The purpose of this study is to analyze the alternative growth paths open to a region under various policies designed to control the growth oftour­ ism. This is motivated by the current interest of decision-makers in con­ trolling the growth of tourism. Such interest and any policies which emanate from it may prove detrimental unless a thorough understanding of the consequences of these policies are the foundation upon which the decisions are made. The study consists of four parts, each is written by an author or a group of authors. Thus, while the logical sequence of the parts and the feedbacks among them unify the study, the methodology adopted in each is different, reflecting the diversity and dexterity of forecasting techniques in econo­ mics. This variety of techniques is desirable in itself as it exposes the reader to some of the alternative approaches. In chapter 1, the theory of regional growth, and in particular the dis­ tinction between the supply-based and the demand-based models, is dis­ cussed. The role played by natural resource constraints is shown to be absent from both types of models, and it is argued that this role can be investigated by considering the alternative growth paths available to the region through variations in the rate oftuilization of the resource. To ac­ complish that, however, a model of regional growth is needed. The empiri­ cal evidence provided favour a demand-type model. A model of this type is developed and utilized in succeeding parts of the study.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the alternative growth paths open to a region under various policies designed to control the growth oftour­ ism. This is motivated by the current interest of decision-makers in con­ trolling the growth of tourism. Such interest and any policies which emanate from it may prove detrimental unless a thorough understanding of the consequences of these policies are the foundation upon which the decisions are made. The study consists of four parts, each is written by an author or a group of authors. Thus, while the logical sequence of the parts and the feedbacks among them unify the study, the methodology adopted in each is different, reflecting the diversity and dexterity of forecasting techniques in econo­ mics. This variety of techniques is desirable in itself as it exposes the reader to some of the alternative approaches. In chapter 1, the theory of regional growth, and in particular the dis­ tinction between the supply-based and the demand-based models, is dis­ cussed. The role played by natural resource constraints is shown to be absent from both types of models, and it is argued that this role can be investigated by considering the alternative growth paths available to the region through variations in the rate oftuilization of the resource. To ac­ complish that, however, a model of regional growth is needed. The empiri­ cal evidence provided favour a demand-type model. A model of this type is developed and utilized in succeeding parts of the study.

1 A number of economic explanations for the process of regional growth have been proposed in the literature. Apart from pure scholarly interest, under­ standing the factors that have promoted growth in some regions while others have been left lagging is of crucial importance for the design of policy aimed at helping "depressed" regions or promoting balanced growth among regions. The purpose of studying the process of regional growth is to delineate the variables that have the major influence on growth, to under­ stand the mechanisms through which these variables exert their forces, and to determine if the interactions of these forces alter the magnitudes of response or the manner in which a regional economy responds to stimuli. The first step in this process is the determination of the primary forces responsible for the growth or stagnation of a region. These forces should be few in number if the analyses of the mechanisms that transmit their effects and the interactions among those mechanisms are to be reasonably tract­ able. Regional economists cannot draw on many of the results of studies of the economic development of nations, for many of the forces isolated by development economists, such as culture, tradition, or barriers to free flows of goods and factors of production, have no viable role to play in the explanation of the variety of growth experience within a system of regions.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the alternative growth paths open to a region under various policies designed to control the growth oftour­ ism. This is motivated by the current interest of decision-makers in con­ trolling the growth of tourism. Such interest and any policies which emanate from it may prove detrimental unless a thorough understanding of the consequences of these policies are the foundation upon which the decisions are made. The study consists of four parts, each is written by an author or a group of authors. Thus, while the logical sequence of the parts and the feedbacks among them unify the study, the methodology adopted in each is different, reflecting the diversity and dexterity of forecasting techniques in econo­ mics. This variety of techniques is desirable in itself as it exposes the reader to some of the alternative approaches. In chapter 1, the theory of regional growth, and in particular the dis­ tinction between the supply-based and the demand-based models, is dis­ cussed. The role played by natural resource constraints is shown to be absent from both types of models, and it is argued that this role can be investigated by considering the alternative growth paths available to the region through variations in the rate oftuilization of the resource. To ac­ complish that, however, a model of regional growth is needed. The empiri­ cal evidence provided favour a demand-type model. A model of this type is developed and utilized in succeeding parts of the study.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the alternative growth paths open to a region under various policies designed to control the growth oftour­ ism. This is motivated by the current interest of decision-makers in con­ trolling the growth of tourism. Such interest and any policies which emanate from it may prove detrimental unless a thorough understanding of the consequences of these policies are the foundation upon which the decisions are made. The study consists of four parts, each is written by an author or a group of authors. Thus, while the logical sequence of the parts and the feedbacks among them unify the study, the methodology adopted in each is different, reflecting the diversity and dexterity of forecasting techniques in econo­ mics. This variety of techniques is desirable in itself as it exposes the reader to some of the alternative approaches. In chapter 1, the theory of regional growth, and in particular the dis­ tinction between the supply-based and the demand-based models, is dis­ cussed. The role played by natural resource constraints is shown to be absent from both types of models, and it is argued that this role can be investigated by considering the alternative growth paths available to the region through variations in the rate oftuilization of the resource. To ac­ complish that, however, a model of regional growth is needed. The empiri­ cal evidence provided favour a demand-type model. A model of this type is developed and utilized in succeeding parts of the study.

1 A number of economic explanations for the process of regional growth have been proposed in the literature. Apart from pure scholarly interest, under­ standing the factors that have promoted growth in some regions while others have been left lagging is of crucial importance for the design of policy aimed at helping "depressed" regions or promoting balanced growth among regions. The purpose of studying the process of regional growth is to delineate the variables that have the major influence on growth, to under­ stand the mechanisms through which these variables exert their forces, and to determine if the interactions of these forces alter the magnitudes of response or the manner in which a regional economy responds to stimuli. The first step in this process is the determination of the primary forces responsible for the growth or stagnation of a region. These forces should be few in number if the analyses of the mechanisms that transmit their effects and the interactions among those mechanisms are to be reasonably tract­ able. Regional economists cannot draw on many of the results of studies of the economic development of nations, for many of the forces isolated by development economists, such as culture, tradition, or barriers to free flows of goods and factors of production, have no viable role to play in the explanation of the variety of growth experience within a system of regions.