Bill McGuire – författare

Den globala upphettningen är här, med temperatur­rekord, torka, skogsbränder, regnstormar, översvämningar och en allt större oförutsägbarhet vad gäller vädermönster. Och då befinner vi oss ändå bara i början på den omvälvning det handlar om. Det talas ofta om ”det nya normala”, men detta normalläge kommer i själva verket inte att infinna sig än på flera decennier. Så mycket upphettning har våra utsläpp redan ”bakat in” i systemet. Men det som vi gör nu – eller inte gör – avgör vad som händer på längre sikt. I "Växthusplaneten" diskuterar Bill McGuire, professor emeritus i Geophysical and Climate Hazards vid University College i London, mänsklighetens påverkan på jordens klimat och livsvillkor på ett lika koncist som begripligt vis. Han går också igenom vad dramatiska klimatförändringar i det geologiska förflutna – som den tvåhundratusen år långa PETM-episoden för 56 miljoner år sedan, då krokodiler trivdes vid nordpolen – säger om klimatsystemets många återkopplingar och mänsklighetens reella manöverutrymme. Konsekvenserna av vårt kollektiva ”koldioxidexperiment” riskerar att bli katastrofala – detta också på grund av en samhällsordning som förnekar problemets omfattning och fördröjer den grundliga ekonomiska, strukturella och vardagliga omställning som krävs. Bill McGuire är född 1954 och professor emeritus i Geophysical and Climate Hazards, University College, London.

Very Short Introductions: Brilliant, Sharp, InspiringIn this Very Short Introduction Bill McGuire takes a fresh look at our sometimes perilous planet, and evaluates the causes and consequences of what used to be thought of as 'natural' hazards through the prism of planetary heating and the continuing destabilising of our climate. Our world has always been a dangerous and deadly place, and storms, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic blasts have taken an enormous toll on lives and livelihoods throughout recorded history and before. In the past, such events were regarded first as acts of God, or gods, and later as simply a consequence of hazardous natural phenomena that are a normal part of how our planet works. In recent decades, however, this picture has changed. Relentless global heating, arising from the 2.4 trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere as a result of human activities, has completely altered the 'natural' hazard landscape. There has long been a debate about whether - due to the influence of societal and economic factors - there is such a thing as a truly natural disaster. Now, the debate has moved on to whether or not the hazards that cause them can any longer be described as entirely natural. Our damaged climate has driven an explosion of extreme weather, which has become ever more apparent in recent years via the super-charging of storms, floods, heatwaves and wildfires. The fingerprints of global heating can be detected even in individual events that would have been extremely unlikely to have happened, or even been impossible, in its absence. Meanwhile earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions continue to plague communities and take lives, while even here there are links with a changing climate that have the potential to magnify their occurrence and impacts. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

Why past climate change tells us it's almost too late. A warning and a rallying-cry. 'Read it and weep, or read it and win' Chris Packham A global refugee crisis. Extreme storms. Agriculture devastated. Economic ruin. Societal collapse. These are not just possibilities but likely outcomes of our ongoing failure to stem greenhouse gas emissions — and in our lifetimes. This alarming book explains why. The Fate of the World is a 4.6-billion-year history of the Earth, putting contemporary global heating in the context of geological epochs and periods to reveal what past climate change can tell us about our planet’s future. It highlights with unflinching realism how what’s happening now compares with what happened in deep time — and explains the devastating impacts that are now more likely than not.Renowned expert Bill McGuire reveals that our climate already all but matches that of the last interglacial period — the Eemian — when sea levels were 6 to 9 metres higher, and that it is on track to mimic the Pliocene period, when giant camels roamed the Arctic, as soon as the 2030s. Later this century, parts of our world could be experiencing double-figure temperature rises as we continue to wind the clock back 50 million years in a couple of centuries — and without urgent preparation, our civilization is very poorly placed to survive.Notwithstanding the urgency of the message, this is a hopeful book. The future will be forbidding, but every tonne of carbon we do not emit will make it less so. We can all do our bit, and we must.If you read just one book on the climate crisis, make it this one.

