Sports Betting For Dummies

Swain Scheps has written extensively on gambling topics and is a veteran sports bettor and industry expert. He has provided gaming advice and instruction in the Fodor's Las Vegas travel series and has contributed to Casino Gambling For Dummies. He is a data and analytics professional in Oregon and author of Business Intelligence For Dummies. Follow him on Twitter: @swainscheps

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• Foreword xvIntroduction 1About This Book 1Before You Go Any Further 3Foolish Assumptions 4Icons Used in This Book 5Beyond the Book 5Where to Go from Here 5Part 1: Sports Betting Basics 7Chapter 1: Betting Sports for Fun and Profit 9Eight Days in October 10A surprise win 10Victory’s revenge 10Finding profit in the roller coaster 11Do Sports Bettors Win? 12The Wagers of Sin 14Fans and Bettors: Better Fans 15Sharps and squares 16Advantage bettors 17Why 50 Percent Doesn’t Cut It 1752.38 is the new 50 18How sports bettors win 19Comparative betting success 20What Kind of Sports Bettor Are You? 20Financially interested fan 21Ace Rothstein-esque 21Data guru 22Spread shredder 22A little of everything 23The Legal Landscape of Sports Betting 23I’m not a lawyer but 23Federal laws 24The Supreme Court to the rescue 25State laws 25Sports betting and organized crime 28What Can’t I Bet On? 29Setting Some Goals (and Limits) 29This Is Your Brain on Gambling 30Chapter 2: The Basic Bets 33The Betting Contract 34The premises of the promise 34Monetary policy 36All’s fair 36Overloading the odds 37Illuminating examples 37An introduction to betting with odds 40Betting against a Bookmaker 42The moneyline 43A quick look at vigorish (the vig) 50Point Spreads: Thumb on the Scale 50Losing team, winning bet 52Half is enough 53Point spread = 0 54Betting on a point spread 54Over/Under Betting 56Multi-Bet Wagers 58Parlays: Let it ride 58Parlay odds 60Teasers: A little help 61Variations on a Theme 62Exotic bets 63Prop bets 63Chapter 3: The House 65The Sports Betting Business 66Inventing the modern sports book 67Today’s business 67In-Person Betting 67The big board: Reading the betting menu 68Step by step: How to place an in-person bet 74And in the end, the odds you get are equal to the odds you give 75The morning after 76Online Betting 76Domestic online sports books 78Offshore sports books 78Betting kiosks/casino apps 79I Got a Guy: Private Bookmakers 79State Lotteries 81Part 2: Betting Smart 83Chapter 4: Beating the - Odds 85A Tale of Two Numbers 85Great expectation 86Breakin’ even 2: Electric boogaloo 87Positive EV, No Instructions Included 88The missing piece: Win probability 89Pennies on the dollar 89Staying positive 90Bookmakers and Odds 91Holding onto the handle 92Book balancing 93Balancing the Books 97Odds as a price 97An odds life 99Sharp objects 102Bookmaking Business Models 107Market makers: The odds stork 107Market followers 107The SuperMegaCup odds life cycle example 108Early money/late money 109World premier odds 109The early bird gets the risk (and the reward) 110Odds at odds 111Chapter 5: The Best Bettor Habits 113Winning Habits: A Quick Review 114Betting Approaches 114An idealized bet selection process 115The goal of bet allocation 116Financial diversity 117The value of outs 120Bet sizing 121The Importance of Record-Keeping 125Measures of success 126Bet records 126Bankrolling 127The time dimension 127Time as a flat circle 128Where do you stand? 