George Wright – författare

This book helps managers move beyond the idea that the future of business will resemble the past and allows them to use scenarios to imagine multiple perspectives. The concepts of organizational realities, experience, and beliefs are explored to encourage and embrace change in business organizations for a successful future.

Good decision making is crucial to good management and successful strategic planning. Sadly the decision making capabilities within organisations are often poor. Using a fascinating and very readable combination of psychological theory, pencil-and-paper thought problems, and material from contemporary media, George Wright demonstrates why high-profile strategic disasters occur and how to prevent your own organisation from making similar mistakes. Case studies include Marks & Spencer, Dyson, Baring's Bank and the Millennium Dome.

This book provides research on the human element in forecasting. It focuses on how we can improve our ability to accurately forecast.

This book presents a contemporary view of the approaches and theories that inform global scenario planning and foresight science, providing practical recommendations for improving scenario development processes. Its insights bridge the gap between last century’s foundations and this century’s innovations.Megan M. Crawford and George Wright bring together a global team of expert authors to illustrate the development of scenario storylines and the role of a facilitator in team-based activities and processes. They detail practical scenario applications, provide guidance for practice improvement, and analyse the use of scenario thinking in strategic choice. Together, the authors show the path of scenario development, from foundation to validation, and explore new and broader views of futures thinking, scenario methodologies, innovative developments, and practical applications that reflect the evolution of the field. With guidance for practitioners and support for academics across the fields of futures and foresight science, Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning is a valuable resource. Students of business, management, innovation and technology will also find this book beneficial.

This book presents a contemporary view of the approaches and theories that inform global scenario planning and foresight science, providing practical recommendations for improving scenario development processes. Its insights bridge the gap between last century’s foundations and this century’s innovations.Megan M. Crawford and George Wright bring together a global team of expert authors to illustrate the development of scenario storylines and the role of a facilitator in team-based activities and processes. They detail practical scenario applications, provide guidance for practice improvement, and analyse the use of scenario thinking in strategic choice. Together, the authors show the path of scenario development, from foundation to validation, and explore new and broader views of futures thinking, scenario methodologies, innovative developments, and practical applications that reflect the evolution of the field. With guidance for practitioners and support for academics across the fields of futures and foresight science, Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning is a valuable resource. Students of business, management, innovation and technology will also find this book beneficial.

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

APPLYING DECISION ANALYSIS FOR EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT JUDGMENT ACROSS DIVERSE FIELDS Sound decision-making is essential for success in today’s complex organizational environments. Now in its sixth edition, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment provides students and professionals with the tools and insights needed to make informed, rational choices in the face of uncertainty. Written for managers and students without advanced mathematical training, this leading textbook clearly explains a wide range of decision analysis techniques while addressing the psychological biases and pitfalls that often undermine judgment. Throughout the text, authors Paul Goodwin and George Wright combine behavioral insights with practical analytical tools, bridging the gap between foundational theory and real-world practice. Presenting complex concepts in a clear, accessible style suitable for both students and professionals, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is an invaluable resource for anyone tasked with evaluating alternatives, anticipating future scenarios, and balancing multiple objectives in professional contexts. It is ideal for upper-level undergraduate, MBA, and executive education courses in decision analysis, management judgment, strategic planning, and environmental planning. NEW TO THIS EDITION: Introduces the role of artificial intelligence in decision-making, highlighting benefits, limitations, and future potentialProvides a step-by-step guide to applying the Intuitive Logics method of scenario planningDemonstrates a streamlined approach for integrating scenario planning with multi-attribute decision analysisNew practical examples illustrating successful applications of decision analysis and scenario planningIncludes the latest psychological research on multi-attribute decision-making and behavioral “nudges”Incorporates the SPIES method for estimating probability distributions and expands coverage of the Delphi method with recommendations for robust implementationAdds Cooke’s Classical Method for aggregating expert probability judgments and discusses the success of superforecastersWILEY ADVANTAGE: Provides a reader-friendly introduction to decision analysis without requiring advanced mathematical knowledgeIntegrates behavioral insights to address psychological biases that can undermine managerial judgmentCovers a wide range of qualitative and quantitative decision analysis techniques applicable to real-world problemsApplies concepts to diverse contexts, including business, public administration, and environmental planningEncourages active learning through end-of-chapter exercises that reinforce understanding and critical thinkingSupports flexible teaching approaches with a companion website containing additional exercises, case studies, quizzes, and simulations

The essaysthat comprise thisvolume were written over the period of some ten years, for different purposes and on different occasions, but they are unitedby a number of features, which this preface may serve to indicate. While the collection begins with a translation drawn from the fourth p- sentation of Hobbes's political thought, namely, the Latin Leviathan of 1668, after The Elements of Law (1640), De Cive (1642 and 1647) and the English Leviathan of 1651, the focus of the essays is largely on theEnglish version of his masterpiece of political philosophy. It isthe center of gravityinthe twenty eight years spanninghis departure from England for exile in France in 1640 till the publication in 1668 of the Latin Leviathan,withits lengthy and c- plex Appendix. The translation andintroduction of theAppendix, previously published,appears here with several revisions and additions, as does the essay 'Thomas Hobbes and the EconomicTrinity. ' A second feature common to these essays isthe deliberate attempttomake sense of thereligious elements inHobbes's thought, bothintheir own rightand inrelation to his politics and natural science. These themes are woven together in complex ways.For instance, objecting to the use of Greek philosophic language and concepts to interpret the doctrines of the Christian religion, he propounds what he takes to be a more thoroughly scriptural interpretation, in pursuit of the goal of demolishing the basis for anypower inthe state independent of thecivil sovereign.