Jurgen Wolters – författare

This book contains the most important approaches to analyze time series which may be stationary or nonstationary. It starts with modeling and forecasting univariate time series and then presents Granger causality tests and vector autoregressive models for multiple stationary time series. It also covers modeling volatilities of financial time series with autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models.

This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series, bridging the gap between methods and realistic applications. It presents the most important approaches to the analysis of time series, which may be stationary or nonstationary. Modelling and forecasting univariate time series is the starting point. For multiple stationary time series, Granger causality tests and vector autogressive models are presented. As the modelling of nonstationary uni- or multivariate time series is most important for real applied work, unit root and cointegration analysis as well as vector error correction models are a central topic. Tools for analysing nonstationary data are then transferred to the panel framework. Modelling the (multivariate) volatility of financial time series with autogressive conditional heteroskedastic models is also treated.

This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series, bridging the gap between methods and realistic applications. It presents the most important approaches to the analysis of time series, which may be stationary or nonstationary. Modelling and forecasting univariate time series is the starting point. For multiple stationary time series, Granger causality tests and vector autogressive models are presented. As the modelling of nonstationary uni- or multivariate time series is most important for real applied work, unit root and cointegration analysis as well as vector error correction models are a central topic. Tools for analysing nonstationary data are then transferred to the panel framework. Modelling the (multivariate) volatility of financial time series with autogressive conditional heteroskedastic models is also treated.

Die Festschrift zum 60. Geburtstag von Heinz Konig enthalt Beitrage namhafter Wissenschaftler zu aktuellen wirtschaftstheoretischen und wirtschaftspolitischen Problemen. Dabei handelt es sich sowohl um theoretische als auch um empirische Arbeiten. Der Band gliedert sich in sechs Kapitel. Das erste Kapitel behandelt gesamtwirtschaftliche Probleme und enthalt Beitrage von G. Bombach, W. Hankel, W. Krelle und H.-J. Krupp. Der Untersuchung von Geld und Inflation widmet sich das zweite Kapitel. Die Autoren sind R. Dornbusch, W. Franz, W. Gaab, H.J. Jaksch, G. Kirchgassner und H. Seitz. Mit makrookonomischen Konsumfunktionen (R. Henn, G. Nakhaeizadeh, J. Wolters) und Nachfrageanalysen fur diskrete Alternativen (G. Ronning) beschaftigt sich das dritte Kapitel. Mikrookonomische Arbeiten von M. Beckmann, K. Conrad und H.H. Nachtkamp sind im vierten Kapitel zusammengefasst. Einen weiteren Schwerpunkt (funftes Kapitel) stellt die Analyse qualitativer Daten dar, wie sie insbesondere vom IFO-Institut erfasst werden. Hierzu gehoren die Arbeiten von O. Anderson, M. Nerlove und K.F. Zimmermann. Das sechste und letzte Kapitel enthalt Arbeiten von E. von Boventer, A.E. Ott und R.Thoss und behandelt vorwiegend wirtschaftspolitische Fragestellungen.

In 1999 a number of member states of the European Union will adopt a common currency. This change in the monetary system requires that a Eur­ opean Central Bank is set up and a common monetary policy is pursued. There is general agreement among those countries which are likely to join the common currency that price level stability has to be the ultimate objec­ tive of monetary po1icy. It is an open issue, however, what kind of policy is best suited for that purpose. The alternative strategies under discussion are a direct inflation targeting, an intermediate monetary targeting or a mixture of both. For these policy strategies a stable money demand relation is of cen­ tral importance. Therefore a workshop on Money Demand in Europe was organized at the Humboldt University in Berlin on October 10/11, 1997. This research conference brought together academic and central bank econo­ mists and econometricians predominantly from Europe to discuss issues on specification, estimation and, in particular, stability of money demand rela­ tions both in a single equation and in a systems framework. In this volume revised versions of the papers presented and discussed at the workshop are collected. The volume thereby gives an overview of money demand analysis in Europe on the eve of the introduction of the Euro in some European countries. It contributes to the discussion on a suitable monetary policy for the new European Central Bank.

Das vorliegende Buch ist eine Einführung in die praktische Arbeit mit makroökonometrischen Modellen. Die Autoren sind auf dem Feld international ausgewiesene Wissenschaftler. Die Beiträge thematisieren alle Aspekte des Verständnisses der statistisch/ökonometrisch und ökonomisch-theoretischen Grundlagen makroökonometrischer Modelle, ihrer Wirkungsbeziehungen sowie ihrer Prognose- und Simulationsleistungen. Die Beiträge sind für sich verständlich und wenden sich an Interessierte, ohne spezifische statistische oder ökonometrische Vorkenntnisse vorauszusetzen. Der Leser kann die wichtigsten Methoden und Verfahren anhand der allgemein verfügbaren Verfahren und Daten sowie des verwendeten makroökonometrischen Modells leicht nachvollziehen. Das verwendete Modell ist das RWI-Konjunkturmodell, ein mittelgroßes makroökonometrisches Modell für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland, das seit mehr als 25 Jahren regelmäßig für Prognosen und Simulationen Anwendung findet.

The volume gives an overview of money demand analysis in Europe in the eve of the introduction of the Euro in some European countries. It contributes to the discussion on a suitable monetary policy for the new European Central Bank. The alternative strategies under discussion are a direct inflation targeting, an intermediate monetary targeting or a mixture of both. For these policy strategies a stable money demand relation is of central importance. The articles in this volume present empirical studies of money demand based on up-to-date time series econometric methods.

The volume gives an overview of money demand analysis in Europe in the eve of the introduction of the Euro in some European countries. It contributes to the discussion on a suitable monetary policy for the new European Central Bank. The alternative strategies under discussion are a direct inflation targeting, an intermediate monetary targeting or a mixture of both. For these policy strategies a stable money demand relation is of central importance. The articles in this volume present empirical studies of money demand based on up-to-date time series econometric methods.