Committee on Population - Böcker

This book addresses nine relevant questions: Will population growth reduce the growth rate of per capita income because it reduces the per capita availability of exhaustible resources? How about for renewable resources? Will population growth aggravate degradation of the natural environment? Does more rapid growth reduce worker output and consumption? Do rapid growth and greater density lead to productivity gains through scale economies and thereby raise per capita income? Will rapid population growth reduce per capita levels of education and health? Will it increase inequality of income distribution? Is it an important source of labor problems and city population absorption? And, finally, do the economic effects of population growth justify government programs to reduce fertility that go beyond the provision of family planning services?

This book examines how changes in reproductive patterns (such as the number and timing of births and spacing between births) have affected the health of women and children in the developing world. It reviews the relationships between contraceptive use, reproductive patterns, and health; the effects of differences and changes in reproductive patterns; as well as the role of family planning in women's fertility and health.

These four papers supplement the book Contraception and Reproduction: Health Consequences for Women and Children in the Developing World by bringing together data and analyses that would otherwise be difficult to obtain in a single source. The topics addressed are an analysis of the relationship between maternal mortality and changing reproductive patterns; the risks and benefits of contraception; the effects of changing reproductive patterns on infant health; and the psychosocial consequences to women of controlled fertility and contraceptive use.

This valuable book summarizes recent research by experts from both the natural and social sciences on the effects of population growth on land use. It is a useful introduction to a field in which little quantitative research has been conducted and in which there is a great deal of public controversy. The book includes case studies of African, Asian, and Latin American countries that demonstrate the varied effects of population growth on land use. Several general chapters address the following timely questions: What is meant by land use change? Why are ecological research and population studies so different? What are the implications for sustainable growth in agricultural production? Although much work remains to be done in quantifying the causal connections between demographic and land use changes, this book provides important insights into those connections, and it should stimulate more work in this area.

This book examines issues concerning how developing countries will have to prepare for demographic and epidemiologic change. Much of the current literature focuses on the prevalence of specific diseases and their economic consequences, but a need exists to consider the consequences of the epidemiological transition: the change in mortality patterns from infectious and parasitic diseases to chronic and degenerative ones. Among the topics covered are the association between the health of children and adults, the strong orientation of many international health organizations toward infant and child health, and how the public and private sectors will need to address and confront the large-scale shifts in disease and demographic characteristics of populations in developing countries.

As the United States and the rest of the world face the unprecedented challenge of aging populations, this volume draws together for the first time state-of-the-art work from the emerging field of the demography of aging. The nine chapters, written by experts from a variety of disciplines, highlight data sources and research approaches, results, and proposed strategies on a topic with major policy implications for labor forces, economic well-being, health care, and the need for social and family supports.

Older Americans, even the oldest, can now expect to live years longer than those who reached the same ages even a few decades ago. Although survival has improved for all racial and ethnic groups, strong differences persist, both in life expectancy and in the causes of disability and death at older ages. This book examines trends in mortality rates and selected causes of disability (cardiovascular disease, dementia) for older people of different racial and ethnic groups. The determinants of these trends and differences are also investigated, including differences in access to health care and experiences in early life, diet, health behaviors, genetic background, social class, wealth and income. Groups often neglected in analyses of national data, such as the elderly Hispanic and Asian Americans of different origin and immigrant generations, are compared. The volume provides understanding of research bearing on the health status and survival of the fastest-growing segment of the American population.

The reported population of American Indians and Alaska Natives has grown rapidly over the past 20 years. These changes raise questions for the Indian Health Service and other agencies responsible for serving the American Indian population. How big is the population? What are its health care and insurance needs? This volume presents an up-to-date summary of what is known about the demography of American Indian and Alaska Native population--their age and geographic distributions, household structure, employment, and disability and disease patterns. This information is critical for health care planners who must determine the eligible population for Indian health services and the costs of providing them. The volume will also be of interest to researchers and policymakers concerned about the future characteristics and needs of the American Indian population.

