Roger M. Cooke - Böcker

This is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making.Cooke considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematical foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models. Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.

A valuable guide to understanding the problem of quantifying uncertainty in dose response relations for toxic substances In today's scientific research, there exists the need to address the topic of uncertainty as it pertains to dose response modeling. Uncertainty Modeling in Dose Response is the first book of its kind to implement and compare different methods for quantifying the uncertainty in the probability of response, as a function of dose. This volume gathers leading researchers in the field to properly address the issue while communicating concepts from diverse viewpoints and incorporating valuable insights. The result is a collection that reveals the properties, strengths, and weaknesses that exist in the various approaches to bench test problems.This book works with four bench test problems that were taken from real bioassay data for hazardous substances currently under study by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The use of actual data provides readers with information that is relevant and representative of the current work being done in the field. Leading contributors from the toxicology and risk assessment communities have applied their methods to quantify model uncertainty in dose response for each case by employing various approaches, including Benchmark Dose Software methods, probabilistic inversion with isotonic regression, nonparametric Bayesian modeling, and Bayesian model averaging. Each chapter is reviewed and critiqued from three professional points of view: risk analyst/regulator, statistician/mathematician, and toxicologist/epidemiologist. In addition, all methodologies are worked out in detail, allowing readers to replicate these analyses and gain a thorough understanding of the methods.Uncertainty Modeling in Dose Response is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and biostatistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for risk assessment, toxicology, biostatistics, and environmental chemistry professionals who wish to expand their knowledge and expertise in statistical dose response modeling problems and approaches.

Mathematical models are used to simulate complex real-world phenomena in many areas of science and technology. Large complex models typically require inputs whose values are not known with certainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to quantify the overall uncertainty within a model, in order to support problem owners in model-based decision-making. In recent years there has been an explosion of interest in uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty and dependence elicitation, dependence modelling, model inference, efficient sampling, screening and sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic inversion are among the active research areas. This text provides both the mathematical foundations and practical applications in this rapidly expanding area, including: An up-to-date, comprehensive overview of the foundations and applications of uncertainty analysis.All the key topics, including uncertainty elicitation, dependence modelling, sensitivity analysis and probabilistic inversion.Numerous worked examples and applications.Workbook problems, enabling use for teaching.Software support for the examples, using UNICORN - a Windows-based uncertainty modelling package developed by the authors.A website featuring a version of the UNICORN software tailored specifically for the book, as well as computer programs and data sets to support the examples.Uncertainty Analysis with High Dimensional Dependence Modelling offers a comprehensive exploration of a new emerging field. It will prove an invaluable text for researches, practitioners and graduate students in areas ranging from statistics and engineering to reliability and environmetrics.