128Establishing a fiscal period 129How to think about a wealthroll 131Rolling your own 132Metric Superiority: Winning Percentage versus ROI versus Profit 134ROI 134Profit (and loss) 136Win/loss records 139Chapter 6: Full Frontal Nudity (and Some Statistics and Probability) 141Thanks for Nothing, Ancestors 142Narratives instead of numbers 143Probabilities and Single-Outcome Events 144Alternate universes would be nice 145Statistical analysis as a process to find truth(iness) 146Overdue: The Gambler’s Fallacy 147How Randomness Masquerades as Non-Randomness 148The fundamental assumption of randomness 149Inserting randomness into sports assertions 149Descriptive versus predictive 151Predictably random: The bell curve 152The Matter of Sample Size 153The Law of Large Numbers 154Standard deviation: You can do this 156The Wonderful, Life-Changing Beauty of the Amazing Gambler’s Z-Score 160Zee origin story 160The Z-score and sports betting 161Chapter 7: Handicapping the Fundamentals 165The Challenges of Fundamental Analysis 166Outside the Lines, between the Ears 167The home-field advantage example 168The benefits of fundamental analysis 168The downside of fundamental analysis 169Universal Fundamentals Concepts 171Matchup 171Rest and fatigue 175Travel 176Recent performance 177Strength of competition 178Motivation 178Team Sports Factors 180Overall talent and speed 180Game plan 181Coaching 181Schedule/spot analysis 182External Factors 182Weather 183Rules changes 183Officiating 183Venue and crowd 184Measuring Performance Variance 184Chapter 8: Technical Analysis and Modeling 187Like Math, but Fancier 188Analytics 188Modeling 189De-randomizing historical data 191Systems and Angles 192Betting systems 193Betting angles 194The Benefits of Data-Driven Analysis 195What Gets Lost in the Numbers 197Systems, like all handicapping, require patience 197Games change over time 197Teams change over time 197There is no such thing as a single spread or total 198The betting market assimilates winning systems into the odds 198Complexity and the Scourge of P-Hacking 199Characteristics of a Good System or Angle 201Statistically significant 201Predictive 201Bettable 201Timely 202Frequent (enough) 202A First Look at Trend-Spotting Tools 202How it works 203Querying previous games 204Today’s games 205Chapter 9: Power Ratings 207Ranking, Rating? What’s the Difference? 208Totally rated 208Power rating strengths 210Power rating weaknesses 210Developing a Power Rating of Your Own 211Plagiarism is the sincerest form of flattery 212Your first power rating 212P.E class 214Game-by-game data 215What to do in early season 217Putting it all together in Excel 220Part 3: Winning One Sport at a Time 225Chapter 10: Betting to Win on the NFL 27Today’s NFL Game 228                      The Evolution of NFL Spreads and Totals 230Common NFL Bets 231Notation 231Derivative betting and props 231Futures betting 232Betting sides 233Total bets 237Betting the NFL Preseason 239Preseason lines and limits 240Preseason as predictor 241Betting on head coaches 241BET on week 2 losers 243Other preseason betting factors 243NFL Fundamentals 244Schedule spot (travel, bye week) 244Injuries 247Weather 248NFL Systems and Angles 250BET Belichick’s slow starts 250BET a case of the Mondays 251BET restless on the road 251BET growing totals 251Chapter 11: Betting to Win on College Football 253The College Football Schedule 254Scoring Overview 255College Football Bets 257College football sides 257Margin of victory 257College football totals 259Using push frequency to select the best odds 260Multiples: Parlays and teasers in college football 264Thinking about teaser and parlay odds 265Offseason Evaluation and Betting 267That returning starters thing 267Alternatives to returning starters 268BET on hope as a strategy? 269Summer betting 270Why don’t you just meet me in the middle? 270Regular Season Betting 271Essential statistics for betting 272Rest 272Running up the score 274Quarter scoring trends 275Runnin’ and gunnin’ 276Turnovers 277Betting the Post Season 279Revenge is overrated 279Postseason motivation 280Saving yourself 280More College Football Systems 281BET under the home back to back 281BET far to go 282BET over the hype 282BET kick ’em when they’re down 283BET with the hype just this once 283BET over the early season mismatch 284Chapter 12: Betting to Win on NBA Basketball 287Betting the Offensive Explosion 288One and a Half Curses 289The NBA Betting Market 290Preseason betting 291Postseason betting 292BET on #2 Live Crew 294Common NBA Bets 294Sides 294The top of the key 296NBA moneyline 