In recent years there have been alarming reports of rapid decreases in life expectancy in the New Independent States (former members of the Soviet Union). To help assess priorities for health policy, the Committee on Population organized two workshops--the first on adult mortality and disability, the second on adult health priorities and policies. Participants included demographers, epidemiologists, public health specialists, economists, and policymakers from the NIS countries, the United States, and Western Europe. This volume consists of selected papers presented at the workshops. They assess the reliability of data on mortality, morbidity, and disability; analyze regional patterns and trends in mortality rates and causes of death; review evidence about major determinants of adult mortality; and discuss implications for health policy.

The last 35 years or so have witnessed a dramatic shift in the demography of many developing countries. Before 1960, there were substantial improvements in life expectancy, but fertility declines were very rare. Few people used modern contraceptives, and couples had large families. Since 1960, however, fertility rates have fallen in virtually every major geographic region of the world, for almost all political, social, and economic groups. What factors are responsible for the sharp decline in fertility? What role do child survival programs or family programs play in fertility declines? Casual observation suggests that a decline in infant and child mortality is the most important cause, but there is surprisingly little hard evidence for this conclusion. The papers in this volume explore the theoretical, methodological, and empirical dimensions of the fertility-mortality relationship. It includes several detailed case studies based on contemporary data from developing countries and on historical data from Europe and the United States.

The design of welfare programs in an era of reform and devolution to the states must take into account the likely effects of programs on demographic behavior. In the past, most research on welfare has examined labor market issues, although there have also been some important evaluations of the effects of Aid to Families with Dependent Children on out-of-wedlock childbearing. Much less information is available on other issues equally central to the debate, including effects on abortion decisions, marriage and divorce, intrafamily relations, household formation, and living arrangements. This book of papers contains reviews and syntheses of existing evidence bearing on the demographic impacts of welfare and ideas for how to evaluate new state-level reforms.

The design of welfare programs in an era of reform and devolution to the states must take into account the likely effects of programs on demographic behavior. Most research on welfare in the past has examined labor market issues, although there have also been some important evaluations of the effects of the Aid to Families with Dependent Children Program on out-of-wedlock childbearing. Much less information is available on other issues equally central to the debate, including effects on abortion decisions, marriage and divorce, intrafamily relations, household formation, and living arrangements. This volume of papers contains reviews and syntheses of existing evidence bearing on the demographic impacts of welfare and ideas for how to evaluate new state-level reforms.

Because forced migration situations are often physically dangerous and politically complicated, estimates of these populations are often difficult to make. Estimates of forced migration vary, but it is probable that there are about 23 million refugees and more than 30 million internally displaced people.In order to assist specific groups of forced migrants and also to better understand the general plight of forced migrants, good demographic data are needed. However, collecting data on forced migration presents tremendous challenges for normal data collection processes and standards.To explore a range of issues about internally displaced persons and refugees, the Committee on Population of the National Research Council organized a Workshop on the Demography of Forced Migration in Washington, D.C., in November 1997. The purpose of the workshop was to investigate the ways in which population and other social scientists can produce more useful demographic information about forced migrant populations and how they differ. This report summarizes the background papers prepared for the meeting, the presentations, and the general discussion.

This volume assesses the evidence, and possible mechanisms, for the associations between women's education, fertility preferences, and fertility in developing countries, and how these associations vary across regions. It discusses the implications of these associations for policies in the population, health, and education sectors, including implications for research.

This book sheds light on one of the most controversial issues of the decade. It identifies the economic gains and losses from immigration--for the nation, states, and local areas--and provides a foundation for public discussion and policymaking. Three key questions are explored: * What is the influence of immigration on the overall economy, especially national and regional labor markets? * What are the overall effects of immigration on federal, state, and local government budgets? * What effects will immigration have on the future size and makeup of the nation's population over the next 50 years? The New Americans examines what immigrants gain by coming to the United States and what they contribute to the country, the skills of immigrants and those of native-born Americans, the experiences of immigrant women and other groups, and much more. It offers examples of how to measure the impact of immigration on government revenues and expenditures--estimating one year's fiscal impact in California, New Jersey, and the United States and projecting the long-run fiscal effects on government revenues and expenditures.Also included is background information on immigration policies and practices and data on where immigrants come from, what they do in America, and how they will change the nation's social fabric in the decades to come.