Life on earth will come to an end. It's just a matter of when. A Guide to the End of the World focuses on the many potential catastrophes facing our planet and our species in the future, and looks at both the probability of these events happening and our chances of survival. Coverage extends from discussion of the likely consequences of the current global warming to the inevitable destruction of the earth in the far future, when it is enveloped by our giant, bloated sun. In between, other 'end of the world scenarios' will be examined, including the New Ice Age, asteroid and comet impact, supervolcanoes, and mega-tsunami.

The Asian tsunami of Christmas 2004 killed more than a quarter of a million people and shattered the lives of many more. The ruthless indifference of the forces of nature to our fragile existence on the surface of the planet could not have been more shockingly demonstrated, nor the sheer scale of their power more tragically displayed. Massive earthquakes and super-eruptions, collision with vast boulders from space, the insidious, potentially catastrophic dangers of global warming: what can mere humans do against these natural hazards, which have devastated life on Earth in the past and could do so again? Are there real alternatives to simply awaiting our doom? Bill McGuire believes there are. Following on from A Guide to The End of the World, in which he presented a frightening vision of the hazards that face us, in Surviving Armageddon he guides us through the major threats, assessing the solutions that have been proposed, from the reasonable to the bizarre. There really are ways in which we can, perhaps not prevent, but limit the damage caused by future disasters, he concludes.As a volcanologist, McGuire has sensed at first hand the dangers of volcanic eruptions, and he was deeply involved in the scientific analysis of the Asian tsunami. In this lively narrative, he combines the science behind natural hazards with enthralling accounts of his own experiences and narrow escapes while working in some of the most dangerous parts of the world. He gives us a down-to-Earth view of how we might (just) deflect Armageddon, and live to tell the tale.

Twenty thousand years ago our planet was an icehouse. Temperatures were down six degrees; ice sheets kilometres thick buried much of Europe and North America and sea levels were 130m lower. The following 15 millennia saw an astonishing transformation as our planet metamorphosed into the temperate world upon which our civilisation has grown and thrived. One of the most dynamic periods in Earth history saw rocketing temperatures melt the great ice sheets like butter on a hot summer's day; feeding torrents of freshwater into ocean basins that rapidly filled to present levels. The removal of the enormous weight of ice at high latitudes caused the crust to bounce back triggering earthquakes in Europe and North America and provoking an unprecedented volcanic outburst in Iceland. A giant submarine landslide off the coast of Norway sent a tsunami crashing onto the Scottish coast while around the margins of the continents the massive load exerted on the crust by soaring sea levels encouraged a widespread seismic and volcanic rejoinder. In many ways, this post-glacial world mirrors that projected to arise as a consequence of unmitigated climate change driven by human activities.Already there are signs that the effects of climbing global temperatures are causing the sleeping giant to stir once again. Could it be that we are on track to bequeath to our children and their children not only a far hotter world, but also a more geologically fractious one?

Twenty thousand years ago our planet was an icehouse. Temperatures were down six degrees; ice sheets kilometres thick buried much of Europe and North America and sea levels were 130m lower. The following 15 millennia saw an astonishing transformation as our planet metamorphosed into the temperate world upon which our civilisation has grown and thrived. One of the most dynamic periods in Earth history saw rocketing temperatures melt the great ice sheets like butter on a hot summer's day; feeding torrents of freshwater into ocean basins that rapidly filled to present levels. The removal of the enormous weight of ice at high latitudes caused the crust to bounce back triggering earthquakes in Europe and North America and provoking an unprecedented volcanic outburst in Iceland. A giant submarine landslide off the coast of Norway sent a tsunami crashing onto the Scottish coast while around the margins of the continents the massive load exerted on the crust by soaring sea levels encouraged a widespread seismic and volcanic rejoinder. In many ways, this post-glacial world mirrors that projected to arise as a consequence of unmitigated climate change driven by human activities. Already there are signs that the effects of climbing global temperatures are causing the sleeping giant to stir once again. Could it be that we are on track to bequeath to our children and their children not only a far hotter world, but also a more geologically fractious one?

