D.R. Cox – författare

The analysis prediction and interpolation of economic and other time series has a long history and many applications. Major new developments are taking place, driven partly by the need to analyze financial data. The five papers in this book describe those new developments from various viewpoints and are intended to be an introduction accessible to readers from a range of backgrounds.The book arises out of the second Seminaire European de Statistique (SEMSTAT) held in Oxford in December 1994. This brought together young statisticians from across Europe, and a series of introductory lectures were given on topics at the forefront of current research activity. The lectures form the basis for the five papers contained in the book.The papers by Shephard and Johansen deal respectively with time series models for volatility, i.e. variance heterogeneity, and with cointegration. Clements and Hendry analyze the nature of prediction errors. A complementary review paper by Laird gives a biometrical view of the analysis of short time series. Finally Astrup and Nielsen give a mathematical introduction to the study of option pricing. Whilst the book draws its primary motivation from financial series and from multivariate econometric modelling, the applications are potentially much broader.

There has been much recent research on the theory of point processes, i.e., on random systems consisting of point events occurring in space or time. Applications range from emissions from a radioactive source, occurrences of accidents or machine breakdowns, or of electrical impluses along nerve fibres, to repetitive point events in an individual''s medical or social history. Sometimes the point events occur in space rather than time and the application here raneg from statistical physics to geography. The object of this book is to develop the applied mathemathics of point processes at a level which will make the ideas accessible both to the research worker and the postgraduate student in probability and statistics and also to the mathemathically inclined individual in another field interested in using ideas and results. A thorough knowledge of the key notions of elementary probability theory is required to understand the book, but specialised "pure mathematical" coniderations have been avoided.

There has been much recent research on the theory of point processes, i.e., on random systems consisting of point events occurring in space or time. Applications range from emissions from a radioactive source, occurrences of accidents or machine breakdowns, or of electrical impluses along nerve fibres, to repetitive point events in an individual''s medical or social history. Sometimes the point events occur in space rather than time and the application here raneg from statistical physics to geography. The object of this book is to develop the applied mathemathics of point processes at a level which will make the ideas accessible both to the research worker and the postgraduate student in probability and statistics and also to the mathemathically inclined individual in another field interested in using ideas and results. A thorough knowledge of the key notions of elementary probability theory is required to understand the book, but specialised "pure mathematical" coniderations have been avoided.