This report summarizes presentations and discussions at the Workshop on the Social Processes Underlying Fertility Change in Developing Countries, organized by the Committee on Population of the National Research Council (NRC) in Washington, D.C., January 29-30, 1998. Fourteen papers were presented at the workshop; they represented both theoretical and empirical perspectives and shed new light on the role that diffusion processes may play in fertility transition. These papers served as the basis for the discussion that is summarized in this report.

In 1997 the committee published Reproductive Health in Developing Countries: Expanding Dimensions, Building Solutions, a report that recommended actions to improve reproductive health for women around the world. As a follow- on activity, the committee proposed an investigation into the social and economic consequences of maternal morbidity and mortality. With funding from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, and the U.S. Agency for International Development, the committee organized a workshop on this topic in Washington, DC, on October 19-20, 1998. The Consequences of Maternal Morbidity and Maternal Mortality assesses the scientific knowledge about the consequences of maternal morbidity and mortality and discusses key findings from recent research. Although the existing research on this topic is scarce, the report drew on similar literature on the consequences of adult disease and death, especially the growing literature on the socioeconomic consequences of AIDS, to look at potential consequences from maternal disability and death.

Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate?Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

What can social science, and demography in particular, reasonably expect to learn from biological information? There is increasing pressure for multipurpose household surveys to collect biological data along with the more familiar interviewer-respondent information. Given that recent technical developments have made it more feasible to collect biological information in non-clinical settings, those who fund, design, and analyze survey data need to think through the rationale and potential consequences. This is a concern that transcends national boundaries. Cells and Surveys addresses issues such as which biologic/genetic data should be collected in order to be most useful to a range of social scientists and whether amassing biological data has unintended side effects. The book also takes a look at the various ethical and legal concerns that such data collection entails.

In recent years the number of complex humanitarian emergencies around the world has been steadily increasing. War and political, ethnic, racial, and religious strife continually force people to migrate against their will. These forced migrants create a stream of new challenges for relief workers and policy makers. A better understanding of the characteristics of refugee populations and of the population dynamics of these situations is vital. Improved research and insights can enhance disaster management, refugee camp administration, and repatriation or resettlement programs. Forced Migration and Mortality examines mortality patterns in complex human- itarian emergencies, reviewing the state of knowledge, as well as how patterns may change in the new century. It contains four case studies of mortality in recent emergencies: Rwanda, North Korea, Kosovo, and Cambodia. Because refugees and internally displaced persons are likely to continue to be a significant humanitarian concern for many years, research in this field is critical.This is the first book to comprehensively explore forced migration and mortality and it provides useful material for researchers, policy makers, and relief workers.

Aging is a process that encompasses virtually all aspects of life. Because the speed of population aging is accelerating, and because the data needed to study the aging process are complex and expensive to obtain, it is imperative that countries coordinate their research efforts to reap the most benefits from this important information. Preparing for an Aging World looks at the behavioral and socioeconomic aspects of aging, and focuses on work, retirement, and pensions; wealth and savings behavior; health and disability; intergenerational transfers; and concepts of well-being. It makes recommendations for a collection of new, cross-national data on aging populationsa "data that will allow nations to develop policies and programs for addressing the major shifts in population age structure now occurring. These efforts, if made internationally, would advance our understanding of the aging process around the world.

Demographers and public health specialists have been surprised by the rapid increases in life expectancy, especially at the oldest ages, that have occurred since the early 1960s. Some scientists are calling into question the idea of a fixed upper limit for the human life span. There is new evidence about the genetic bases for both humans and other species. There are also new theories and models of the role of mutations accumulating over the life span and the possible evolutionary advantages of survival after the reproductive years. This volume deals with such diverse topics as the role of the elderly in other species and among human societies past and present, the contribution of evolutionary theory to our understanding of human longevity and intergenerational transfers, mathematical models for survival, and the potential for collecting genetic material in household surveys. It will be particularly valuable for promoting communication between the social and life sciences.