Climate Forcing of Geological Hazards provides a valuable new insight into how climate change is able to influence, modulate and trigger geological and geomorphological phenomena, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and landslides; ultimately increasing the risk of natural hazards in a warmer world. Taken together, the chapters build a panorama of a field of research that is only now becoming recognized as important in the context of the likely impacts and implications of anthropogenic climate change. The observations, analyses and interpretations presented in the volume reinforce the idea that a changing climate does not simply involve the atmosphere and hydrosphere, but also elicits potentially hazardous responses from the solid Earth, or geosphere.Climate Forcing of Geological Hazards is targeted particularly at academics, graduate students and professionals with an interest in environmental change and natural hazards. As such, we are hopeful that it will encourage further investigation of those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity, and of the future ramifications for society and economy.

Originally published in 1995, Monitoring Active Volcanoes is a comprehensive text which addresses the importance of volcano surveillance in the context of forecasting eruptive activity and mitigating its effects. The traditional core of seismic and ground deformation monitoring is discussed, along with more innovative techniques involving the recording of microgravity and micromagnetic variations, and the changing compositions of volcanic gases and liquids. The role of satellites is stressed, particularly with regard to the capabilities for measuring surface deformation, recognizing thermal anomalies and monitoring gas and ash plumes from space platforms. This book provides an invaluable insight into how and why volcanoes are monitored. It will be of interest to volcanologists, geophysicists and earth scientists.

Originally published in 1995, Monitoring Active Volcanoes is a comprehensive text which addresses the importance of volcano surveillance in the context of forecasting eruptive activity and mitigating its effects. The traditional core of seismic and ground deformation monitoring is discussed, along with more innovative techniques involving the recording of microgravity and micromagnetic variations, and the changing compositions of volcanic gases and liquids. The role of satellites is stressed, particularly with regard to the capabilities for measuring surface deformation, recognizing thermal anomalies and monitoring gas and ash plumes from space platforms. This book provides an invaluable insight into how and why volcanoes are monitored. It will be of interest to volcanologists, geophysicists and earth scientists.

'It's a paradox but this was one of the most chilling books I've read this year. It's the definitive guide to where we're heading' ANTHONY HOROWITZ'The Earth is already in a dangerous phase of heating. Many scientists admit privately to actually being "scared" by recent weather extremes. But the public doesn't like pessimism, so we environment journalists hint at future optimism. This book provides a more steely-eyed view on how we can cope with a hothouse world.' - ROGER HARRABIN, former BBC Environment Analyst'This accessible and authoritative book is a must-read for anyone who still thinks it could be OK to carry on as we are for a little bit longer, or that climate chaos might not affect them or their kids too badly.' MIKE BERNERS-LEE is a professor at Lancaster University, founder of Small World Consultancy and author of There is No Planet B: A Handbook for the Make or Break Years'If you read just one book about the menace of climate breakdown, make it this one.' - TIM RADFORD, Climate News NetworkWe inhabit a planet in peril. Our once temperate world is locked on course to become a hothouse entirely of our own making.Hothouse Earth: An Inhabitant's Guide provides a post-COP26 perspective on the climate emergency, acknowledging that it is now practically impossible to keep this side of the 1.5°C dangerous climate change guardrail. The upshot is that we can no longer dodge the arrival of disastrous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown that will come as a hammer blow to global society and economy.Bill McGuire, Professor of Geophysical and Climate Hazards, explains the science behind the climate crisis and for the first time presents a blunt but authentic picture of the sort of world our children will grow old in, and our grandchildren grow up in; a world that we catch only glimpses of in today's blistering heatwaves, calamitous wildfires and ruinous floods and droughts. Bleak though it is, the picture is one we must all face up to, if only to spur genuine action - even at this late stage - to stop a harrowing future becoming a truly cataclysmic one.