Dick van Dijk - Böcker

The business cycle has long been the focus of empirical economic research. Until recently statistical analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations was dominated by linear time series methods. Over the past 15 years, however, economists have increasingly applied tractable parametric nonlinear time series models to business cycle data; most prominent in this set of models are the classes of Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) models, Markov-Switching AutoRegressive (MSAR) models, and Smooth Transition AutoRegressive (STAR) models. In doing so, several important questions have been addressed in the literature, including: Do out-of-sample (point, interval, density, and turning point) forecasts obtained with nonlinear time series models dominate those generated with linear models? How should business cycles be dated and measured? What is the response of output and employment to oil-price and monetary shocks? How does monetary policy respond to asymmetries over the business cycle? Are business cycles due more to permanent or to transitory negative shocks? And, is the business cycle asymmetric, and does it matter? "Contributions to Economic Analysis" was established in 1952. The series purpose is to stimulate the international exchange of scientific information. The series includes books from all areas of macroeconomics and microeconomics.

With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.

Although many of the models commonly used in empirical finance are linear, the nature of financial data suggests that non-linear models are more appropriate for forecasting and accurately describing returns and volatility. The enormous number of non-linear time series models appropriate for modeling and forecasting economic time series models makes choosing the best model for a particular application daunting. This classroom-tested advanced undergraduate and graduate textbook, first published in 2000, provides a rigorous treatment of recently developed non-linear models, including regime-switching and artificial neural networks. The focus is on the potential applicability for describing and forecasting financial asset returns and their associated volatility. The models are analysed in detail and are not treated as 'black boxes'. Illustrated using a wide range of financial data, drawn from sources including the financial markets of Tokyo, London and Frankfurt.

Although many of the models commonly used in empirical finance are linear, the nature of financial data suggests that non-linear models are more appropriate for forecasting and accurately describing returns and volatility. The enormous number of non-linear time series models appropriate for modeling and forecasting economic time series models makes choosing the best model for a particular application daunting. This classroom-tested advanced undergraduate and graduate textbook, first published in 2000, provides a rigorous treatment of recently developed non-linear models, including regime-switching and artificial neural networks. The focus is on the potential applicability for describing and forecasting financial asset returns and their associated volatility. The models are analysed in detail and are not treated as 'black boxes'. Illustrated using a wide range of financial data, drawn from sources including the financial markets of Tokyo, London and Frankfurt.

With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.