Bruce Spencer - Böcker

Sustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts and their uncertainty. Similarly, the accuracy of population estimates directly affects both the distributions of formula-based government allocations to sub-national units and the apportionment of political representation. The book develops the statistical foundation for addressing such issues. Areas covered include classical mathematical demography, event history methods, multi-state methods, stochastic population forecasting, sampling and census coverage, and decision theory. The methods are illustrated with empirical applications from Europe and the U.S.For statisticians the book provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. For demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, and professionals in related fields, the book presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. To facilitate its classroom use, exercises are included.Over half of the book is readily accessible to undergraduates, but more maturity may be required to benefit fully from the complete text. Knowledge of differential and integral calculus, matrix algebra, basic probability theory, and regression analysis is assumed.Juha M. Alho is Professor of Statistics, University of Joensuu, Finland, and Bruce D. Spencer is Professor of Statistics and Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University. Both have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.

Sustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts and their uncertainty. Similarly, the accuracy of population estimates directly affects both the distributions of formula-based government allocations to sub-national units and the apportionment of political representation. The book develops the statistical foundation for addressing such issues. Areas covered include classical mathematical demography, event history methods, multi-state methods, stochastic population forecasting, sampling and census coverage, and decision theory. The methods are illustrated with empirical applications from Europe and the U.S.For statisticians the book provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. For demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, and professionals in related fields, the book presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. To facilitate its classroom use, exercises are included.Over half of the book is readily accessible to undergraduates, but more maturity may be required to benefit fully from the complete text. Knowledge of differential and integral calculus, matrix algebra, basic probability theory, and regression analysis is assumed.Juha M. Alho is Professor of Statistics, University of Joensuu, Finland, and Bruce D. Spencer is Professor of Statistics and Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University. Both have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.

This monograph treats the question of determining how much to spend for the collection and analysis of public data. This difficult problem for government statisticians and policy-makers is likely to become even more pressing in the near future. The approach taken here is to estimate and compare the benefits and costs of alternative data programs. Since data are used in many ways, the benefits are hard to measure. The strategy I have adopted focuses on use of data to determine fund allocations, particularly in the General Revenue Sharing program. General Revenue Sharing is one of the largest allocation programs in the United States. That errors in population counts and other data cause sizable errors in allocation has been much publicized. Here we analyze whether the accuracy of the 1970 census of population and other data used by General Revenue Sharing should be improved. Of course it is too late to change the 1970 census program, but the method and techniques of analysis will apply to future data programs. In partic­ ular, benefit-cost analyses such as this are necessary for informed decisions about whether the expense of statistical programs is justi­ fied or not. For example, although a law authorizing a mid-decade census was enacted in 1976, there exists great doubt whether funds will be provided so a census can take place in 1985. (The President's Budget for 1981 allows no money for the mid-decade census, despite the Census Bureau's request for $1. 9 million for planning purposes.