John B. Taylor – författare

An argument that a rules-based reform of the international monetary system, achieved by applying basic economic theory, would improve economic performance.

In this book, the economist John Taylor argues that the apparent correlation of monetary policy decisions among different countries—largely the result of countries'' concerns about the exchange rate—causes monetary policy to deviate from effective policies that stabilize inflation and the economy. He argues that a rules-based reform of the international monetary system, achieved by applying basic economic theory, would improve economic performance.

Taylor shows that monetary polices in recent years have been deployed either defensively, as central banks counteract forces from abroad that affect the exchange rate, or offensively, as central banks attempt to move the exchange rate to gain a competitive advantage. Focusing on the years from 2005 to 2017, he develops an empirical framework to examine two monetary policy instruments: the policy interest rate (the more conventional of the two) and the size of the balance sheet. He finds that an international contagion in central bank decisions about the policy interest rate has accentuated the deviation from standard interest rate rules that have worked in the past. He finds a similar contagion in decisions about the size of the balance sheet. By considering a counterfactual policy in the estimated model, Taylor is able to estimate by how much the policy of recent years has increased exchange rate volatility. After several rounds of monetary actions and reactions aimed at exchange rates, Taylor finds, the international monetary system is left with roughly the same interest rate configuration, but much larger balance sheets to unwind.

This handbook aims to provide a survey of the stet of knowledge in the broad area that includes the theories and facts of economic growth and economic fluctuations, as well as the consequences of monetary conditions. Macroeconomics underwent a evolution in the 70s and 80s due to the introduction of the methods of rational expectations, dynamic optimization, and general equilibrium analysis into macroeconomic models, to the development of new theories of economic fluctuations, and to the introduction of sophisticated methods for the analysis of economic time series. These developments were both important and exciting. However, the rapid change in methods and theories led to considerable-disagreement, especially in the 80s, as to whether there was any core of common beliefs, even about the defining problems of the subject, that united macroeconomists any longer. The 90s have also been exciting, but for a different reason. Modern methods of analysis have progressed to the point where they are now much better able to address practical or substantive macroeconomic questions - whether traditional, new, empirical, or policy related. Indeed, it is no longer necessary to choose between more powerful methods and practical policy concerns. The editors believe that both the progress and the focus on substantive problems has led to a situation in macroeconomics where the area of common ground is considerable, though they cannot yet announce a "new synthesis" that could be endorsed by most scholars working in the field. For this reason this handbook is organized around substantive macroeconomic problems, and not around alternative methodological approaches or schools of thought. The extent to which the field has changed over the past decade is considerable. This work is a response to the need for the survey of the current state of macroeconomics.

This text aims to provide a survey of the state of knowledge in the broad area that includes the theories and facts of economic growth and economic fluctuations, as well as the consequences of of monetary and fiscal policies for general economic conditions.

This text aims to provide a survey of the state of knowledge in the broad area that includes the theories and facts of economic growth and economic fluctuations, as well as the consquences of monetary and fiscal policies for general economic conditions.

In May 2023, the world’s top economic policymakers and academics convened at the Hoover Institution for the annual Monetary Policy Conference. They met at a tumultuous time: the previous year, inflation had surged, and some believed the Federal Reserve was slow to react. What was behind this surge, and why did the Fed fail to forecast inflation, or perceive it when it happened? Participants considered whether the sluggish response made the situation worse, and how to get inflation back under control.

This volume presents the full proceedings from this conference—the presentations, responses, and discussions. In it, participants debate the meaning of getting monetary policy “back on track,” the significance of recent bank failures, and how to improve forecasting and oversight. A persistent underlying question is whether the Fed should follow a rule-like monetary policy, which maintains predictability in response to fluctuating inflation, GDP, and employment rates. Presenters discuss this issue as they recognize the thirtieth anniversary of the Taylor rule, an important guide to practical monetary policy.

Other topics include a five-century history of central bank balance sheets, inflation targeting in Japan, and lessons from Latin America. Together, these proceedings illustrate and dissect the interaction of financial regulation and monetary policy.

Based on the 2024 Monetary Policy Conference held at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track reviews recent global inflation, asking how central banks could have better responded and how they can improve their forecasting and policy strategies to avoid inflationary bursts in the future. Discussions delve into the interactions of fiscal and monetary policies, digital currency, and how the European Central Bank has become more dovish, preferring to keep interest rates low.

The publication shares the presentations from economic experts around the globe, who contribute analysis of monetary policy and strategy from Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the United States, in large economies and in emerging markets. It also reproduces the lively and informative discussions at the conference.

Essays on financial regulation examine asset value and equity levels in the US banking system, Treasury market turmoil, Federal Reserve independence, the 2023 UK pension fund meltdown, and regulatory expansion.

Additional topics include labor market responses to the surge in remote work; how Israel handled financial shocks following the 2023 Hamas attack; and continued fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic: the supply, fiscal, and relative demand shocks of the pandemic and how central banks handled postpandemic inflation.

Fifty Years of the Shadow Open Market Committee: A Retrospective on Its Role in Monetary Policy is a deep dive into the fifty-year history of the Shadow Open Market Committee (SOMC), a group of private academic economists that acts as the Federal Reserve's outside watchdogs, providing candid, economically grounded critiques of the Fed's conduct of policy. The volume, based on a two-day symposium held at the Hoover Institution October 1314, 2024, examines the evolution of the Fed's monetary and credit policies and critical issues it faces today.

Contributors discuss how the SOMC evolved in its approach to monetary policyfrom a strong emphasis on controlling the money supply to rein in the high and variable inflation of the 1970s, to a broader focus on rules-based policies as the best strategy to avoid major policy mistakes and maintain a credible monetary policy. The SOMC has also critiqued the rising frequency of Fed interventions in credit markets, including its participation in rescuing failing banks. Readers will find thought-provoking analyses from leading monetary economists, including rigorous discussions about rules versus discretion and assessments of the Taylor rule, a key policymaking tool.

Chapters by leading economic and financial scholars address many of the pressing central bank policy issues of today, including the Fed's evolving interpretation of its dual mandate (price stability and maximum employment), the expanded role of the Fed in financial markets and the effect on policymaking, the implications of its enlarged balance sheet, and fiscal-monetary policy interactions. An lively discussion among former leading Fed members on outside influences sheds light on factors that affected some of their crucial decisions.

In an environment where the Federal Reserve can significantly affect economic performance, the scholarly contributors to this book emphasize the importance of rules-based monetary policy focused on price stability as the Fed's best contribution to healthy economic growth and maximum employment, and of credible and predictable credit market policy as supporting financial stability. For those committed to understanding the most important issues facing the Fed and the contributions of the SOMC to the monetary policy debate, this volume serves as an essential resource.