Paul Goodwin – författare

This latest of many Grenadian-inspired books provides a useful supplement to the exclusively Grenadian-oriented volumes of recent years. Six of the articles represent conflicting interpretations of Maurice Bishop's New Jewel Movement and the US invasion of 1983. . . Formats and foci for the other Caribbean pieces vary, but they establish clearly that domestic, not external forces are what shape political development in the Caribbean, making arguments regarding Grenada's (or Cuba's) threat to the region less credible. . . . . [The] editors put the events in Grenada in perspective, a task that has long been overdue. For all levels. ChoiceThe Caribbean After Grenada examines the major political and economic developments in the Caribbean since the events of October 1983 in Grenada. The contributors represent a range of ideological viewpoints--from neo-Marxist to conservative--and thus offer an unusually balanced and informed discussion of the lessons of Grenada and the problems of revolution, conflict, and democracy faced by contemporary Caribbean societies. Coverage is extremely broad in scope and encompasses all geographic regions, from the islands furthest out in Atlantic to the Central American Republics, all major regime types, and all cultural/linguistic areas. An ideal supplemental text for courses on comparative politics, the Caribbean, and economic development, this volume brings a much needed historical perspective to the study of events since the Grenada crisis.

This book provides research on the human element in forecasting. It focuses on how we can improve our ability to accurately forecast.

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

Go beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecastingA variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software’s predictions, and even more advanced “power user” techniques for the software itself—but your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software.Taking a non-mathematical approach to the various forecasting models, the discussion covers common everyday decisions such as model choice, forecast adjustment, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and much more. Clear explanations help you better understand seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared, and an exploration of psychological biases provides insight into the decision to override the software’s forecast. With a focus on choice, interpretation, and judgement, this book goes beyond the technical manuals to help you truly grasp the more intangible skills that lead to better accuracy. Explore the advantages and disadvantages of alternative forecasting methods in different situationsMaster the interpretation and evaluation of your software’s outputLearn the subconscious biases that could affect your judgement toward intervention Find expert guidance on testing, planning, and configuration to help you get the most out of your softwareRelevant to sales forecasters, demand planners, and analysts across industries, Profit From Your Forecasting Software is the much sought-after “missing piece” in forecasting reference.

APPLYING DECISION ANALYSIS FOR EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT JUDGMENT ACROSS DIVERSE FIELDS Sound decision-making is essential for success in today’s complex organizational environments. Now in its sixth edition, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment provides students and professionals with the tools and insights needed to make informed, rational choices in the face of uncertainty. Written for managers and students without advanced mathematical training, this leading textbook clearly explains a wide range of decision analysis techniques while addressing the psychological biases and pitfalls that often undermine judgment. Throughout the text, authors Paul Goodwin and George Wright combine behavioral insights with practical analytical tools, bridging the gap between foundational theory and real-world practice. Presenting complex concepts in a clear, accessible style suitable for both students and professionals, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is an invaluable resource for anyone tasked with evaluating alternatives, anticipating future scenarios, and balancing multiple objectives in professional contexts. It is ideal for upper-level undergraduate, MBA, and executive education courses in decision analysis, management judgment, strategic planning, and environmental planning. NEW TO THIS EDITION: Introduces the role of artificial intelligence in decision-making, highlighting benefits, limitations, and future potentialProvides a step-by-step guide to applying the Intuitive Logics method of scenario planningDemonstrates a streamlined approach for integrating scenario planning with multi-attribute decision analysisNew practical examples illustrating successful applications of decision analysis and scenario planningIncludes the latest psychological research on multi-attribute decision-making and behavioral “nudges”Incorporates the SPIES method for estimating probability distributions and expands coverage of the Delphi method with recommendations for robust implementationAdds Cooke’s Classical Method for aggregating expert probability judgments and discusses the success of superforecastersWILEY ADVANTAGE: Provides a reader-friendly introduction to decision analysis without requiring advanced mathematical knowledgeIntegrates behavioral insights to address psychological biases that can undermine managerial judgmentCovers a wide range of qualitative and quantitative decision analysis techniques applicable to real-world problemsApplies concepts to diverse contexts, including business, public administration, and environmental planningEncourages active learning through end-of-chapter exercises that reinforce understanding and critical thinkingSupports flexible teaching approaches with a companion website containing additional exercises, case studies, quizzes, and simulations

Some people fear and mistrust numbers. Others want to use them for everything. After a long career as a statistician, Paul Goodwin has learned the hard way that the ones who want to use them for everything are a very good reason for the rest of us to fear and mistrust them. Something Doesn't Add Up is a fieldguide to the numbers that rule our world, even though they don't make sense.Wry, witty and humane, Goodwin explains mathematical subtleties so painlessly that you hardly need to think about numbers at all. He demonstrates how statistics that are meant to make life simpler often make it simpler than it actually is, but also reveals some of the ways we really can use maths to make better decisions. Enter the world of fitness tracking, the history of IQ testing, China's social credit system, Effective Altruism, and learn how someone should have noticed that Harold Shipman was killing his patients years before they actually did. In the right hands, maths is a useful tool. It's just a pity there are so many of the wrong hands about.