Roy D. Laird – författare

In the 1970s Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union have changed from being net grain exporters to major grain importers. Clearly, unfavorable weather has played a key role in this dramatic reversal. However, as several of the authors of this book argue, bad policies have played a key role. In the authors’ analyses of the new five-year plans, a serious question is raised as to whether the nations involved can meet their ambitious goals. Indeed, a strong case is made that the U.S.S.R. will not only continue to be an importer of grains, but that it will increase such imports over the years. Although the CMEA nations have made increases in food output in the last two decades, a point of diminishing returns seems to have been reached. Future demand for food imports may have an enormous impact on international affairs. Even if the nations involved were to collectively meet their ambitious production plans, which the authors doubt, there is no possibility that the area will be able to make any significant contribution to mounting world food demand in the foreseeable future. This fact alone is of great significance in a world facing a mounting food crisis.

Using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, Dr. Laird has compiled a unique catalog of data on every member of the Politburo since 1917. Central to the analysis is a "change index" that provides a running measure of politically motivated changes in Politburo membership. Examining continuities and changes in the Politburo over the years, the author shows that within each of the major leadership eras there were important subperiods marking significant policy changes. He also uses the index, along with other empirical measures, to explain successes and failures of specific policy initiatives. In the final chapters, Dr. Laird identifies the major constraints facing the post-Brezhnev leadership and offers evidence that Gorbachev will likely attempt major economic and administrative reforms, especially in the critical area of agriculture. Because Gorbachev does not yet have the "votes" to initiate reforms, however, major efforts cannot be expected until later in the 1980s when a second period of "the Gorbachev era" is expected to begin.

In the 1970s Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union have changed from being net grain exporters to major grain importers. Clearly, unfavorable weather has played a key role in this dramatic reversal. However, as several of the authors of this book argue, bad policies have played a key role. In the authors’ analyses of the new five-year plans, a serious question is raised as to whether the nations involved can meet their ambitious goals. Indeed, a strong case is made that the U.S.S.R. will not only continue to be an importer of grains, but that it will increase such imports over the years. Although the CMEA nations have made increases in food output in the last two decades, a point of diminishing returns seems to have been reached. Future demand for food imports may have an enormous impact on international affairs. Even if the nations involved were to collectively meet their ambitious production plans, which the authors doubt, there is no possibility that the area will be able to make any significant contribution to mounting world food demand in the foreseeable future. This fact alone is of great significance in a world facing a mounting food crisis.