Till Grüne-Yanoff - Böcker

Models are used to explore possibilities across all scientific fields. Climate models simulate the potential future climatic conditions under various emissions scenarios, macroeconomic models investigate the implications of various fiscal and monetary policy initiatives, and infectious diseases models study the spread of viral diseases under a range of conditions. Such modeling approaches have not gone ignored by philosophers of science, but they have only recently started to explicitly address modeling the possible. So far, the discussion has been spread across a variety of more or less isolated pockets of debate in the philosophy of science. Modeling the Possible: Perspectives from Philosophy of Science draws together these studies, focusing specifically on how various modeling practices probe possibilities and justify claims concerning them.The volume is divided into three sections, plus an introductory chapter. The introductory chapter provides a state-of-the-art survey of the discussions of modeling possibilities within the philosophy of science, as well as an introduction to the book’s main themes and individual papers. The three sections focus on different kinds of possibility concepts, possibility spaces, and how-possibly modeling in practical situations. The chapters contained in this volume address conceptual and theoretical issues while also presenting case studies from various scientific domains: physics, evolutionary and synthetic biology, network science, climate science, economics, and epidemiology.Essential reading for philosophers of science, epistemologists, and modelers in various scientific disciplines, Modeling the Possible is also suitable for anyone interested in model-based scientific inferences, their validity, and the policy conclusions derived from them.

Changing preferencesis a phenomenonoften invoked but rarely properlyaccounted for. Throughout the history of the social sciences, researchers have come against the possibility that their subjects’ preferenceswere affected by the phenomenato be explainedor by otherfactorsnot taken into accountin the explanation.Sporadically, attempts have been made to systematically investigate these in uences, but none of these seems to have had a lasting impact. Today we are still not much further with respect to preference change than we were at the middle of the last century. This anthology hopes to provide a new impulse for research into this important subject. In particular, we have chosen two routes to amplify this impulse. First, we stress the use of modellingtechniquesfamiliar from economicsand decision theory. Instead of constructing complex, all-encompassing theories of preference change, the authors of this volume start with very simple, formal accounts of some possible and hopefully plausible mechanism of preference change. Eventually, these models may nd their way into larger, empirically adequate theories, but at this stage, we think that the most importantwork lies in building structure.Secondly,we stress the importance of interdisciplinary exchange. Only by drawing together experts from different elds can the complex empirical and theoretical issues in the modelling of preference change be adequately investigated.