Nicholas Mangee – författare

This pioneering book analyzes the ability of narratives to help forecast stock market performance. Nicholas Mangee delves into the forecasting component of the novelty-narrative hypothesis (NNH) and its two pillars of relevance realization and contextualized meaning, using a wide range of empirical evidence to demonstrate how narratives can help inform investment strategies.Chapters examine the forecasting element of the NNH in the context of real-world investment scenarios, drawing on detailed case studies, news event classification, and online search data. They shed light on the significant yet contingent ways in which narratives predict firm, industry, and aggregate market outcomes; improve portfolio performance over time; and reduce the degree of instability in expected return regressions. Challenging dominant paradigms, Mangee provides a rational role for sentiment in stock market forecasting, emphasizing the importance of the interaction between sentiment and narrative dynamics in explaining future fundamentals and returns.Students and academics in financial economics and regulation, economic psychology, risk and uncertainty, and economic thought will greatly benefit from this comprehensive exploration of stock market narratives. This incisive book is also an invaluable resource for traders, fund managers, policymakers, and other practitioners interested in enhancing forecasting strategies.

This pioneering book analyzes the ability of narratives to help forecast stock market performance. Nicholas Mangee delves into the forecasting component of the novelty-narrative hypothesis (NNH) and its two pillars of relevance realization and contextualized meaning, using a wide range of empirical evidence to demonstrate how narratives can help inform investment strategies.Chapters examine the forecasting element of the NNH in the context of real-world investment scenarios, drawing on detailed case studies, news event classification, and online search data. They shed light on the significant yet contingent ways in which narratives predict firm, industry, and aggregate market outcomes; improve portfolio performance over time; and reduce the degree of instability in expected return regressions. Challenging dominant paradigms, Mangee provides a rational role for sentiment in stock market forecasting, emphasizing the importance of the interaction between sentiment and narrative dynamics in explaining future fundamentals and returns.Students and academics in financial economics and regulation, economic psychology, risk and uncertainty, and economic thought will greatly benefit from this comprehensive exploration of stock market narratives. This incisive book is also an invaluable resource for traders, fund managers, policymakers, and other practitioners interested in enhancing forecasting strategies.

'Animal spirits' is a term that describes the instincts and emotions driving human behaviour in economic settings. In recent years, this concept has been discussed in relation to the emerging field of narrative economics. When unscheduled events hit the stock market, from corporate scandals and technological breakthroughs to recessions and pandemics, relationships driving returns change in unforeseeable ways. To deal with uncertainty, investors engage in narratives which simplify the complexity of real-time, non-routine change. This book assesses the novelty-narrative hypothesis for the U.S. stock market by conducting a comprehensive investigation of unscheduled events using big data textual analysis of financial news. This important contribution to the field of narrative economics finds that major macro events and associated narratives spill over into the churning stream of corporate novelty and sub-narratives, spawning different forms of unforeseeable stock market instability.

''Animal spirits'' is a term that describes the instincts and emotions driving human behaviour in economic settings. In recent years, this concept has been discussed in relation to the emerging field of narrative economics. When unscheduled events hit the stock market, from corporate scandals and technological breakthroughs to recessions and pandemics, relationships driving returns change in unforeseeable ways. To deal with uncertainty, investors engage in narratives which simplify the complexity of real-time, non-routine change. This book assesses the novelty-narrative hypothesis for the U.S. stock market by conducting a comprehensive investigation of unscheduled events using big data textual analysis of financial news. This important contribution to the field of narrative economics finds that major macro events and associated narratives spill over into the churning stream of corporate novelty and sub-narratives, spawning different forms of unforeseeable stock market instability.