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      Fat-Tailed Distributions

      Data, Diagnostics and Dependence, Volume 1

      AvRoger M. Cooke,Daan Nieboer

      Inbunden, Engelska, 2014

      1 953 kr

      Beställningsvara. Skickas inom 5-8 vardagar. Fri frakt över 249 kr.

      Beskrivning

      This title is written for the numerate nonspecialist, and hopes to serve three purposes. First it gathers mathematical material from diverse but related fields of order statistics, records, extreme value theory, majorization, regular variation and subexponentiality. All of these are relevant for understanding fat tails, but they are not, to our knowledge, brought together in a single source for the target readership. Proofs that give insight are included, but for most fussy calculations the reader is referred to the excellent sources referenced in the text. Multivariate extremes are not treated. This allows us to present material spread over hundreds of pages in specialist texts in twenty pages. Chapter 5 develops new material on heavy tail diagnostics and gives more mathematical detail. Since variances and covariances may not exist for heavy tailed joint distributions, Chapter 6 reviews dependence concepts for certain classes of heavy tailed joint distributions, with a view to regressing heavy tailed variables.Second, it presents a new measure of obesity. The most popular definitions in terms of regular variation and subexponentiality invoke putative properties that hold at infinity, and this complicates any empirical estimate. Each definition captures some but not all of the intuitions associated with tail heaviness. Chapter 5 studies two candidate indices of tail heaviness based on the tendency of the mean excess plot to collapse as data are aggregated. The probability that the largest value is more than twice the second largest has intuitive appeal but its estimator has very poor accuracy. The Obesity index is defined for a positive random variable X as:Ob(X) = P (X1 +X4 > X2 +X3|X1 ≤ X2 ≤ X3 ≤ X4), Xi independent copies of X.For empirical distributions, obesity is defined by bootstrapping. This index reasonably captures intuitions of tail heaviness. Among its properties, if α > 1 then Ob(X)

      Produktinformation

      • Utgivningsdatum:2014-11-21
      • Mått:164 x 241 x 15 mm
      • Vikt:358 g
      • Format:Inbunden
      • Språk:Engelska
      • Antal sidor:144
      • Förlag:ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons Inc
      • ISBN:9781848217928

      Utforska kategorier

      • Matematisk statistik inom Naturvetenskap och teknik
      • Tillämpad matematik inom Naturvetenskap och teknik

      Mer om författaren

      Roger M. Cooke, Chauncey Starr Chair for Risk Analysis Resources for the Future, USA and Dept. Math. TU Delft, Netherlands Daan Nieboer, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam, Department of Public Health (MGZ), Netherlands Jolanta Misiewicz, Professor (Full), Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Mathematics and Information Science, Mazowieckie, Poland

      Innehållsförteckning

      • Introduction ixChapter 1 Fatness of Tail 11.1 Fat tail heuristics 11.2 History and data 41.2.1 US flood insurance claims 41.2.2 US crop loss 51.2.3 US damages and fatalities from natural disasters 51.2.4 US hospital discharge bills 61.2.5 G-Econ data 61.3 Diagnostics for heavy-tailed phenomena 61.3.1 Historical averages 71.3.2 Records 81.3.3 Mean excess 111.3.4 Sum convergence: self-similar or normal 121.3.5 Estimating the tail index 151.3.6 The obesity index 201.4 Relation to reliability theory 241.5. Conclusion and overview of the technical chapters 25Chapter 2 Order Statistics 272.1 Distribution of order statistics 272.2 Conditional distribution 322.3 Representations for order statistics 332.4 Functions of order statistics 362.4.1 Partial sums 362.4.2 Ratio between order statistics 37Chapter 3 Records 413.1 Standard record value processes 413.2 Distribution of record values 423.3 Record times and related statistics 443.4 k-records 46Chapter 4 Regularly Varying and Subexponential Distributions 494.1 Classes of heavy-tailed distributions 504.1.1 Regularly varying distribution functions 504.1.2 Subexponential distribution functions 554.1.3 Related classes of heavy-tailed distributions 584.2 Mean excess function 594.2.1 Properties of the mean excess function 60Chapter 5 Indices and Diagnostics of Tail Heaviness 655.1 Self-similarity 665.1.1 Distribution of the ratio between order statistics 695.2 The ratio as index 765.3 The obesity index 805.3.1 Theory of majorization 855.3.2 The obesity index of selected data sets 91Chapter 6 Dependence 956.1 Definition and main properties 956.2 Isotropic distributions 966.3 Pseudo-isotropic distributions 1006.3.1 Covariation as a measure of dependence for essentially heavy-tail jointly pseudo-isotropic variables 1046.3.2 Codifference 1096.3.3 The linear regression model for essentially heavy-tail distribution 110Conclusions and Perspectives 115Bibliography 119Index 123
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