Pacific Economic Monitor – serie

This publication provides an update of developments in Pacific economies and explores topical policy issues to date.The 10th edition features policy briefs focusing on the effects of climate change, impacts of natural hazards, income and purchasing power, service delivery, economic empowerment of women, and labor markets in the region.

The Pacific’s economic outlook remains solid despite the global slowdown. While social development gains in the region have been steady, some big challenges remain.This issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor begins with an overview of international and regional economic developments.It features 13 articles and policy briefs that explore socioeconomic development in the Pacific, particularly on social protection, education, elderly care, health care and health financing, pension schemes, water and sanitation, nutrition, employment, and financial inclusion.

The 2019 growth forecast for the Pacific subregion has been raised from 3.5% to 4.2%, driven mainly by higher liquefied natural gas production in Papua New Guinea and increased construction expenditure in Samoa and Solomon Islands, as well as lower-than-projected economic decline in Nauru. However, project delays in Papua New Guinea, tepid growth in some economies, and slower recovery in others will likely moderate subregional growth to 2.6% in 2020.Highlights:Trade conflict continues to weigh down on the global economy. Prospects for global growth continue to weaken as the ongoing trade conflict slows growth in major economies, including the People’s Republic of China. The weak external environment translates into a softer 2019–2020 outlook for the Pacific through subdued exports, including from Fiji.Focusing on the development needs of small island developing states. The complex interplay among geographic and physical challenges faced by small island developing states manifests in elevated cost structures and heightened economic vulnerability that severely constrain development prospects. Compounded by fragility from thin institutional capacities for effective governance and elevated climate change risks—a clear “threat multiplier”—these challenges call for a differentiated approach to long-term development strategies among small island developing states.

Most Pacific island countries appear to have avoided direct health impacts from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Yet, the pandemic highlights the need to strengthen their health and social protection systems. This edition of the Pacific Economic Monitor discusses the impacts of COVID-19 and provides an overview of other current economic and development issues in Pacific developing member countries of ADB.

Sufficient provisioning for health and social protection will help support a swift, inclusive recovery in Pacific island countries.This edition of the Pacific Economic Monitor discusses the outlook for 2021 and key issues for recovery from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis, including vaccine procurement and distribution.

The Pacific is expected to recover with moderate growth of 1.4% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, with tourism and widespread vaccination playing key roles.This issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor provides insights on experiences and lessons of Pacific island countries in striking a delicate balance between health and economic concerns. It also outlines ADB's new development strategy to help the region address the impacts of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

Explores how the region can reopen and rebuild. Besides safely resuming travel and protecting health, a resilient recovery will depend on promoting fiscal sustainability and strengthening economic management, including regional cooperation to revitalize tourism.

The Pacific region is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2022 and 5.4% in 2023 as most economies emerge from the worst of the pandemic-induced downturn.This issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor focuses on building and financing resilience to climate change and disasters. It also explores the impacts on the region of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, such as higher commodity prices.

This issue explores how Pacific developing member countries can strengthen their post-pandemic social protection systems to help address long-standing development concerns and boost resilience to further shocks.It assesses individual countries' economies and outlines ways they could improve their social protection systems, despite depleted resources. Exploring megatrends facing the subregion, including population ageing and migration, it shows how investing in universal social protection policies can have a long-term impact on reducing poverty, vulnerability, and social exclusion.

Pacific economies are bouncing back as tourism recovers and infrastructure projects resume, but inflationary pressures and vulnerability to natural hazards remain downside risks.This edition of the Pacific Economic Monitor tracks the rebound of some tourism-dependent economies; explores new opportunities from agriculture, digitalization, and fisheries; and analyzes ways to mitigate fiscal risks and support sustainable economic growth. It highlights how policies can better support women entrepreneurs and how strengthening fiscal reserves can help countries recover more quickly from shocks.