Michael P. Clements – författare

This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new developments and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, either in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, or the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, and methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas, as well as their developments informing the mainstream. In the early 21st century, climate change and the forecasting of health expenditures and population are topics of pressing importance.

Bringing together the recent advances and innovative methods in macroeconomic forecasting, this erudite Handbook outlines how to forecast, including following world events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis.With contributions from global experts, chapters explore the use of machine-learning techniques, the value of social media data, and climate change forecasting. Investigating the opportunities and challenges brought about by ‘Big Data’, it examines how data can be used for forecasting by economists and analysts in international organisations as well as private practice. Utilising econometric techniques, it helps quantify the uncertainties regarding the future.The insightful Handbook is an excellent resource for scholars of advanced macroeconomic forecasting, as well as those requiring a better understanding of econometrics, statistics, and modelling approaches. Practitioners in both private and public sectors will greatly appreciate the expert guidance for good future forecasting practices.

A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.

Why should we be interested in macroeconomic survey expectations? Clements presents the nature of survey data, addresses some of the difficulties posed by the way in which survey expectations are elicited and considers the evaluation of point predictions and probability distributions.