Dale Lehman – författare

Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk provides a guide of how to construct applied decision analysis models in spreadsheets. The focus is on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to provide quantitative assessment of uncertainties and key risk drivers. The book presents numerous examples based on real data and relevant practical decisions in a variety of settings, including health care, transportation, finance, natural resources, technology, manufacturing, retail, and sports and entertainment. All examples involve decision problems where uncertainties make simulation modeling useful to obtain decision insights and explore alternative choices. Good spreadsheet modeling practices are highlighted. The book is suitable for graduate students or advanced undergraduates in business, public policy, health care administration, or any field amenable to simulation modeling of decision problems. The book is also useful for applied practitioners seeking to build or enhance their spreadsheet modeling skills.

Features

Step-by-step examples of spreadsheet modeling and risk analysis in a variety of fields

Description of probabilistic methods, their theoretical foundations, and their practical application in a spreadsheet environment

Extensive example models and exercises based on real data and relevant decision problems

Comprehensive use of the @Risk software for simulation analysis, including a free one-year educational software license

Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk provides a guide of how to construct applied decision analysis models in spreadsheets. The focus is on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to provide quantitative assessment of uncertainties and key risk drivers. The book presents numerous examples based on real data and relevant practical decisions in a variety of settings, including health care, transportation, finance, natural resources, technology, manufacturing, retail, and sports and entertainment. All examples involve decision problems where uncertainties make simulation modeling useful to obtain decision insights and explore alternative choices. Good spreadsheet modeling practices are highlighted. The book is suitable for graduate students or advanced undergraduates in business, public policy, health care administration, or any field amenable to simulation modeling of decision problems. The book is also useful for applied practitioners seeking to build or enhance their spreadsheet modeling skills.

Features

Step-by-step examples of spreadsheet modeling and risk analysis in a variety of fields

Description of probabilistic methods, their theoretical foundations, and their practical application in a spreadsheet environment

Extensive example models and exercises based on real data and relevant decision problems

Comprehensive use of the @Risk software for simulation analysis, including a free one-year educational software license

Risk analytics is developing rapidly, and analysts in the field need material that is theoretically sound as well as practical and straightforward. A one-stop resource for quantitative risk analysis, Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management dispenses with the use of complex mathematics, concentrating on how powerful techniques and methods can be used correctly within a spreadsheet-based environment. HighlightsCovers important topics for modern risk analysis, such as frequency-severity modeling and modeling of expert opinionKeeps mathematics to a minimum while covering fairly advanced topics through the use of powerful software toolsContains an unusually diverse selection of topics, including explicit treatment of frequency-severity modeling, copulas, parameter and model uncertainty, volatility modeling in time series, Markov chains, Bayesian modeling, stochastic dominance, and extended treatment of modeling expert opinionEnd-of-chapter exercises span eight application areas illustrating the broad application of risk analysis tools with the use of data from real-world examples and case studiesThis book is written for anyone interested in conducting applied risk analysis in business, engineering, environmental planning, public policy, medicine, or virtually any field amenable to spreadsheet modeling. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk®, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. If you intend to use spreadsheets for decision-supporting analysis, rather than merely as placeholders for numbers, then this is the resource for you.

This book offers a one-stop resource for performing quantitative risk analyses. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. The specific examples in the text demonstrate a number of cutting-edge tools and techniques that are very powerful in risk analysis but that are not available in other spreadsheet simulation programs. The book covers modeling complex correlations, aggregating uncertainty and variability, and estimating parameter and model uncertainty. The included CD-ROM provides a 120-day trial of ModelRisk.

The Study Guide to Accompany Managerial Economics, Third Edition provides students with the homework drill necessary to fully understand and apply concepts covered in the textbook Managerial Economics, Third Edition. Contains multiple choice questions to guide students through their development of crucial graphing and algebraic skills Builds student vocabulary needed to succeed in the subject Fully explicated solutions are provided for each question Extensive online resources are available at http://www.comp.nus.edu.sg/~ipng/mecon.htm including updates to the book, PowerPoint slides, an Instructor’s Manual, and answers to discussion questions A wiki site linked at http://polar.alaskapacific.edu/dlehman provides additional examples as well as contributions from readers and instructors

Risk analytics is developing rapidly, and analysts in the field need material that is theoretically sound as well as practical and straightforward. A one-stop resource for quantitative risk analysis, Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management dispenses with the use of complex mathematics, concentrating on how powerful techniques and methods can be used correctly within a spreadsheet-based environment. Highlights Covers important topics for modern risk analysis, such as frequency-severity modeling and modeling of expert opinionKeeps mathematics to a minimum while covering fairly advanced topics through the use of powerful software toolsContains an unusually diverse selection of topics, including explicit treatment of frequency-severity modeling, copulas, parameter and model uncertainty, volatility modeling in time series, Markov chains, Bayesian modeling, stochastic dominance, and extended treatment of modeling expert opinionEnd-of-chapter exercises span eight application areas illustrating the broad application of risk analysis tools with the use of data from real-world examples and case studiesThis book is written for anyone interested in conducting applied risk analysis in business, engineering, environmental planning, public policy, medicine, or virtually any field amenable to spreadsheet modeling. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk®, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. If you intend to use spreadsheets for decision-supporting analysis, rather than merely as placeholders for numbers, then this is the resource for you.

This book offers a one-stop resource for performing quantitative risk analyses. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. The specific examples in the text demonstrate a number of cutting-edge tools and techniques that are very powerful in risk analysis but that are not available in other spreadsheet simulation programs. The book covers modeling complex correlations, aggregating uncertainty and variability, and estimating parameter and model uncertainty. The included CD-ROM provides a 120-day trial of ModelRisk.