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An argument for how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence.
"Illuminating." —New York Times
"Extraordinary." —Science Friday
“Correlation is not causation.” This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, once led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, with causal analysis taking center stage in AI and other applications, the old taboos are a thing of the past.
The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and others, established causality on a firm scientific basis. Pearl showed how intuitive models can interface with data to help answer causal questions, such as whether a drug will cure an illness or, counterfactually, whether an illness would have persisted absent the drug. These models provide a blueprint for causal AI to learn and take responsibility for its mistakes.
Updated with a new preface and summary of recent advances, The Book of Why outlines the basics of cause and effect for lay readers and scientists alike, providing tools to explore the observable world and worlds that might have been.
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This lively science history relates one of the great recent breakthroughs in planetary astronomy-a successful theory of the birth of the Moon. Science journalist Dana Mackenzie traces the evolution of this theory, one little known outside the scientific community: a Mars-sized object collided with Earth some four billion years ago, and the remains of this colossal explosion-the Big Splat-came together to form the Moon. Beginning with notions of the Moon in ancient cosmologies, Mackenzie relates the fascinating history of lunar speculation, moving from Galileo and Kepler to George Darwin (son of Charles) and the Apollo astronauts, whose trips to the lunar surface helped solve one of the most enigmatic mysteries of the night sky: who hung the Moon?
Dana Mackenzie (Santa Cruz, CA) is a freelance science journalist. His articles have appeared in such magazines as Science, Discover, American Scientist, The Sciences, and New Scientist.
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How the study of causality revolutionized science and the world
"Correlation does not imply causation." This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades, and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality--the study of cause and effect--on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl''s work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
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Dana Mackenzie celebrates the joy of chess - the ordinary, everyday chess we amateurs play. For this book, he has selected forty of his favorite posts from his award-winning chess blog, including a diverse mix of stories, philosophical musings, chess improvement tips, and game analysis.
In each story, the fun leaps off the page. We attend club nights, team tournaments, and state championships. We are on the road and at the board. We enjoy the company of famous and not-so-famous chess personalities. You will read about the Hook and Ladder Trick and Dana’s personal favorite opening, the Bryntse Gambit, presented here with analysis found nowhere else.
A special chapter is devoted to Mike Splane’s invitation-only chess parties, a monthly ‘meeting of the minds’ for masters and aspiring masters in the San Francisco Bay Area. There was no resting on one’s laurels in this crowd. No matter how well you thought you played, you could expect some tough questions and spirited disagreements. The book continues in the spirit of the blog, preserving a dialogue between author and reader that is rarely found in other chess books, or any books for that matter.