296Totals 298Early season herding 298Quarters and halves 299Handicapping factors in NBA 299NBA Systems and Angles 304Regular season 305Postseason 306Chapter 13: Betting to Win on College Basketball 309The Basics of College Basketball 310Size of market 311The efficiency of the NCAA basketball betting market 311The College Basketball Betting Cycle 312Preseason 312The regular season 312Postseason 312Betting on Games 312Full game spread 313Full game total 316The great under 316Wagering on the 1st and 2nd half 318Extreme total games 320Overtime games 320Buying points (or not) 321NCAA Basketball Teasers 324College Basketball Angles 325DON’T BET the slider 325BET spread streakers 326BET over conference surprises 326Betting the NCAA Tournament 327Seed-by-seed results 328Spread records 330BET tourney twofer against and under big tourney faves 330Chapter 14: Betting to Win on Major League Baseball 331The Basics of Major League Baseball 332Baseball Bets and Odds 333The baseball moneyline 334Total runs bet 336Run line bet 336Baseball’s “ACTION” condition 3389 divided by 2 = 5 inning lines 339Other common baseball bets 341Baseball Scoring Patterns 344Runs per game 344Runs per inning 344Assessing hot and cold streaks 345Starting Pitching and MLB Odds 346BET on rest 346Home/away splits 347The Park Factor 348Park factor statistics 348Park factor research opportunities 349Weather 349Let me tell you about wind 349You are my density 350Other weather effects 351Betting against the Public 352Team streaks 352BET the win streak ends here 353More streak betting 354MLB Systems and Angles 354BET under extreme totals! 355BET big favorites! 356BET pitcher’s duel losers! 357Part 4: Mastering the Craft 359Chapter 15: You versus You 361Who Actually Wins at Sports Betting? 362Decision-Making and Judgment 363Heuristics 363Insensitivity to predictability 364Information cannot inoculate you from randomness 365The illusion of validity 365Thin-slicing 366Misunderstanding regression to the mean 366More Cognitive Biases 367The Gambler’s Fallacy 367Confirmation bias 368Recency bias 369Availability bias 370Familiarity bias 370Peas and carrots 370The Gambler’s Fallacy’s evil twin: The Hot Hand 371The Momentum Fallacy 371The Fundamental Sports Betting Attribution Error (FSBAE) 372Chapter 16: The Sports Bettors’ Essential Excel Toolkit 373Excel Stuff Even Non-Bettors Should Know 374Reference types 374Naming cells and ranges 376Find values in a table with VLookup 378Conditional love: Using IF statements 380Eliminating errors with IfError 383Essential Gambler’s Formulas 384Translating moneyline odds into break-even win percentage 384Win probability into an equivalent moneyline 385Greater than 50% chance to equivalent moneyline 385Tracking win% 386Normalized winning percentage 386Discounting wins 387Kelly Criterion formula 389The Gambler’s Z 389Part 5: The Part of Tens 391Chapter 17: Ten Betting Mistakes You Should Avoid 393Chasing the Late-Night Slumpbuster 393Spinning Your Records 394Limiting Your Options 394Realism: It’s Not Just for Pre-Raphaelite Artists 395Thinking Yesterday’s Game = Today’s Game 396Passing on Passing 396Paying for Picks 397Falling for the Five Star Fallacy 397Listening to “Experts” 397Being Too Focused on Averages 398Chapter 18: 10 (or so) Books You Should Devour to Make Yourself a Better Sports Bettor 401The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver 401SuperForecasting by Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner 402Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic 402Superbookie by Art Manteris 402Failure by Stuart Firestein 403Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz 403How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff 403Sharper by Poker Joe 404The Big Short by Michael Lewis 404The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb 405Moby Dick by Herman Melville 405Part 6: Appendixes 407Appendix A: The Best Online Resources for Sports Bettors 409Appendix B: Online Sports Book Comparison 415Index 419