Today, more than one-third of world trade takes place in the form of intrafirm transactions—that is, trade among the various parts of the same corporate network spread across borders—and the bulk of technology is transferred within the confines of integrated international production systems. This means that FDI and the operations of multinational corporations have become central to the world economy at large. Nowhere is this more important than for developing countries.But as Theodore Moran argues in this new volume, FDI is not a single phenomenon. FDI has such different impacts in the extractive sector, infrastructure, manufacturing and assembly, and services—and presents such distinctive policy challenges—that each broad category of FDI must be treated on its own terms. Indeed, past studies that have aggregated all FDI flows together to try to find some unique relationship to host-country growth or welfare have led to unreliable substantive findings and, sometimes, mistaken policy conclusions. Moran examines each of the principal forms of FDI, extracts the best from previous analysis, and offers new findings and perspectives about how benefits from FDI in each sector can be enhanced and potential damages limited or eliminated.

The policy of the United States and, by extension, that of many oil importing countries, toward OPEC countries is in large part a function of an estimate of the factors that condition oil decisions in exporting countries. In this title, originally published in 1978, Ted Moran examines how immune OPEC can expect to be to the struggles over market shares that traditionally have beset attempts to organize natural resource cartels. Moran’s research leads him to argue that skyrocketing commitments to growth and social betterment leave little slack in national budgets and thus preclude output reductions for any extended period, or at least act as a substantial deterrent, unless such reductions come in support of an effort to raise real oil prices substantially. For any student interested in international policy making, economic development, or environmental studies, this title offers fascinating insights into the oil industry.

The policy of the United States and, by extension, that of many oil importing countries, toward OPEC countries is in large part a function of an estimate of the factors that condition oil decisions in exporting countries. In this title, originally published in 1978, Ted Moran examines how immune OPEC can expect to be to the struggles over market shares that traditionally have beset attempts to organize natural resource cartels. Moran’s research leads him to argue that skyrocketing commitments to growth and social betterment leave little slack in national budgets and thus preclude output reductions for any extended period, or at least act as a substantial deterrent, unless such reductions come in support of an effort to raise real oil prices substantially. For any student interested in international policy making, economic development, or environmental studies, this title offers fascinating insights into the oil industry.