Tom Chivers – författare
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SHORTLISTED FOR THE ROYAL SOCIETY TRIVEDI SCIENCE BOOK PRIZE 2024
''Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting'' Oliver Burkeman''A remarkable book about a remarkable theorem'' Will Storr''Witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you'' Tim HarfordThomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear.Bayes'' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. ''Superforecasters'', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes'' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain.Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes'' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.108 kr
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Brought to you by Penguin. What secrets lie beneath a city?Tom Chivers follows hidden pathways, explores lost islands and uncovers the geological mysteries that burst up through the pavement and bubble to the surface of our streets. From Roman ruins to a submerged playhouse, from an abandoned Tube station to underground rivers, Chivers leads us on a journey into the depths of the city he loves.A lyrical interrogation of a capital city, a landscape and our connection to place, London Clay celebrates urban edgelands: in-between spaces where the natural world and the metropolis collide. Through a combination of historical research, vivid reportage and personal memoir, it will transform how you see London, and cities everywhere.''Tom Chivers, with the forensic eye of an investigator, the soul of a poet, is an engaging presence; a guide we would do well to follow.'' Iain Sinclair, author of The Last London''It''s entertaining, enlightening and deeply moving. You will learn something about London and a good deal about life.'' Justin Webb© Tom Chivers 2021 (P) Penguin Audio 2021
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''A fascinating and delightfully written book about some very smart people who may not, or may, be about to transform humanity forever'' JON RONSON''Beautifully written, and with wonderful humour, this is a thrilling adventure story of our own future'' LEWIS DARTNELL, author of THE KNOWLEDGE and ORIGINSAre paperclips going to destroy life as we know it?What can Mickey Mouse teach us about how to programme AI?Could a more rational approach to life be what saves us all?This is a book about about a community of people who are trying to think rationally about intelligence and what insight they can and can''t give us about the future of the human race. It explains why these people are worried about an AI apocalypse, why they might be right, and why they might be wrong. It is a book about the cutting edge of our thinking on intelligence and rationality right now by the people who stay up all night worrying about it.
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Every day, most of us will read or watch something in the news that is based on statistics in some way. Sometimes it''ll be obvious - ''X people develop cancer every year'' - and sometimes less obvious - ''How smartphones destroyed a generation''. Statistics are an immensely powerful tool for understanding the world, but in the wrong hands they can be dangerous.Introducing you to the common mistakes that journalists make and the tricks they sometimes deploy, HOW TO READ NUMBERS is a vital guide that will help you understand when and how to trust the numbers in the news - and, just as importantly, when not to.
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