Causal and Stochastic Elements in Business Cycles

An Essential Extension of Macroeconomics Leading to Improved Predictions of Data

AvArvid Aulin

Häftad, Engelska, 1996

Del 431 i serien Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems

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Beskrivning

The prevailing orthodoxy according to which all macroeconomic theory should be reducible to microeconomics is criticized. Such a dogma excludes from economics the creation of new knowledge, which - as distinguished from the mere transmission of knowledge in education and training - is a social process not reducible to microeconomics. A mathematical extension of the Lucas theory to allow for the effects of creation of knowledge upon economic development is shown to improve essentially the prediction of business cycle data, when compared with the conventional real business cycle models of Kydland and Prescott, Hansen and Rogerson, and Danthine and Donaldson.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum:1996-02-19
Mått:155 x 235 x 8 mm
Vikt:219 g
Format:Häftad
Språk:Engelska
Serie:Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems
Antal sidor:116
Förlag:Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg GmbH & Co. KG
ISBN:9783540605935

Utforska kategorier

Mikroekonomi inom Ekonomi och Ledarskap
Makroekonomi inom Ekonomi och Ledarskap

Innehållsförteckning

I. The Mathematical Tools.- 1. The Hamilton-Jacobi Theory.- 2. Maximization of Accumulating Utility.- II. The Lucas Growth Theory and Its Generalization to Business Cycles.- 3. The Lucas Growth Theory.- 4. Generalization to Include Business Cycles.- III. The General Theory of Economic Growth and Business Cycles.- 5. The Basic Growth Paths.- 6. The Basic Business Cycles.- IV. The Basic Business Cycles as the Causal Part of Business Cycles.- 7. The Predictive Power of the Basic Cycles Compared With That of the Stochastic Models: Ordinary Business Cycles.- 8. Conclusions and Challenges.- 9. The Dynamics of Anomalous Basic Business Cycles and Its Quantitative Verification.- V. The Effects of Nonmaterial Values and Other Ignored Factors Upon Economic Growth.- 10. Primary Causal Factors of Economic Growth.- 11. The Growth Effects of Savings Rate.- VI. An Alternative Vision of the Stochastic Element in Business Cycles.- 12. Stochastic Shocks as Perturbations Superposed Upon the Basic Business Cycles.- 13. Final Result: Both the Stochastic and Nonstochastic BBC Versions Predict Better Than Any of the Models Based On Stochastic Optimization.- References.- Appendix 1: The Dependence of the Predicted Anomalous Correlations on Savings Rate.- Appendix 2: Numerical Tables.