This volume is part of an effort to review what is known about the determinants of fertility transition in developing countries and to identify lessons that might lead to policies aimed at lowering fertility. It addresses the roles of diffusion processes, ideational change, social networks, and mass communications in changing behavior and values, especially as related to childbearing. A new body of empirical research is currently emerging from studies of social networks in Asia (Thailand, Taiwan, Korea), Latin America (Costa Rica), and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya, Malawi, Ghana). Given the potential significance of social interactions to the design of effective family planning programs in high-fertility settings, efforts to synthesize this emerging body of literature are clearly important.

Longitudinal data collection and analysis are critical to social, demographic, and health research, policy, and practice. They are regularly used to address questions of demographic and health trends, policy and program evaluation, and causality. Panel studies, cohort studies, and longitudinal community studies have proved particularly important in developing countries that lack vital registration systems and comprehensive sources of information on the demographic and health situation of their populations. Research using data from such studies has led to scientific advances and improvements in the well-being of individuals in developing countries. Yet questions remain about the usefulness of these studies relative to their expense (and relative to cross-sectional surveys) and about the appropriate choice of alternative longitudinal strategies in different contexts. For these reasons, the Committee on Population convened a workshop to examine the comparative strengths and weaknesses of various longitudinal approaches in addressing demographic and health questions in developing countries and to consider ways to strengthen longitudinal data collection and analysis.This report summarizes the discussion and opinions voiced at that workshop.

Situations involving conflict and forced migration have become increasingly commonplace in today's world. The need to understand the causes, consequences, and characteristics of these situations is creating a burgeoning field of research. But given the nature of complex emergency settings, traditional research guidelines may be inappropriate. The research and policy community has recognized this problem and has begun to address issues surrounding the ethics of doing research in emergency settings and among conflict-affected and displaced populations. The Roundtable on the Demography of Forced Migration, under the aegis of the Committee on Population of the National Research Council, held a workshop to examine some of these issues. This report to the roundtable summarizes the workshop presentations and discussion.

The Roundtable on the Demography of Forced Migration was established by the Committee on Population of the National Research Council in 1999. The roundtable is composed of experts from academia, government, philanthropy, and international organizations. The roundtable's purpose is to serve as an interdisciplinary, nonpartisan focal point for taking stock of what is known about demographic patterns in refugee situations, to apply this knowledge base to assist both policy makers and relief workers, and to stimulate new directions for innovation and scientific inquiry in this growing field of study. The roundtable meets yearly and has also organized a series of workshops (held concurrently with roundtable meetings) on some of the specific aspects of the demography of refugee and refugee-like situations, including mortality patterns, demographic assessment techniques, and research ethics in complex humanitarian emergencies. This report to the Roundtable on the Demography of Forced Migration is a summary of one such workshop, which was held on September 20-21, 2000, under the aupices of the Committee on Population.The purpose of this meeting was to address a basic problem faced by all humanitarian relief agencies in an emergency: how to count the numbers of displaced persons and assess their general well-being. Workshop participants examined different methods for estimating refugee populations and their mortality rates, whether mortality was due to disease and malnutrition or human rights abuses. Demographic Assessment Techniques in Complex Humanitarian Emergencies: Summary of a Workshop explores the applicability of various methods in different types of emergency settings, how to improve existing methodologies and develop new ones, and the difficulties encountered by personnel in the field, including security, logistics, and access to a population.

Admittedly, the world and the nature of forced migration have changed a great deal over the last two decades. The relevance of data accumulated during that time period can now be called into question. The roundtable and the Program on Forced Migration at the Mailman School of Public Health of Columbia University have commissioned a series of epidemiological reviews on priority public health problems for forced migrants that will update the state of knowledge. Malaria Control During Mass Population Movements and Natural Disasters -- the first in the series, provides a basic overview of the state of knowledge of epidemiology of malaria and public health interventions and practices for controlling the disease in situations involving forced migration and conflict.

Despite recent advances in our understanding of the genetic basis of human behavior, little of this work has penetrated into formal demography. Very few demographers worry about how biological processes might affect voluntary behavior choices that have demographic consequences even though behavioral geneticists have documented genetics effects on variables such as parenting and divorce. Offspring: Human Fertility Behavior in Demographic Perspective brings together leading researchers from a wide variety of disciplines to review the state of research in this emerging field and to identify promising research directions for the future.