Robert E. Lucas Jr. – författare
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In the past decade macroeconomic theory has undergone a remarkable transformation. At the forefront has been the "rational expectations revolution," and this school's most brilliant exponent is Robert E. Lucas. In this elegant and relatively non-technical survey, Lucas reviews the nature and consequences of recent developments in monetary and business cycle theory. He discusses the usefulness of alternative models in determining the effects of economic policy on consumption streams and individual welfare. Drawing on a specific model of aggregate activity which represents the current frontier in business cycle research, he then examines the contemporary theory of unemployment. Finally and most controversially, he explores the role of monetary disturbances.
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Three eminent economists provide in this book a rigorous, self-contained treatment of modern economic dynamics. Nancy L. Stokey, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., and Edward C. Prescott develop the basic methods of recursive analysis and emphasize the many areas where they can usefully be applied.After presenting an overview of the recursive approach, the authors develop economic applications for deterministic dynamic programming and the stability theory of first-order difference equations. They then treat stochastic dynamic programming and the convergence theory of discrete-time Markov processes, illustrating each with additional economic applications. They also derive a strong law of large numbers for Markov processes. Finally, they present the two fundamental theorems of welfare economics and show how to apply the methods developed earlier to general equilibrium systems.The authors go on to apply their methods to many areas of economics. Models of firm and industry investment, household consumption behavior, long-run growth, capital accumulation, job search, job matching, inventory behavior, asset pricing, and money demand are among those they use to show how predictions can be made about individual and social behavior. Researchers and graduate students in many areas of economics, both theoretical and applied, will find this book essential.
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Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice was first published in 1981. Minnesota Archive Editions uses digital technology to make long-unavailable books once again accessible, and are published unaltered from the original University of Minnesota Press editions.Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, government subsidy schemes and regulations. The doctrine of rational expectations uses standard economic methods to explain how those expectations are formed.This work collects the papers that have made significant contributions to formulating the idea of rational expectations. Most of the papers deal with the connections between observed economic behavior and the evaluation of alternative economic policies.Robert E. Lucas, Jr., is professor of economics at the University of Chicago. Thomas J. Sargent is professor of economics at the University of Minnesota and adviser to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota.