Raffaello Cervigni – författare

If not addressed in time, climate change is expected to exacerbate Nigeria's current vulnerability to weather swings and limit its ability to achieve and sustain the objectives of Vision 20:2020 [as defined in http://www.nationalplanning.gov.ng/index.php/national-plans/nv20-2020].The likely impacts include: A long-term reduction in crop yields of 20-30 percent Declining productivity of livestock, with adverse consequences on livelihoods Increase in food imports (up to 40 percent for rice long term) Worsening prospects for food security, particularly in the north and the southwest A long-term decline in GDP of up to 4.5 percentThe impacts may be worse if the economy diversifies away from agriculture more slowly than Vision 20:2020 anticipates, or if there is too little irrigation to counter the effects of rising temperatures on rain-fed yields. Equally important, investment decisions made on the basis of historical climate may be wrong: projects ignoring climate change might be either under- or over-designed, with losses (in terms of excess capital costs or foregone revenues) of 20-40 percent of initial capital in the case of irrigation or hydropower. Fortunately, there is a range of technological and management options that make sense, both to better handle current climate variability and to build resilience against a harsher climate: By 2020 sustainable land management practices applied to 1 million hectares can offset most of the expected shorter-term yield decline; gradual extension of these practices to 50 percent of cropland, possibly combined with extra irrigation, can also counter-balance longer-term climate change impacts. Climate-smart planning and design of irrigation and hydropower can more than halve the risks and related costs of making the wrong investment decision. The Federal Government could consider 10 short-term priority responses to build resilience to both current climate variability and future change through actions to improve climate governance across sectors, research and extension in agriculture, hydro-meteorological systems; integration of climate factors into the design of irrigation and hydropower projects, and mainstreaming climate concerns into priority programmes, such as the Agriculture Transformation Agenda.

The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world's 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapid expansion of the level of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors, such as power, oil and gas, agriculture and transport. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon foot-print, emissions of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades. This study finds that there are several options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives of vision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilising emissions at 2010 levels, and with domestic benefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. These benefits include cheaper and more diversified electricity sources; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry; more productive and climate -resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. The study outlines several actions that the Federal Government could undertake to facilitate the transition towards a low carbon economy, including enhanced governance for climate action, integration of climate consideration in the Agriculture Transformation Agenda, promotion of energy efficiency programmes, scale-up of low carbon technologies in power generation (such as renewables an combined cycle gas turbines), and enhance vehicle fuel efficiency.

The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world’s 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapid expansion of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors of the economy. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon footprint, emission of greenhouse gases would more than double in the next two decades. By consolidating and synthesising the results of the sector-specific, in-depth analyses, volume 1 of this effort (Low-Carbon Development: Opportunities for Nigeria, 9780821399255) found options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives of Vision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilising emissions at 2010 levels, and with domestic benefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. The present study, volume 2, is a collection of the technical reports on the four sectors of inquiry—agriculture and land use, oil and gas, power, and transport—that informed the preparation of the first volume. For agriculture and land use, the Government has set ambitious targets for increasing the domestic agricultural production six-fold by 2020. The study analyses the mitigation potential of the agricultural sector within the constraint of meeting these growth targets. Benefits include more productive and climate-resilient agriculture. For the oil and gas sector, the analysis evaluates how the country can continue to grow the oil and gas industry, making better use of Nigeria's gas resources, at the same time reducing the sector's carbon footprint. The analysis of the power sector shows how the country can expand power generation and broaden access to electricity while reducing the associated emissions. This low-carbon scenario would enable Nigeria to achieve the same long-term development objectives, at lower overall cost through a more diversified mix of generation sources with a more balanced supply across regions. Finally, this analysis assesses the expected growth in CO2 emissions from on-road transport under a normal business development scenario up to the year 2035 and identifies policy and other mitigation actions at national and local levels that would reduce this growth, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. Each sectoral analysis outlines several actions that the Nigerian Government could undertake to facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy.

To sustain Africa's growth, and accelerate the eradication of extreme poverty, investment in infrastructure is fundamental. In 2010, the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic found that to enable Africa to fill its infrastructure gap, some US$93 billion per year for the next decade will need to be invested. The Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), endorsed in 2012 by the continent s Heads of State and Government, lays out an ambitious long-term plan for closing Africa s infrastructure including trough step increases in hydroelectric power generation and water storage capacity. Much of this investment will support the construction of long-lived infrastructure (e.g. dams, power stations, irrigation canals), which may be vulnerable to changes in climatic patterns, the direction and magnitude of which remain significantly uncertain.Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure evaluates -using for the first time a single consistent methodology and the state-of-the-arte climate scenarios-, the impacts of climate change on hydro-power and irrigation expansion plans in Africa s main rivers basins (Niger, Senegal, Volta, Congo, Nile, Zambezi, Orange); and outlines an approach to reduce climate risks through suitable adjustments to the planning and design process.The book finds that failure to integrate climate change in the planning and design of power and water infrastructure could entail, in scenarios of drying climate conditions, losses of hydropower revenues between 5% and 60% (depending on the basin); and increases in consumer expenditure for energy up to 3 times the corresponding baseline values. In in wet climate scenarios, business-as-usual infrastructure development could lead to foregone revenues in the range of 15% to 130% of the baseline, to the extent that the larger volume of precipitation is not used to expand the production of hydropower. Despite the large uncertainty on whether drier or wetter conditions will prevail in the future in Africa, the book finds that by modifying existing investment plans to explicitly handle the risk of large climate swings, can cut in half or more the cost that would accrue by building infrastructure on the basis of the climate of the past.

Using an original modeling framework, this report identifies promising interventions, quantifies their likely costs and benefits, and describes the policy trade-offs that will need to be addressed to reduce the vulnerability and increase the resilience of the hundreds of millions of people living in dryland regions of sub-Saharan Africa.

Drylands account for three-quarters of Sub-Saharan Africa's cropland, two-thirds of cereal production, and four-fifths of livestock holdings. Today frequent and severe shocks, especially droughts, limit the livelihood opportunities available to millions of households and undermine efforts to eradicate poverty in the drylands. Prospects for sustainable development of drylands are assessed in this book through the lens of resilience, understood here to mean the ability of people to withstand and respond to droughts and other shocks. An original model was developed expressly to consistently and coherently evaluate different type of interventions on the ground, which provided a common framework to anticipate the scale of the challenges likely to arise in drylands, as well as to generate insights into opportunities for addressing those challenges.Such modelling framework consisted in a) estimating the baseline vulnerability profiles of people living in drylands (2010), b) estimate the evolution of vulnerability by 2030 under a range of assumptions, c) calculated the number of people affected by drought in the different administrative units of each country, and d) evaluate different types of interventions in agriculture and livestock for mitigating drought impact by calculating the potential for reducing the number of people affected for each scenario and conducting a simplified · benefit/cost (B/C) analysis for each type of intervention.For livestock, simulation models were used to estimate the impacts of feed balances, livestock production, and household income resilience interventions under different climate scenarios). For agriculture, the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) framework was used to assess the potential impact on yields likely to result from adoption of five crop farming technologies: (1) drought-tolerant varieties, (2) heat-tolerant varieties, (3) additional fertilizer, (4) agroforestry practices, (S) irrigation (6) water-harvesting techniques and selected combinations thereof.