Yanhong Wu - Böcker

This monograph is the first to systematically study the bias of estimators and construction of corrected confidence intervals for change-point and post-change parameters after a change is detected by using a CUSUM procedure. Researchers in change-point problems and sequential analysis, time series and dynamic systems, and statistical quality control will find that the methods and techniques are mostly new and can be extended to more general dynamic models where the structural and distributional parameters are monitored. Practitioners, who are interested in applications to quality control, dynamic systems, financial markets, clinical trials and other areas, will benefit from case studies based on data sets from river flow, accident interval, stock prices, and global warming. Readers with an elementary probability and statistics background and some knowledge of CUSUM procedures will be able to understand most results as the material is relatively self-contained. The exponential family distribution is used as the basic model that includes changes in mean, variance, and hazard rate as special cases.There are fundamental differences between the sequential sampling plan and fixed sample size. Although the results are given under the CUSUM procedure, the methods and techniques discussed provide new approaches to deal with inference problems after sequential change-point detection, and they also contribute to the theoretical aspects of sequential analysis. Many results are of independent interests and can be used to study random walk related stochastic models. Yanhong Wu is a visiting lecturer in statistics at the University of the Pacific. Previously, he was a visiting associate professor at the University of Michigan and an assistant professor at the University of Alberta. He has published more than forty research papers on the topics of change-point problem, quality control, mixture models, risk theory, and reliability mathematics. He was the receiver of Pierre-Robillard Award from the Canadian Statistical Society.

Probability models are now a vital componentof every scienti c investigation. This book is intended to introduce basic ideas in stochastic modeling, with emphasis on models and techniques. These models lead to well-known parametric lifetime distributions, such as exponential, Weibull, and gamma distributions, as well as the change-point and mixture models. They also motivate us to consider more general notions of nonparametric lifetime distribution classes. Particular attention has been paid to their applications in reliability, insurance mathematics, and economics. The following topics are the focus in this volume: 1. Exponential Distributions and the Poisson Process; 2. Parametric Lifetime Distributions; 3. Nonparametric Lifetime Distribution Classes; 4. Multivariate Exponential Extensions; 5. Association and Dependence; 6. Renewal Theory; 7. Applications to Reliability, Insurance, Finance, and Credit Risk. Chapter1providesnotationandbasicresultsinprobabilitytheorythatareneeded in the consequent chapters. Chapters 2 and 3 are devoted to models related to exponential distribution and Poisson processes. Particular attentions is paid to the characterizations of exponential distribution and the Poisson process. Two of the most important properties that characterize exponential distribution: the lack of memory property and constant failure rate are discussed in detail. Then the g- eralizations of exponential distribution are examined in three directions: through its parametric form that leads to parametric families of lifetime distributions; via notionsof aging(such as monotonefailure rate) that lead to a varietyof lifetime d- tribution classes; and through lifetime distributions of multiple component systems that lead to multivariate (mainly bivariate) exponential extension.